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Tuesday, December 20, 2005

OzRant: Dip 'n' Bounce... But Late...

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After a dip to cleanse the palate, everything stabilised and off she shot. The market clearly mis-timed both the dip and the recovery, but thankfully I spotted that it had screwed up in plenty of time to prevent damage.

When I say that the market mis-timed its dip (and therefore the start of its bounce) perhaps I should best explain what I mean.

And what I mean is this...

Initially (prior to the open this morning) I had expected the thing to dip between the open and 10:30 a.m., at which point it was supposed to be time to buy. When it opened too strong, I pointed out (in the e-mail I've reproduced below) that the market had got it wrong, and therefore the 10:30 buy side trade was called off.

Subject: No Long At 10:30 - Opened Too High.

Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 10:10:06 AEDST

From: SPISpy List Admin

Don't take the long position at 10:30 as previously indicated - there was no dip at the open. Wait for an update (likely to be a short).



Now, everyone (including the spikeleteer) was expecting the next RantMail to declare a sell. Sucked in. I had news for them... here's the next update:

Subject: Buy side - fire at will.

Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 11:00:44 AEDST

From: SPISpy List Admin

Buggers - the dip that was supposed to happen in the half-hour after the open, happened between 10:30 and 11.

Buy side. SPI (Mar06) at 4627. Targets (5, 9, 12). Note the fixed target for final units; if the second target is hit, move stops for all final units to breakeven.



Within 25 minutes, the SPI was up at 2650 and everyone ought to have been out, with another (5,9,12) in the account. Huzzah...

Sure, the exit seems early in hindsight. Hindsight's great - you can pick every top and every bottom when you're not trying to discern what is happening beyond the right-hand margin (look at a chart - the right-hand margin is the last plotted bar). 

Bear in mind that for those of a more adventurous bent, the Rules of Engagement permit the retention of a partial position on a 'fielder's choice' once the second target is hit; that's the reason for moving stops to breakeven. So anyone trading more than 2 contracts was well within their rights to think "Bugger exiting with 12 - I will wait to see where this thing takes me". But in the intersts of accuracy-in-reporting, the RantRecord only declares the 12 (sometimes the third target is 'open' - in which case it is expected that the trend will not soften).

Hard targets can be a bugger at times (since - as with today - they can leave the bulk of the day's move on the table), but so what? Since November 21 the market has gone nowhere, and yet even one-lot SPISpyers have trousered about 50 SPI points per contract. That doesn't suck.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 15.90 points (0.35%), finishing at 4616.70 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4620.10 at 1 p.m., after hitting its low (at 4583.9) literally ninety seconds before I hit "Send" on the SPISpy 11:00 a.m. update that declared a free-fire zone on the buy side.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 817 million units, 22.5% below its 10-day average. Of the 490 stocks in the index, 142 rose and 119 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.6:1, with 219.46million shares traded in gainers while 139.84million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 16.80 points (0.36%), finishing at 4672.20 points. The SPI itself went up like a skyrocket in the last five minutes of SPI traade (i.e., twenty minutes after the ASX clsoed), adding 10 points in five minutes. 

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 12.80 points (0.51%), finishing at 2511.80 points. Within the index members, there were 12 that rose, and 8 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 70.48 while volume in the losers totalled 20.72m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.690 (2.65%) to $65.500 on volume of 3.7m shares;
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.060 (1.57%) to $3.880 on volume of 30.11m shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.310 (1.31%) to $23.910 on volume of 5.06m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.230 (1.05%) to $22.100 on volume of 10.06m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.200 (1.03%) to $19.570 on volume of 2.02m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Macquarie Bank (MBL), -$0.440 (0.65%) to $67.200 on volume of 498,000 shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.05 (0.5%) to $10.03 on volume of 3.17m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.07 (0.42%) to $16.58 on volume of 3.23m shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.09 (0.4%) to $22.61 on volume of 6.93m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.06 (0.34%) to $17.60 on volume of 3.68m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) fell by a mere 0.30 points (-0.01%), finishing at 2565.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), +$0.160 (8%) to $2.160 on volume of 961,000 shares;
  • SP Telemedia (SOT), +$0.080 (6.96%) to $1.230 on volume of 165,000 shares; and
  • Oceana Gold (OGD), +$0.035 (5.79%) to $0.640 on volume of 758,000 shares; and
  • Perilya (PEM), +$0.050 (5.56%) to $0.950 on volume of 574,000 shares; and
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.005 (4%) to $0.130 on volume of 794,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Mcpherson's (MCP), -$0.320 (16%) to $1.680 on volume of 590,000 shares;
  • Iinet (IIN), -$0.190 (9.64%) to $1.780 on volume of 1.57m shares; and
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (8.33%) to $0.011 on volume of 2.33m shares; and
  • Schaffer Corporation (SFC), -$0.290 (5.86%) to $4.660 on volume of 4,000 shares; and
  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.045 (5.84%) to $0.725 on volume of 333,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4616.715.90.35%439.32m
XTLS&P/ASX 202511.812.80.51%0
XFLS&P/ASX 50458118.50.41%183.06m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003801.1150.4%280.85m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004672.216.80.36%358.55m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004663.516.70.36%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504718.415.80.34%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2565.6-0.3-0.01%124.42m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume70.48m169.35m186.76m219.4641.03402.16
Declining Volume20.72m74.51m115.47m139.8459.28293.17

