Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

OzRant: Not As Late As I Expected...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Now that the 'spikeleteer' has finally worked out that SPISpy folks are not lily-livered nuffies whose stops can be hunted, the chicanery we've had to endure disappeared. The litttle bump upward at 1 p.m. was not unexpected, which is why today's SPISpy said to wait until after 1 p.m., rather than declaring at ime window which closedat 1 p.m.; I also included a 'desired entry above 4640' criterion (another tick.. the 1 p.m. price was 4643 and it was 4647 at 1:02 p.m. - so nobody got set below 4643), with targets (5,9,open).

Just before the close of the day-session SPI I sent out a second update, declaring victory (SPI was at 4618), thus making the eventual score (5,9,25).

Look at the chart and see just how nice it was... the red balloon is the entry time and price, and the light blue arrow points to the 'exit all remaining units' update. It would have been nice to snaffle some of the 40-point bounce after 11:00, but I was tidying up my office, moving computers around (there was in fact a nice little CCI buying divergence to give a valid entry for the SPI at the low bar... too bad we missed it). 

SPI intraday

(Note to those with dial-up - sorry for the 'fat' picture; for some reason the image file is 134Kb - usually they're only 30-odd, maximum. No idea what happened).

The market is going to struggle to hold any upside momentum - there is actually quite a lot of supply coming to market in the form of placements and secondary offerings. In addition to this impending supply overhang, the 'unnatural demand' of stock buyback cash is slowing, and short interest is also narrowing in some majors. Comprehensive details of that sort of thing can be found where all good equities research is performed...can YOU find it all in one place?

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 8.10 points (-0.18%), finishing at 4568.70 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4587.10 jsut after 1 p.m., after dipping to an 11:30 a.m. low at 4556.1 (which coincided with a test from above of 4600 on both the XJO and the SPI).

Total volume traded on the ASX was just under 990 million units, 7.0% below its 10-day average. Of the 487 stocks in the index, 164 fell while 117 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.5:1, with 243.29million shares traded in losers while 159.34million shares traded in the day's gainers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 8.60 points (-0.19%), finishing at 4616.00 points. it shot up like a skyrocket starting at about 11 a.m., but then softened markedly right after the time the SPISpy declared was a good candidate for an intraday top ... i.e., 1 p.m. Sydney time.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 4.60 points (-0.19%), finishing at 2475.80 points. Within the index members, there were 10 that rose, and 9 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 27.31 while volume in the losers totalled 52.47m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.480 (1.34%) to $36.380 on volume of 2.58m shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$0.220 (0.53%) to $41.690 on volume of 2.47m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.020 (0.36%) to $5.540 on volume of 4.84m shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.100 (0.31%) to $32.100 on volume of 2.25m shares; and
  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.020 (0.3%) to $6.640 on volume of 3.02m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.200 (0.91%) to $21.830 on volume of 14.74m shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.20 (0.9%) to $21.90 on volume of 3.94m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.05 (0.66%) to $7.54 on volume of 4.59m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.34 (0.54%) to $62.99 on volume of 1.83m shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.10 (0.53%) to $18.85 on volume of 3.52m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 4.80 points (-0.19%), finishing at 2583.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.035 (7.87%) to $0.480 on volume of 168,000 shares;
  • Peptech (PTD), +$0.085 (6.67%) to $1.360 on volume of 1.24m shares; and
  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), +$0.075 (3.9%) to $2.000 on volume of 8.4m shares; and
  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), +$0.010 (3.45%) to $0.300 on volume of 90,000 shares; and
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.060 (3.26%) to $1.900 on volume of 13.37m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.010 (6.25%) to $0.150 on volume of 3.13m shares;
  • Perseverance Corporation (PSV), -$0.020 (6.06%) to $0.310 on volume of 1.84m shares; and
  • Iinet (IIN), -$0.100 (5.49%) to $1.720 on volume of 1.06m shares; and
  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.005 (4.76%) to $0.100 on volume of 55,000 shares; and
  • Village Roadshow (VRLPA), -$0.100 (4.33%) to $2.210 on volume of 2,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4568.7-8.1-0.18%475.26m
XTLS&P/ASX 202475.8-4.6-0.19%0
XFLS&P/ASX 504517.6-8.7-0.19%178.94m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003749.2-6.9-0.18%299.57m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004616-8.6-0.19%355.5m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004608.6-8.5-0.18%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504659.7-6.6-0.14%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2583.4-4.8-0.19%152.52m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume27.31m84.75m122.29m159.34m55.87m414.88m
Declining Volume52.47m165.25m196.24m243.29m81.12m429.4m

