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Well, another six hours have passed and the Euro is still locked in that 1.2100-1.2090 range. It's dipped below it by a couple of pips, and moved above it by a couple of pips, but it's pretty much stuck there. Methinks that there's enough uncertainty regarding the ECB's rate decision today, to keep the stupid thing static until some insto leans on the keyboard... the questio nis - which key? Up, or down?
The fact that Asian-session equities were very strong but the Euro did bupkes, is somewhat surprising - usually equity strength of any sort generates buying pressure in USD (from Yen sells during the Asian session, and Euro sells during the European & US sessions... but both tend to move all other crosses).
Europe will most likely open with a roar, which ought to weaken the Euro a good 20-30 pips. If it doesn't then my short (as I said earlier, from 1.2089 in the EC futures) is going to be difficult to exit with any gain whatsoever.
that brings me to something I was thinking about earlier today. I was think of the mantra "Never short a dull market" as it applies to currencies.
See, the ForEx market (whether spot or futures) is a bilateral market: if the Euro/USD market is boring, then which 'short' is at risk? After all, a short position (say, short EC futures) is clearly a short of the Euro - however a long EC position is equivalent to a short USD. If the market is dull, it is dull for both sets of shorts.
The retort is obvious: the 'short USD' that is embodied in a long Euro is actually "synthetic" because it's not a short of USD against all crosses - but that's not really all that helpful.
Anyhow - the reason I shorted EC (EURUSD) is mostly because it had been on a bit of a gallop (upwards, as predicted) and was overbought on all timeframes except daily (it hit overbought on daily charts on October 27th, and the thing had fallen 2.5 full cents in four sessions so the daily is has provided one lungful of downward pressure... ) . This short was only meant to be a very-short-term thing before the ECB decision prompted a second-effort upwards.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by an eye-popping 52.10 points (1.18%), finishing at 4460.90 points. The index opened at its low (4408.8) and shot upwards like a rocket... until 10:30 when the usual very-short-term pullback occurred. By that time the All Ords was above 4450, and only a 'pop' at the end of the session enabled the index to finish above its 10:30 level. The session high (4467.40) was achieved just after 2:30 p.m. (which is another important time-point in the Australian trading day... of which, more in subsequent weeks, but in another place) .
Total volume traded on the ASX was about 920 million units, 1.4% above its 10-day average. Of the 486 stocks in the index, 214 rose while 148 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.4:1, with 379.85million shares traded in gainers while 157.89million shares traded in the day's losers ..
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 57.40 points (1.29%), finishing at 4513.70 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 35.50 points (1.48%), finishing at 2434.00 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and 2 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 102.18 while volume in the losers totalled 26.67m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.640 (3.12%) to $21.150 on volume of 33.1m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.910 (2.84%) to $32.910 on volume of 1.15m shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.580 (2.8%) to $21.280 on volume of 20.62m shares;
- Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.250 (2.53%) to $10.140 on volume of 3.81m shares; and
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.280 (2.24%) to $58.390 on volume of 1.54m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.020 (0.48%) to $4.180 on volume of 17.52m shares;
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.01 (0.04%) to $23.38 on volume of 9.15m shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.04 (0.11%) to $35.64 on volume of 1.76m shares;
- St George Bank (SGB), +$0.13 (0.48%) to $27.46 on volume of 2.08m shares;
- Alumina (AWC), +$0.03 (0.52%) to $5.83 on volume of 1.79m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) rose by 11.80 points (0.47%), finishing at 2530.30 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Genetic Technologies (GTG), +$0.070 (13.86%) to $0.575 on volume of 2.9m shares;
- Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.035 (7.37%) to $0.510 on volume of 149,000 shares; and
- Emperor Mines (EMP), +$0.015 (5.77%) to $0.275 on volume of 4,000 shares; and
- Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.120 (4.76%) to $2.640 on volume of 1.48m shares; and
- Downer EDI (DOW), +$0.250 (3.97%) to $6.540 on volume of 1.61m shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.002 (11.76%) to $0.015 on volume of 28.71m shares;
- Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.008 (8.51%) to $0.086 on volume of 804,000 shares; and
- Globe International (GLB), -$0.020 (6.35%) to $0.295 on volume of 291,000 shares; and
- Perilya (PEM), -$0.045 (5.52%) to $0.770 on volume of 2.63m shares; and
- Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.220 (4.89%) to $4.280 on volume of 1.14m shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4460.9 | 52.1 | 1.18% | 575.51m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2434 | 35.5 | 1.48% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4428.3 | 59.2 | 1.35% | 219.79m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3665.6 | 48.4 | 1.34% | 403.35m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4513.7 | 57.4 | 1.29% | 484.07m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4506.6 | 56 | 1.26% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4486.2 | 54.8 | 1.24% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2530.3 | 11.8 | 0.47% | 153.31m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 18 | 74 | 128 | 214 | 80 | 497 |
| Declines | 2 | 16 | 48 | 148 | 79 | 432 |
| Advancing Volume | 102.18m | 299.1m | 348.04m | 379.85 | 59.19 | 533.09 |
| Declining Volume | 26.67m | 74.39m | 92.56m | 157.89 | 73.1 | 256.04 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 2.00% to 8420.70 points. The sector was helped by
- Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.120 (4.76%) to $2.640 on volume of 1.48m shares;
- Smorgon Steel Group (SSX), +$0.055 (3.81%) to $1.500 on volume of 5.46m shares;
- Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.055 (3.13%) to $1.815 on volume of 9.29m shares;
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.150 (3.09%) to $5.000 on volume of 3.86m shares; and
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.050 (3.05%) to $1.690 on volume of 772,000 shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 1.68% to 10051.50 points; it's clear that every man and his dog thinks thatthe bottom is now in for the Crude Oil price.... hmmm. If every man and his dog was usually right, then the equity markets would not be littered with the financial corpses of a million failed stock traders. This gives me some important grist for the mental mill as far as the likely trajectory of oil prices is concerned: if everyone expects them to reverse upwards, then the likelihood is that they will continue to decline.
