Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

OzRant: Spin That, Petrovski...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Now there's somethin' you just don't see every day - an intraday range on the All Ords that's as near to 100 points as "shit" is to proper swearing. It was almost as close to 100 points as John Howard's tongue is to George Bush's sphincter.

The thing to do here, is not to get carried away with the bear case. The bear case is logically insurmountable, but severe downdraughts like this are invariably followed by an attempt to bounce. Suffice it to say that someone who swings a decent-sized axe has decided that the pea-and-thimble game is nearing its end - but these things seldom play out in a straight line. As odd as it may sound, the next couple of days should have an easy buying bias (although I haven't even examined whether or not there's an obvious divergence; that will happen later tonight for RantPRO SPI mailgroup recipients).

Now forthose "You are a dickhead who knows nothing about oil stocks" e-mailers... where was Woodside when I declared that it stank? It was August 28th, about the time of Hurricane Katrina. It closed that day at $33.09; since then it fell as low as  $31.46 (and got way oversold - I believe I said something to that effect at the time, but you can look it up your damn selves).

Then we had the pre-Rita media-generated spike in Crude (to a lower high, just around the mid-$67s as I forecast - look that up your damn selves too) and an Energy-stock frenzy pushed WPL - and guess what happened then, young punters? It formed a CCI divergence. On September 22nd, to be exact - at a price of about $34. Sure, it went all the way to $36 and higher, but sold calls and bought puts any time after the new CCI divergence are currently "all meat".

Now as I said above, let's not get ahead of ourselves on the short-side schadenfreude; this may well turn into something truly big (and I've said for a while that the XAO is well overdue for a 500-point pullback), but several more things have to line up before we can declare a Bear's Picnic... notably, any bounce over the next couple of days has to peak relatively low, and breadth has to be saggy on bounces. Oil has to conform to the RantCast (i.e., must break below $62.33 on a closing basis), and a couple of other things that I'm too "bleh" to bother typing in right now.

I will start sticking Rant breadth tables (from the PRO area) into the odd OzRant over the next session or two (might as well - I've only just managed to get the bastards fixed). The path of cumulatiuve breadth in the 'key' indices over the next week will determine whether this is the start of a genuine bloodbath for longs, or just a first shot in a continuing struggle by the Bear Insurgency.

If I had not taken that trip to Sydney I might have been able to get the intraday RantCharts clocked in, to enable me to sticky-tape in 15-minute SPI or XAO charts in the same manner as I do with the Dow each morning. Too bad; they would be a good addition, since they are the intraday timeframe that is used for the RantPRO SPI circular.

I wonder when the Howard 'Government' will decide that selling stocks is an act of Terrorism?

OK - one last thing... read the blockquote below and weep at how insightful it was. It was written in the 1720s as part of Cato's Letters - the theme of which is basically "The State is Your Enemy". Remember its message as our liberties are eroded more and more by the vermin who seek to RULE (not 'govern') us; the encroachment of "extraordinary power" is already being advocated based on 'particular occasions' that stem from the ramifications of a century of deceitful dealing with the Arab world. We will have to wait until the 'sunset provisions' in the legislation are overturned before I can say "I told you so".

But anyway - over to Cato's Letters:

We know, by infinite Examples and Experience, that Men possessed of Power, rather than part with it, will do any thing, even the worst and the blackest, to keep it; and scarce ever any Man upon Earth went out of it as long as he could carry every thing his own Way in it . . . . This seems certain, That the Good of the World, or of their People, was not one of their Motives either for continuing in Power, or for quitting it.

It is the Nature of Power to be ever encroaching, and converting every extraordinary Power, granted at particular Times, and upon particular Occasions, into an ordinary Power, to be used at all Times, and when there is no Occasion, nor does it ever part willingly with any Advantage . . . .

Alas! Power encroaches daily upon Liberty, with a Success too evident; and the Balance between them is almost lost. Tyranny has engrossed almost the whole Earth, and striking at Mankind Root and Branch, makes the World a Slaughterhouse; and will certainly go on to destroy, till it is either destroyed itself, or, which is most likely, has left nothing else to destroy.1

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 94.70 points (-2.06%), finishing at 4496.80 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4591.50 and its low was 4496.8.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.16 billion units, 2.9% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 288 fell while 79 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 5.5:1, with 445.19million shares traded in losers while 80.95million shares traded in the day's gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 100.10 points (-2.16%), finishing at 4543.50 points. So the SPI-basis and the XAO both finished below their respective 'nearest quarters' (4500 for XAO, 4550 for XJO)... odd, that.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 56.40 points (-2.27%), finishing at 2428.80 points. Within the index members, there were 20 losers and not a single winer or unchanged component. Total volume in the ASX20 amounted to 158.09m units - all of it to the downside. And to think - New Corpse isn't in the indices anymore (it declined too - now that it's got no insto friends anymore, it will decline and decline with only periodic wiggles upwards).

