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About all that can be said about this session is that the tech indices and the S&P500 both managed to close without seriously retesting their lows (after the tech & S&P indices bounced to new day-session highs, the S&P never got within 5 points of its session low - whereas the Dow closed within 2 S&P-point-equivalents of its low).
Don't be surprised if the indices fall apart completely on Monday (after a "hurricane didn't get us" rally, perhaps) . I'm not forecasting that that's what's going to happen, but I would not be surprised.
A lot of the afternoon part of the session was spent preventing the decline from becoming serious. The fact that it was a Friday helped - with a thin market it's easier to perform support operations. But during the course of the afternoon da Boyz were forced to scale back their ambitions: first it was to defend Dow 10275... then 10250, and finally 10225... and all failed eventually.
This session was a microcosm of recent days - a screeching decline, followed by a manic bounce, followed by another less-screeching decline. This is not the behaviour of a market that's in good shape. It's from situations like this that marekts fall apart completely.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $5.5billion, 6-day repurchase with $4.963billion in T-backed collateral undertaken at a 5.5 basis point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).
Major US Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 65.88 points (0.64%), closing out the day at 10215.22 points.
The index hit an intraday high of 10317.98 points, 6 minutes after the open; from there it was a rollercoaster, but an ugly rollercoaster (this contrasts with the S&P and Nasdaq, which were also rollercoasters, but which only broke briefly below the 'unchanged' level).
Note: some data providers - including Yahoo! - are showing 10350.98 as the day high, also set at 9:36 NY time. I was watching the market at the time that Yahoo! seems to think the Dow hit 10350-ish, and I can tell you it never got anywhere near that level. If the cash Dow had hit 10350, the Dow futures would have traded at about 10380 at some stage during the day session: however the high in the YM futures was 10345 and it was set at 5:30 p.m. Australian time, yesterday. Case closed.
After tagging 10317 on a little burst, the market turned sour. The Dow had some very heavy drags - not least of which was caterpillar, which dropped over 10% at one stage. Although CAT is not a big-cap stock (its market cap is $33bn), it's share price is relatively large, and to Dow, you'll recall, is share-price weighted.
So while the Nasdaq and the S&P were getting all giggly over Google's blowout numbers (blowout pro forma numbers, Dear Reader... almsot time to buy GOOG puts, I reckon), the Dow was really struggling. And eventually the Dow managed to bum out the other indices.
At its low, the Dow broke 10200 and fell to 10193.45 (this happened at 12:05 p.m. NY time - at which time the S&P futures were sparring with the unchanged line... they spent a total of about 25 mintues below UNCH at around midday). From there, a rally - and quite an impressive rally - took the S&P futures to a new session high... but not the Dow. Then it fell apart again, and took the Dow back to a loss for the day... but not the S&P or the tech indices.
Within the blue-chip index, 12 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being SBC Communications (SBC, +2.04% to $23.00) and Verizon Communications (VZ, +1.10% to $29.52), which accounted for 6 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 18 and were led by Caterpillar (CAT, -9.46% to $48.92) and Pfizer (PFE, -2.97% to $21.25), with these two stocks contributing -46 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 376.9m shares to 146.6m.
The broader S&P500 posted a rise of 1.79 points (0.15%), to 1179.59. Within the index, gainers numbered 294, while 190 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted in favour of the winners, but the split was pretty even: 1153.73 million units traded in the winners as compared with 1040.83 million traded in the losers .
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite gained 14.1 points (0.68%), to close at 2082.21, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 9.53 points (0.61%), to end at 1565.12 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 69, while 26 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.3:1 in favour of the winners with 457.23 million traded in the winners compared to 364.04 million in the losers .
NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.44 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.77 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10215.22 | -65.88 | -0.64% |
| S&P500 | 1179.59 | 1.79 | 0.15% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2082.21 | 14.1 | 0.68% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1565.12 | 9.53 | 0.61% |
| NYSE Volume | 2.44bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.77bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.05%... let's call it square.
- General Electric (GE) -$0.15 (0.44%) to $33.73;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.03 (0.07%) to $44.31;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.12 (0.26%) to $45.72;
- I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.16 (0.19%) to $83.33;
- Intel (INTC) -$0.47 (1.99%) to $23.15;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.10 (0.59%) to $17.03;
- eBay (EBAY) +$0.14 (0.36%) to $39.29;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.05 (0.11%) to $45.25; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.83 (1.41%) to $59.80.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2143 to 1114 for a single-day A/D reading of 1029 - which may seem odd igven the relatively modest index changes. Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1804 to 1159. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -251.2 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -177.3.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1411.9 to 982.1 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1067.7 to 663.1 million shares.