That said, it appears that someone rather heavyweight is responsible for these strange intra-session bounces in Crude: perhaps da Boz realise that is oil prices decline further, the S&P500 earnings will look sickly oging forward (since a huge chunk of S&P earnings this quarter was the result of Energy sector stocks, whose profits exploded thanks to high Crude prices.
it doesn't really matter - the short/covered call/bought put strategy in Woodside was an absolute pearler for over a month and a half, and nothing lasts forever.
The sector leaders in eenrgy today were -
- Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.080 (3.33%) to $2.480 on volume of 292,000 shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.910 (2.84%) to $32.910 on volume of 1.15m shares;
- Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.460 (2.13%) to $22.030 on volume of 936,000 shares;
- Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.150 (1.52%) to $10.000 on volume of 223,000 shares; and
- Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.090 (1.36%) to $6.700 on volume of 1.29m shares.
The bronze today went to XHJ Healthcare which gained 1.54% to 5929.90 points. The sector was led by
- Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.310 (6.2%) to $5.310 on volume of 3.97m shares;
- Healthscope (HSP), +$0.180 (3.16%) to $5.880 on volume of 445,000 shares;
- Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.310 (2.2%) to $14.400 on volume of 505,000 shares;
- Sigma Company (SIG), +$0.250 (2.03%) to $12.570 on volume of 457,000 shares; and
- Peptech (PTD), +$0.025 (2.02%) to $1.265 on volume of 386,000 shares.
The worst-performed sector today - the only secor to register a loss - was XIJ Information Technology which lost a scant 0.05% to 430.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- MYOB (MYO), -$0.025 (2.26%) to $1.080 on volume of 631,000 shares;
- Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.020 (1.11%) to $1.780 on volume of 478,000 shares;
- Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.005 (0.85%) to $0.580 on volume of 475,000 shares;
- IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.010 (0.23%) to $4.290 on volume of 174,000 shares; and
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.010 (0.15%) to $6.480 on volume of 1.15m shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which actually gained 0.03% to 1526.90 points. It was once of those very rare occasions where Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand trumped Telstra. TEL gained $0.13 (2.43%) to $5.49 on volume of 1.82m shares, while TLS lost $0.02 (0.48%) to $4.180 on volume of 17.52m shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 8420.7 | 165.5 | 2% | 112.79m |
| XEJ | Energy | 10051.5 | 165.7 | 1.68% | 16.93m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 5929.9 | 90 | 1.54% | 14.19m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1839.3 | 25.3 | 1.39% | 103.62m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5368.3 | 66.6 | 1.26% | 178.14m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5531.5 | 66.5 | 1.22% | 79.62m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5845.2 | 66.1 | 1.14% | 39.15m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2212.1 | 17.3 | 0.79% | 24.75m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5016 | 31.9 | 0.64% | 56.89m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5199.5 | 13.8 | 0.27% | 5.33m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1526.9 | 0.4 | 0.03% | 19.35m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 430.5 | -0.2 | -0.05% | 5.36m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRT | DB Rreef Trust | 1.37 | 0.03 | 1.86% | 40.25m |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corporation | 21.15 | 0.64 | 3.12% | 33.09m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 21.28 | 0.58 | 2.8% | 20.62m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.38 | -0.03 | -0.88% | 18.94m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 4.18 | -0.02 | -0.48% | 17.52m |
| BPC | Burns, Philp & Company | 1.13 | 0.03 | 2.74% | 12m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MST | Metal Storm | 0.22 | 0.03 | 15.79% | 2.96m |
| GTG | Genetic Technologies | 0.58 | 0.07 | 13.86% | 2.9m |
| PEP | Peplin | 0.65 | 0.07 | 12.07% | 538638 |
| NAL | Norwood Abbey | 0.51 | 0.04 | 7.37% | 149395 |
| RMD | Resmed Inc | 5.31 | 0.31 | 6.2% | 3.97m |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUL | Multiemedia | 0.015 | -0.002 | -11.76% | 28.71m |
| BTA | Biota Holdings | 1.67 | -0.19 | -10% | 6.75m |
| OEC | Orbital Corporation | 0.086 | -0.008 | -8.51% | 804070 |
| CBH | CBH Resources | 0.19 | -0.02 | -7.32% | 4.34m |
| GLB | Globe International | 0.3 | -0.02 | -6.35% | 291288 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3323.437 | 37.85 | 1.15% | 42.34m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 13894.78 | 26.92 | 0.19% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1215.89 | 7.51 | 0.62% | 357339 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2255.54 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 14622.82 | 25.34 | 0.17% | 106.69m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 913.92 | 3.16 | 0.35% | 0 |