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Our old pal Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$1.84 (5.21%) to $33.51 on volume of 2.22m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.75 (3.38%) to $21.45 on volume of 17.06m shares; and
  • ANZ Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.65 (2.7%) to $23.45 on volume of 6.26m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$1.51 (2.58%) to $57.10 on volume of 3.16m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.46 (2.49%) to $18.02 on volume of 1.85m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) was less slammed than the big end of the spectrum, but still fell by 40.10 points (-1.52%), finishing at 2599.80 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.010 (6.9%) to $0.155 on volume of 30,000 shares;
  • Prime Television (PRT), +$0.200 (6.35%) to $3.350 on volume of 5,000 shares; and
  • Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.001 (6.25%) to $0.017 on volume of 5.85m shares; and
  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), +$0.005 (4.76%) to $0.110 on volume of 20,000 shares; and
  • Perilya (PEM), +$0.030 (3.75%) to $0.830 on volume of 2.83m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Psivida (PSD), -$0.065 (7.78%) to $0.770 on volume of 889,000 shares;
  • Sydney Gas Ltd (SGL), -$0.035 (6.48%) to $0.505 on volume of 511,000 shares; and
  • Zinifex (ZFX), -$0.290 (6.26%) to $4.340 on volume of 5.38m shares; and
  • Keycorp (KYC), -$0.090 (6%) to $1.410 on volume of 61,000 shares; and
  • Oamps (OMP), -$0.180 (5.83%) to $2.910 on volume of 519,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4496.8-94.7-2.06%586.58m
XTLS&P/ASX 202428.8-56.4-2.27%158.09m
XFLS&P/ASX 504446.7-100.4-2.21%255.93m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003683.7-83.2-2.21%382.09m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004543.5-100.1-2.16%472.93m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004538-99.5-2.15%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504528.6-102.3-2.21%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2599.8-40.1-1.52%138.19m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume0m13.33m15.39m80.9528.68312.74
Declining Volume158.09m345.51m420.43m445.1990.04745.28

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

Not a single GICS sector rose for the day - the best that any sector could muster was XIJ Information Technology which lost -0.33% to 424.20 points.

The worst-performed sector today was XEJ Energy which lost 4.05% to 10557.10 points, thanks to an absolute hammering for our old mate Woodside - boy did it ever get a kick in the teeth. That said, though, the whole sector was in the pits - dragged lower by

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$1.840 (5.21%) to $33.510 on volume of 2.22m shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), -$0.200 (5.14%) to $3.690 on volume of 4.92m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.140 (5.02%) to $2.650 on volume of 1.43m shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.110 (4.91%) to $2.130 on volume of 869,000 shares; and
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), -$0.780 (3.9%) to $19.200 on volume of 435,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XMJ Materials which lost 3.40% to 8502.50 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Zinifex (ZFX), -$0.290 (6.26%) to $4.340 on volume of 5.38m shares;
  • Lihir Gold (LHG), -$0.095 (5.09%) to $1.770 on volume of 17.14m shares;
  • Rinker Group (RIN), -$0.840 (5.01%) to $15.940 on volume of 4.16m shares;
  • Sims Group (SMS), -$0.960 (5%) to $18.250 on volume of 685,000 shares; and
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), -$0.380 (4.94%) to $7.320 on volume of 1.06m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology424.2-1.4-0.33%11.06m
XPJProperty Trusts1814.8-20.3-1.11%52.16m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2294.1-26.9-1.16%40.8m
XSJConsumer Staples5831.7-79.5-1.34%27.29m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5500.6-109.6-1.95%56.17m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation4.15-0.05-1.19%69.11m
SGTSingapore Telecommunications1.90.020.8%22.98m
LHGLihir Gold1.77-0.1-5.09%17.14m
BHPBHP Billiton21.45-0.75-3.38%17.06m
AVOAvoca Resources0.60.1326.32%15.09m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
TIRTitan Resources0.0580.0035.45%3.54m
GDMGoldstream Mining0.380.024.11%134068
All Ords Percentage Decliners
AGIAinsworth Game Technology0.55-0.04-6.78%102095
SGLSydney Gas Ltd0.51-0.04-6.48%510710
GGNGallery Gold0.3-0.02-6.25%1.54m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503446.418-21.82-0.63%33.83m
JapanNikkei 22513689.89-48.95-0.36%0
SingaporeStraits Times2319.06-4.71-0.2%0
Hong KongHang Seng15209.94-172.27-1.12%217.85m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp927.843.080.33%0