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Well, I think it can now be stated openly that there was a 'nigger in the woodpile', as the saying used to go. I had wondered why it would be that recent SPISpy turning points had been greeted by sudden, inexplicable adverse moves - almost all starting within five minutes after the time indicated by the SPISpy, regardless of the time of day. Was it perhaps a sudden rush of nuffiness into the SPISpy's entrail and vital juices? Couldn't be. But it had been happening since the niddle of last week - and kept happeneing right up until yesterday... yesterday's 3 p.m. SPISpy entry (short from 4670) went nowhere until after 4:10 p.m., when all of a sudden someone went hunting for stops. There was no other explanation for it: someone used the thin, post-market period to drive the SPI up almost 20 points on absolutely no volume, looking for stops.
Then I found it.
Ordinarily, I would not say specifically that stop-ticklers were looking for SPISpy stops since (a) we don't use physical stops anyhow; and (b) 30 folks trading as few as 1 contract and as many as 10 gives an average of less than 150 contracts which is hardly worth chasing.That said, I happened to 'accidentally' leave one SPISpy subscriber off the list today (whose email address is from a domestic futures broker), and what do you know? No strange 'adverse move' like those which have magically happened - to the minute, pretty much - at the time declared by each SPISpy e-mail since this chap joined. I would rather refund his subscription (which I've done) than have folks exposed to stop-running. And if it doesn't show you the fallacy of having 'hard' stops, I dunno what will... hard stops would have got picked off like fish in a barrel.
Anyhow - the eventual outcome for yesterday's SPISpy was OK, although it had to put up with almost a 25-point after-hours 'negative excursion'... and if you used a physical stop (which is specifically verboten so you only have yourself to blame) you either took the loss or tried to re-enter at a better price (in which case you're pretty good, and don't need the SPISpy, frankly).
The exit today was sent out at 11:21 a.m., with a very specific indication that the market would reverse up starting at 11:30. Here's the excerpt:
Good morning folks.
Close any remaining positions from yesterday.
Those with more than 2 lots should be holding one or more contracts short from 4670 (yesterday's 3 p.m. entry). One-lotters will be out +3 - a disappointing outcome considering the requirement to 'ride' a position for 25 points of negative excursion - and2-lotters will be out +3, +6 in line with yesterday's SPISpy.
There is likely to be a bounce beginning at 11:30, so it's an opportune time to exit any remaining contracts. SPI currently 4637 (so those with 3 or more contracts averaged about 14 SPI points on this one - 3 for the first contract, 6 for the second, and 33 for the third...).
The low for the session was about three minutes before the e-mail went out, and the actual exit price was 4630-33, not 4637 - so for those trading more than 2 lots the outcome was slightly better than outlined above. The bounce didn't quite catch the low, but it still yielded the required +3 within 7 minutes. If our recently-refunded friend thinks he can re-subscribe with a dodgy e-mail address, I guess we'll then see how good my IP tracking is.
But I digress.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 24.90 points (-0.54%), finishing at 4585.30 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4610.20 just after the open, and its low was 4570.1 set just before 11:20 a.m. Sydney time.
Total volume traded on the ASX was a tad under 940 million units, 3.5% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 171 fell while 122 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 227.84million shares traded in gainers while 207.68million shares traded in the day's losers ..
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 26.30 points (-0.56%), finishing at 4639.00 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 16.70 points (-0.67%), finishing at 2489.30 points. Within the index members, there were only 4 that rose, and 16 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 70.06m shares while volume in the losers totalled 52.86m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.220 (0.99%) to $22.400 on volume of 4.72m shares;
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.020 (0.52%) to $3.900 on volume of 53.77m shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.010 (0.18%) to $5.660 on volume of 6.49m shares; and
- AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.010 (0.13%) to $7.880 on volume of 5.08m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Alumina (AWC), -$0.150 (2.28%) to $6.420 on volume of 2.49m shares;
- Woolworths (WOW), -$0.33 (1.89%) to $17.10 on volume of 3.27m shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.66 (1.79%) to $36.23 on volume of 934,000 shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.39 (1.76%) to $21.83 on volume of 14.07m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.61 (1.73%) to $34.69 on volume of 2.27m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) fell by 10.30 points (-0.40%), finishing at 2595.20 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Centennial Coal Company (CEY), +$0.290 (7.65%) to $4.080 on volume of 4.5m shares;
- Perseverance Corporation (PSV), +$0.020 (6.25%) to $0.340 on volume of 3.45m shares; and
- Integrated Group (IWF), +$0.100 (5.88%) to $1.800 on volume of 22,000 shares; and
- Virotec International (VTI), +$0.045 (5.45%) to $0.870 on volume of 70,000 shares; and
- Austereo Group (AEO), +$0.065 (4.21%) to $1.610 on volume of 445,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Iinet (IIN), -$0.240 (9.16%) to $2.380 on volume of 182,000 shares;
- Nylex (NLX), -$0.010 (6.25%) to $0.150 on volume of 21.33m shares; and
- Croesus Mining (CRS), -$0.015 (4.62%) to $0.310 on volume of 2.47m shares; and
- Antares Energy (AZZ), -$0.020 (4.21%) to $0.455 on volume of 663,000 shares; and
- Austral Coal (AUO), -$0.040 (3.85%) to $1.000 on volume of 1,000 shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4585.3 | -24.9 | -0.54% | 527.68m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2489.3 | -16.7 | -0.67% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4539.9 | -26.3 | -0.58% | 246.71m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3767.7 | -21.5 | -0.57% | 342.02m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4639 | -26.3 | -0.56% | 410.93m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4631.2 | -25.6 | -0.55% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4682.2 | -24.4 | -0.52% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2595.2 | -10.3 | -0.4% | 139.88m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 4 | 24 | 58 | 122 | 68 | 389 |
| Declines | 16 | 65 | 112 | 171 | 81 | 548 |
| Advancing Volume | 70.06m | 161.46m | 195.91m | 227.84 | 43.21 | 445.71 |
| Declining Volume | 52.86m | 141.75m | 163.03m | 207.68 | 61.35 | 371.79 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day - the only sector that recorded a gain - was XTJ Telecommunications which gained 0.45% to 1445.10 points thanks to a bounce in Telstra, although bot hstocks in the sector rose -
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.020 (0.52%) to $3.900 on volume of 53.77m shares; and
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.010 (0.18%) to $5.540 on volume of 1.08m shares.