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XTJ Telecommunications which gained 1.21% to 1434.70 points. The sector - with only two stocks in it - was dragged up solely by a bounce i Telstra: the two components performed as follows - 

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.060 (1.57%) to $3.880 on volume of 30.11m shares; and
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.020 (0.37%) to $5.450 on volume of 2.88m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XMJ Materials which gained 1.00% to 8884.80 points. The sector leaders were -

  • CSR (CSR), +$0.150 (4.67%) to $3.360 on volume of 3.95m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.690 (2.65%) to $65.500 on volume of 3.7m shares;
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.170 (2.38%) to $7.320 on volume of 737,000 shares;
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.090 (1.95%) to $4.700 on volume of 9,000 shares; and
  • Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.040 (1.9%) to $2.150 on volume of 11.28m shares.

The bronze today went toXUJ Utilities which gained 0.47% to 5651.00 points. The sector was led by

  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.040 (1.04%) to $3.900 on volume of 120,000 shares;
  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.020 (0.79%) to $2.550 on volume of 455,000 shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.060 (0.54%) to $11.220 on volume of 891,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.080 (0.47%) to $17.000 on volume of 1.35m shares; and
  • Envestra (ENV), +$0.005 (0.44%) to $1.130 on volume of 409,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XPJ Property Trusts which lost 0.55% to 1917.70 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • CFS Gandel Retail Trust (GAN), -$0.040 (1.96%) to $2.000 on volume of 1.36m shares;
  • Investa Property Group (IPG), -$0.040 (1.91%) to $2.050 on volume of 4.19m shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.040 (1.75%) to $2.240 on volume of 1.06m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XHJ Healthcare which lost 0.31% to 6234.70 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.045 (5.84%) to $0.725 on volume of 333,000 shares;
  • Novogen (NRT), -$0.080 (1.55%) to $5.090 on volume of 54,000 shares;
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), -$0.050 (0.93%) to $5.350 on volume of 1.04m shares;
  • Invocare (IVC), -$0.020 (0.5%) to $4.000 on volume of 88,000 shares; and
  • CSL (CSL), -$0.170 (0.41%) to $41.010 on volume of 601,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5692.122.50.4%51.31m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2215.35.10.23%19.06m
XSJConsumer Staples5843-1.5-0.03%27.18m
XIJInformation Technology429.2-0.7-0.16%1.97m
XPJProperty Trusts1917.7-10.6-0.55%52.47m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation3.880.061.57%30.11m
AZAAnzon Australia1.15-0.04-3.36%25.52m
GFFGoodman Fielder2.03-0.01-0.49%25.06m
BPCBurns, Philp & Company1.06-0.04-3.64%11.65m
LHGLihir Gold2.150.041.9%11.28m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
IASInternational All Sports0.420.0512%484685
DOMDominion Mining0.970.088.99%1.81m
KZLKagara Zinc2.160.168%961441
SOTSP Telemedia1.230.086.96%164923
OGDOceana Gold0.640.045.79%757546
All Ords Percentage Decliners
CIYCity Pacific3.29-0.63-16.07%499375
GDMGoldstream Mining0.33-0.04-10.96%437300

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503319.3252.290.07%23.79m
JapanNikkei 22515569.28177.81.16%0
SingaporeStraits Times2329.783.230.14%0
Hong KongHang Seng15159.33-23.56-0.16%95.96m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp893.42-2.44-0.27%0