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XEJ Energy which gained 0.39% to 10667.20 points thanks to the continued rebound in Crude Oil prices. The sector was helped by

  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.060 (3.26%) to $1.900 on volume of 13.37m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.050 (1.82%) to $2.800 on volume of 599,000 shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.030 (1.42%) to $2.150 on volume of 2.59m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.480 (1.34%) to $36.380 on volume of 2.58m shares; and
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.180 (0.87%) to $20.870 on volume of 1.02m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XHJ Healthcare which gained 0.16% to 6234.70 points; CSL's offshore partner declared it was going to seek FDA approval - such is the speculative fervour in this capital-destroying industry that the mere seeking of approval is worth a couple of percent to CSL... madness, brainless, clueless nuffnuffs who invest in 'biotech' because they think that people will think they're smart (Smart like a Doctor, I tell you!) becasue they are a 'biotech' investor. the industry is a crap-=shoot - ask anyone who was a hodler of BTA when the FDA refused to credit Relenza, giving Rumsfeld and the rest of the Gilead crowd a big head-start.

Anyhow... today's sector leaders were -

  • Peptech (PTD), +$0.085 (6.67%) to $1.360 on volume of 1.24m shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$0.670 (1.67%) to $40.850 on volume of 720,000 shares;
  • Invocare (IVC), +$0.040 (1.01%) to $4.000 on volume of 307,000 shares; and 
  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.040 (0.37%) to $10.820 on volume of 310,000 shares.

The bronze today went toXSJ Consumer Staples which gained 0.12% to 5871.60 points. The sector was led by

  • AWB (AWB), +$0.190 (3.39%) to $5.790 on volume of 1.28m shares;
  • Ridley Corporation (RIC), +$0.005 (0.37%) to $1.370 on volume of 137,000 shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.020 (0%) to $10.020 on volume of 1.92m shares; and
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.020 (0%) to $5.540 on volume of 4.84m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XUJ Utilities which lost 0.81% to 5481.20 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.110 (2.76%) to $3.870 on volume of 138,000 shares;
  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.040 (1.54%) to $2.550 on volume of 411,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.230 (1.39%) to $16.330 on volume of 740,000 shares;
  • Envestra (ENV), -$0.010 (0.89%) to $1.115 on volume of 655,000 shares; and
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.020 (0.76%) to $2.620 on volume of 79,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.69% to 1421.70 points. The sector was pulled down by both of ints components, although for onece the main source of energy was Telecom New Zealand.

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.080 (1.45%) to $5.430 on volume of 868,000 shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.020 (0.52%) to $3.840 on volume of 16.64m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XSJConsumer Staples5871.67.30.12%18.64m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2222.8-0.10%23.46m
XPJProperty Trusts1857.3-2.6-0.14%78.09m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5620.9-9.2-0.16%45.33m
XIJInformation Technology444.3-1.7-0.38%7.29m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
LHGLihir Gold2.08-0.04-1.89%29.72m
DYLDeep Yellow0.1100%23.28m
RRLRegis Resources0.120.014.55%20.42m
GSAGalileo Shopping America Trust1.17-0.01-0.43%18.76m
TOXTox Free Solutions0.14-0.01-3.57%17.5m
TLSTelstra Corporation3.84-0.02-0.52%16.64m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
GGNGallery Gold0.430.0614.86%13.03m
BBBB Digital0.320.0310.53%158841
NALNorwood Abbey0.480.047.87%167800
All Ords Percentage Decliners
FANFantastic Holdings3.2-0.4-11.11%45287
LYCLynas Corporation0.15-0.01-6.25%3.13m
PSVPerseverance Corporation0.31-0.02-6.06%1.84m
BTABiota Holdings1.56-0.1-5.74%2.39m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503225.152-41.79-1.28%25.71m
JapanNikkei 22515458.7-92.61-0.6%0
SingaporeStraits Times2316.81-15.8-0.68%0
Hong KongHang Seng15135.16-23.66-0.16%149.31m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp886.420.940.11%0