The worst-performed sector today was XUJ Utilities which lost 1.38% to 5503.10 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- Alinta (ALN), -$0.380 (3.31%) to $11.100 on volume of 927,000 shares;
- Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.030 (1.13%) to $2.620 on volume of 60,000 shares;
- Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.170 (1.03%) to $16.290 on volume of 547,000 shares;
- Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.030 (0.76%) to $3.900 on volume of 170,000 shares; and
- Envestra (ENV), -$0.005 (0.44%) to $1.135 on volume of 303,000 shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XIJ Information Technology which lost 1.19% to 448.50 points. The sector was pulled down by
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.150 (2.13%) to $6.900 on volume of 969,000 shares;
- Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.010 (1.85%) to $0.530 on volume of 188,000 shares;
- Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.000 (0%) to $1.780 on volume of 347,000 shares;
- ERG (ERG), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.125 on volume of 751,000 shares; and
- Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.010 (0.3%) to $3.390 on volume of 228,000 shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1445.1 | 6.5 | 0.45% | 54.85m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5282.5 | -4.9 | -0.09% | 71.06m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5698.9 | -17.9 | -0.31% | 47.45m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5509.6 | -20.7 | -0.37% | 88.89m |
| XEJ | Energy | 10465.2 | -57.9 | -0.55% | 20.54m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1861.5 | -11.2 | -0.6% | 44.24m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5943.6 | -45.8 | -0.76% | 19.8m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6269.2 | -51.9 | -0.82% | 11.65m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2232.5 | -20.3 | -0.9% | 25.66m |
| XMJ | Materials | 8699.6 | -93.3 | -1.06% | 103.23m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 448.5 | -5.4 | -1.19% | 5.1m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5503.1 | -76.9 | -1.38% | 2.66m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 3.9 | 0.02 | 0.52% | 53.77m |
| BIL | Brambles Industries | 9.76 | 0.54 | 5.86% | 37.05m |
| NLX | Nylex | 0.15 | -0.01 | -6.25% | 21.33m |
| LHG | Lihir Gold | 2.35 | 0.03 | 1.29% | 14.73m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 21.83 | -0.39 | -1.76% | 14.07m |
| CAZ | Cazaly Resources | 1.76 | 0.26 | 17.33% | 10.15m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAT | Autron Corporation | 0.099 | 0.013 | 15.12% | 1.35m |
| CEY | Centennial Coal Company | 4.08 | 0.29 | 7.65% | 4.5m |
| PSV | Perseverance Corporation | 0.34 | 0.02 | 6.25% | 3.45m |
| TRY | Troy Resources | 3.18 | 0.18 | 6% | 68850 |
| BIL | Brambles Industries | 9.76 | 0.54 | 5.86% | 37.05m |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IIN | Iinet | 2.38 | -0.24 | -9.16% | 182064 |
| ABI | Ambri | 0.091 | -0.009 | -9% | 830456 |
| ERA | Energy Resources Of Australia | 12.95 | -1.05 | -7.5% | 11222 |
| NLX | Nylex | 0.15 | -0.01 | -6.25% | 21.33m |
| PEP | Peplin | 0.66 | -0.04 | -5.71% | 160854 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3302.433 | -8 | -0.24% | 27.43m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14911.88 | -75.06 | -0.5% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1275.5 | -18.24 | -1.41% | 469635 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2298.88 | -9.66 | -0.42% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 14980.75 | -119.25 | -0.79% | 104.09m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 898.32 | -1.82 | -0.2% | 0 |
