Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

OzRant: What's That Smell? Frying Bull's Balls...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Those who hitched up to the SPISpy have had to endure some sneaky-bastard behaviour from someone who thinks that small-lot newbie SPI traers are easily intimidated; with few exceptions there has been a decent-sized spike in the opposite direction to the SPISpy's advocated direction - before the dominant momentum re-asserts itself and the market goes as required.

Take a look at today's SPI chart for example: I've marked in the points at which SPISpy e-mails were distributed, and you can see that the SPI spiked (on low volume during the thin lunch period... marked 'Bastard' on the chart) more than ten points in a bid to 'shake out' small-lot traders - and then headed in the desired direction (and how!).

SPI 15-minute intraday

Still, the SPISpy gain table gets credited with (5,8,20,56)... that is, the first contract made 5 points, the second made 8, the third tranche made 20 and the 'rider' for those trading more than 4 lots is currently up 56 SPI points (the SPI is at 4621 at the moment, not 4626 as when the chart was drawn). See "SPIRant: The Shenangians Continue" for why that's the case, and how to read the scorecard...

My guess is that the little adverse spikes are deliberate - and it's someone who knows that SPISpy one-lotters are only targetting 3 SPI points a day (per the SPISpy Rules of Engagement). By driving the SPI that far in the 'wrong' direction, it throws a wrench in the risk-return calculation for small-lot holders - effectively forcing them to expect to have to endure a 10-point adverse move in order to scalp a 3-point gain (although today's was explicitly declare to be a 5-point target): those sums stink, and the hope is that small-lotters resign from the game before they get to become 2- or-more-lotters. There's nothing that da Boyz hate more than a successful small-lot trader.

If I was a small-lot SPI trader, I would not sweat it; I know it's annoying to have to take a 3-5 point gain and then watch the bigger kids gobble up money for jam, but it's better to grow a small account slowly than take additional risk. Take an average 3 SPI points a day from the market and you wind up a 2-lot trader within six weeks (or you can start over with one lot, but playing entirely with 'house money').

Major Market Indices

A decent intraday reversal - everything looked so hunky-dory at lunchtime (just as I hit "Send" on the day's first SPISpy missive), but then it fell out of bed in a pretty impressive way. The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 1.70 points (-0.04%), finishing at 4583.60 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4621.60 (almost could call it 4625-ish) and its low was 4583.5.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.28 billion units, 21.1% above its 10-day average. Of the 487 stocks in the index, 157 rose while 117 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.3:1, with 386.21million shares traded in losers while 305.13million shares traded in the day's gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 4.20 points (-0.09%), finishing at 4634.80 points - and the SPI continued to drop after the cash market closed.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 3.80 points (-0.15%), finishing at 2485.50 points. Within the index members, there were 9 that rose, and 11 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 56.79 while volume in the losers totalled 101.16m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.210 (0.89%) to $23.910 on volume of 7.19m shares;
  • Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$0.520 (0.77%) to $67.820 on volume of 1.33m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.260 (0.75%) to $34.950 on volume of 2.46m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.410 (0.67%) to $61.760 on volume of 3.32m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.120 (0.63%) to $19.080 on volume of 3.66m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.170 (2.16%) to $7.710 on volume of 10.08m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.69 (1.9%) to $35.54 on volume of 2.03m shares;
  • St George Bank (SGB), -$0.46 (1.6%) to $28.30 on volume of 2.3m shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.26 (1.3%) to $19.80 on volume of 1.31m shares;
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.05 (1.28%) to $3.85 on volume of 48.02m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 18.30 points (0.71%), finishing at 2613.50 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Nylex (NLX), +$0.025 (16.67%) to $0.175 on volume of 29.17m shares;
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.015 (11.11%) to $0.150 on volume of 1.11m shares; and
  • Silex Systems (SLX), +$0.195 (10.18%) to $2.110 on volume of 886,000 shares; and
  • Psivida (PSD), +$0.045 (7.56%) to $0.640 on volume of 999,000 shares; and
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.240 (5.26%) to $4.800 on volume of 226,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Iinet (IIN), -$0.470 (19.75%) to $1.910 on volume of 4.28m shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (7.69%) to $0.012 on volume of 73.25m shares; and
  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.020 (5.97%) to $0.315 on volume of 228,000 shares; and
  • Volante Group (VGL), -$0.035 (4.12%) to $0.815 on volume of 850,000 shares; and
  • Virotec International (VTI), -$0.030 (3.45%) to $0.840 on volume of 146,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4583.6-1.7-0.04%828.11m
XTLS&P/ASX 202485.5-3.8-0.15%0
XFLS&P/ASX 504530-9.9-0.22%326.07m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003761.5-6.2-0.16%523.19m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004634.8-4.2-0.09%637.47m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004627.2-4-0.09%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504689.47.20.15%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2613.518.30.71%266.39m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume56.79m177.25m240.82m305.13111.83589.45
Declining Volume101.16m264.33m294.5m386.21111.12511.25