34 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 115 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 60 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 83 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 2143 | 1804 |
| Decliners | 1114 | 1159 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1411.87 | 1067.72 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 982.13 | 663.12 |
| New Highs | 34 | 60 |
| New Lows | 115 | 83 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 16.17 | 0.06 | 0.37% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 15.75 | -0.6 | -3.67% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.89 | -0.06 | -6.32% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.73 | 0 | 0% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 72.9 | -0.16 | -0.22% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds rose shaprly at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 7.1 bps to 4.609%. the 30-year bond futures closed at 113-26/32, up a nice 29/32. I'm not claiming any of that for the RantRecord - I'm content to just claim the intial bounce in the bonds from 112-19/32 to 113-7/32. Everybody knew that pullbacks were for buying though - so bondies ought to have done well out of the tip.
The middle of the yield curve was broadly higher: five year yields fell to 4.259%, and ten-year yields fell to 4.39%.
Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 8.0 bps wider at 17.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts fell to 53.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 79.0 bps for 20-years.
Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were broadly wider with the AAA-A spread on 20-years widening by 13.0 bps to 45.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread 8.0 bps wider at 8.0 bps.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 3.765 | 0.005 | 0.13% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 4.19 | -0.02 | -0.48% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.259 | -0.066 | -1.53% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.39 | -0.069 | -1.55% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.609 | -0.071 | -1.52% |
The Banks Index advanced 0.53 points (0.55%), ending the day at 96.4; within the index,
- US Bancorp (USB) +$0.56 (1.97%) to $28.93;
- Mellon Financial (MEL) +$0.45 (1.43%) to $31.89;
- PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.70 (1.21%) to $58.34;
- Suntrust Banks (STI) +$0.82 (1.18%) to $70.22; and
- JPMorganChase (JPM) +$0.38 (1.09%) to $35.13.
The Broker-dealer Index advanced 1.32 points (0.76%), to end the session at 174.52; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- E*Trade (ET) +$0.58 (3.35%) to $17.88;
- Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.40 (2.02%) to $20.21;
- Legg Mason (LM) +$2.06 (1.99%) to $105.60;
- A G Edwards (AGE) +$0.28 (0.69%) to $41.00; and
- Raymond James (RJF) +$0.16 (0.52%) to $31.20.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index gained 2.04 points (0.46%), to 441.85
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.85 (4.05%) to $21.85;
- Xilinx (XLNX) +$0.86 (3.77%) to $23.67;
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) +$0.75 (3.42%) to $22.69;
- Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.75 (2.52%) to $30.52; and
- Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) +$0.16 (2.09%) to $7.80.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold rose $5.90 (1.27%) to close at $469.10 per ounce.
The Gold Bugs Index gained 5.89 points (2.73%), closing at 221.9
- Golden Star (GSS) +$0.15 (5.91%) to $2.69;
- Goldcorp (GG) +$0.92 (5.22%) to $18.53;
- Randgold Resources (GOLD) +$0.71 (5.13%) to $14.56;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.31 (4.75%) to $6.83; and
- Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.68 (3.51%) to $20.04.
Silver rose $0.04 (0.52%) to close at $7.7 per ounce.
The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 2.94 points (2.88%), ending the day at 104.93 points.
- Goldcorp (GG) +$0.92 (5.22%) to $18.53;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.31 (4.75%) to $6.83;
- Barrick Gold (ABX) +$0.97 (3.81%) to $26.40; and
- Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.68 (3.51%) to $20.04.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 469.10 | 5.90 | 1.27% |
| Silver | 7.70 | 0.04 | 0.52% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 104.93 | 2.94 | 2.88% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 221.9 | 5.89 | 2.73% |
Oil Market
Oil was firmer, rising by $0.61 per barrel, closing at $60.63 per barrel. It posted a session low all the way down at $59.12, so the rally off the low was pretty impressive. Obvoiously folks are a little less enthuisiastic about the journalistic "booga booga" regarding the Hurricane... once bitten, twice shy; twice bitten and you start to get skeptical.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 11.53 points (1.26%), ending the day at 924.16
- Amerada Hess (AHC) +$3.54 (3.14%) to $116.29;
- Sunoco (SUN) +$1.58 (2.4%) to $67.55; and
- Marathon Oil (MRO) +$1.04 (1.85%) to $57.32.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index gained 2.12 points (1.38%), at 155.57
- National Oilwells/Varco (NOV) +$2.57 (4.66%) to $57.75;
- Transocean (RIG) +$1.55 (2.9%) to $54.94; and
- Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.30 (2.51%) to $12.26.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 331.37 | -0.03 | -0.01% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 60.63 | 0.61 | 1.02% |
| Heating Oil | 1.8997 | 0 | 0.16% |
| Natural Gas | 12.872 | -0.11 | -0.81% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.6737 | 0.04 | 2.32% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 924.16 | 11.53 | 1.26% |
| Oil Service Index | 155.57 | 2.12 | 1.38% |
Currency Markets
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 90.25 | 0.48 | 0.53% |
| Euro | 1.1949 | -0.0074 | -0.62% |
| Yen | 115.935 | 0.61 | 0.53% |
| Sterling | 1.7676 | -0.0068 | -0.38% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7486 | -0.0043 | -0.57% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.2925 | 0.0049 | 0.38% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8421 | -0.0066 | -0.78% |