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XIJ Information Technology which gained 0.54% to 450.90 points. The sector was helped by

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.100 (1.45%) to $7.000 on volume of 1.25m shares;
  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.015 (0.84%) to $1.795 on volume of 512,000 shares;
  • ERG (ERG), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.125 on volume of 169,000 shares;
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.530 on volume of 133,000 shares; and
  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.040 (0.92%) to $4.300 on volume of 245,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XDJ Consumer Discretionary which gained 0.31% to 2239.50 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Miller's Retail (MRL), +$0.040 (3.51%) to $1.180 on volume of 744,000 shares;
  • Housewares International (HWI), +$0.050 (3.11%) to $1.660 on volume of 648,000 shares;
  • Pacifica Group (PBB), +$0.050 (2.62%) to $1.960 on volume of 403,000 shares;
  • Village Roadshow (VRLPA), +$0.050 (2.22%) to $2.300 on volume of 521,000 shares; and
  • West Australian Newspapers (WAN), +$0.180 (2.2%) to $8.370 on volume of 605,000 shares.

The bronze today went toXPJ Property Trusts which gained 0.23% to 1865.80 points. The sector was led by

  • Galileo Shopping America Trust (GSA), +$0.020 (1.71%) to $1.190 on volume of 1.97m shares;
  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), +$0.060 (0.96%) to $6.310 on volume of 3.59m shares;
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), +$0.010 (0.8%) to $1.265 on volume of 12.47m shares;
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.010 (0.74%) to $1.370 on volume of 10.4m shares; and
  • CFS Gandel Retail Trust (GAN), +$0.010 (0.52%) to $1.925 on volume of 12.36m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 1.11% to 1429.10 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.050 (1.28%) to $3.850 on volume of 48.02m shares; and
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.020 (0.36%) to $5.520 on volume of 2.42m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XNJ Industrials which lost 0.32% to 5265.80 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Leighton Holdings (LEI), -$0.350 (2.11%) to $16.220 on volume of 1.21m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.690 (1.9%) to $35.540 on volume of 2.03m shares;
  • Transurban Group (TCL), -$0.120 (1.74%) to $6.770 on volume of 3.82m shares;
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), -$0.030 (0.85%) to $3.520 on volume of 5.61m shares; and
  • Brambles Industries (BIL), -$0.070 (0.72%) to $9.690 on volume of 35.2m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology450.92.40.54%4.12m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2239.570.31%46.44m
XPJProperty Trusts1865.84.30.23%132.23m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5688.6-10.3-0.18%76.54m
XSJConsumer Staples5927.9-15.7-0.26%43.1m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation3.85-0.05-1.28%48.02m
BILBrambles Industries9.69-0.07-0.72%35.2m
DYLDeep Yellow0.078-0.037-32.17%33.48m
BHPBHP Billiton21.870.040.18%17.59m
FCNFalcon Minerals0.620.1222.77%16.47m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
LYCLynas Corporation0.150.0211.11%1.11m
SLXSilex Systems2.110.210.18%886199
GGNGallery Gold0.380.037.14%6.04m
All Ords Percentage Decliners
TMOTomato Technologies0.34-0.03-8.11%443104
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.32-0.02-5.97%227900
BGFBallarat Goldfields0.34-0.02-5.56%2.75m
BBBB Digital0.27-0.02-5.36%888299

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503317.76815.340.46%44.16m
JapanNikkei 22514959.832.10.22%0
SingaporeStraits Times2315.1412.260.53%0
Hong KongHang Seng15036.898.130.05%98.87m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp895.23-3.4-0.38%0