Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, December 05, 2005

OzRant: A Strange Spike at the Close...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Another day, another annoying, oh-too-convenient spikelet (exactly 10 SPI points, no less) in the opposite direction to today's SPISpy outline... and yet again it occurred almost exactly 3 minutes after the entry window closed. Everyone knows that there are no stops, so it's not clear to me what the spikelets are meant to achieve.

Today's SPISpy advocated a long from 11:30 a.m., with a target of (6,9,open); the target for lots 1 and 2 were achieved, but thanks to the 'spikeleteers' it took a lot longer than is preferable. If I find out who the leak is, they will wish they were Christian Aid workers in Baghdad.

The Update advocated setting breakeven stops on any remaining units, and any units > 2 were closed with zero gain just minutes later. So the RantRecord gets (6,9,0) for today - although those who took Option 2 in the update (which was not my preferred option) are still riding one last unit, with SPI having bounced and broken above its day-session high).

Still, the RantRecord only lays claim to the preferred option... so it's (6,9,0) for the day. It's not often that the one-lotters do a lot better (in percentage terms) than the 4-or-more traders, but today was one such day.

In non-SPISpy news, I thought I should let you know that tomorrow's OzRant might be a little late; I'm changing the PHP script that generates the tables so that it automatically updates GICS and ASX-X (i.e., ASX-20, ASX-50, ASX-100) index members every day, rather than doing it manually every week. Doubtless something will screw up when it runs tomorrow (although it ran perfectly today... but I didn't use its output), so that will be why OzRant will be late. It's all part of integrating more of the old RantPRO content into the freebie area - as RantPRO content is revised, improved and extended, FreeRant content gets the hand-me-downs.

The Lovely is enjoying her time in France immensely, for those who are interested. She's at a language school in Toulouse at the moment, being fed to the gills on roast duck and potatoes roasted in duck-fat. The wee slip of a girl only weighs 50kg, but mark you - when it's roast duck and spuddies, she can scoff her bodyweight.

And of course since I'm now a simulated-bachelor, I've done what all real men do when abandoned by their feminine side... I've reverted to a fairly gruesome state of nature: bathing is optional, as are underpants. The kitchen looks like a bomb hit it, but the really nasty smells emanate from my room. 

That's the way it should be - a bachelors life (or even a simulated-bachelor's life) should be all about farting, scratching yourself, and eating sausages and bread for any meal that you feel like. And nobody whinged when I deployed the hair-clippers as soon as I got home from the airport... when it starts to get warm, happiness is a Jarhead haircut. (I know I said I was trying to get to de Villepin-esque locks, but the risk of long hair when you're a bachelor is that things might start growing in it... but a Jarhead shampoo takes less than thirty seconds).

I haven't gone 'all the way' on the bacholer-behaviour front: a mate of mine (Bogey) used to wee in the sink if he couldn't be bothered going all the way down the corridor to the loo... that's a bit too much for me - but then again I've always been a bit 'New Age'.

Where was I? Oh yes... markets...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 3.00 points (0.07%), finishing at 4576.80 points after a completely inexplicable 7-point snap upwards in the finaly matchour period between 4 p.m. and 4:15 p.m. Sydney time. The index hit an intraday high of 4582.30 about 10 minutes after the open, and its low was 4563.1 at about 11:50 a.m. - the outcome of the now-predictable 'spikelet' after the SPISpy entry window. (Note: do not try and 'second guess' the window - the spikelet will not be helping the idiot who's doing it, and so it is likely to stop happening).

Total volume traded on the ASX was just over 810 million units, a whopping 32.4% below its 10-day average. Of the 487 stocks in the All Ords index, 143 fell while 130 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.0:1, with 154.64million shares traded in losers while 151.35million shares traded in the day's gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 1.10 points (0.02%), finishing at 4624.60 points - again, a strange 8-point spike upwards during the closing matchout is all that enabled the ASX200 to finish in the green for the day.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 0.20 points (-0.01%), finishing at 2480.40 points. Within the index members, there were 7 that rose, and 13 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 23.25m shares while volume in the losers totalled 45.27m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.390 (2.24%) to $63.310 on volume of 2.02m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.320 (0.9%) to $35.920 on volume of 1.66m shares (almost time to start looking for put options again);
  • Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$0.500 (0.74%) to $68.000 on volume of 412,000 shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.060 (0.6%) to $9.990 on volume of 2.78m shares; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.080 (0.47%) to $16.980 on volume of 2.89m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.080 (2.03%) to $3.860 on volume of 16.71m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.23 (1.35%) to $16.82 on volume of 1.59m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.04 (0.72%) to $5.51 on volume of 5.68m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.05 (0.66%) to $7.58 on volume of 3.62m shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.15 (0.63%) to $23.66 on volume of 2.53m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) fell by 1.90 points (-0.07%), finishing at 2588.20 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.002 (18.18%) to $0.013 on volume of 5.89m shares;
  • Silex Systems (SLX), +$0.220 (10%) to $2.420 on volume of 1.48m shares; and
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.160 (9.36%) to $1.870 on volume of 684,000 shares; and
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.010 (8%) to $0.135 on volume of 5.6m shares; and
  • Austereo Group (AEO), +$0.095 (6.13%) to $1.645 on volume of 120,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Colorado Group (CDO), -$0.560 (11.57%) to $4.280 on volume of 1.07m shares;
  • Croesus Mining (CRS), -$0.025 (8.62%) to $0.265 on volume of 3.55m shares; and
  • Macquarie Leisure Trust Group (MLE), -$0.170 (6.72%) to $2.360 on volume of 410,000 shares; and
  • Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), -$0.250 (6.14%) to $3.820 on volume of 334,000 shares; and
  • Metabolic Pharmaceuticals (MBP), -$0.030 (6%) to $0.470 on volume of 308,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4576.830.07%385.12m
XTLS&P/ASX 202480.4-0.2-0.01%0
XFLS&P/ASX 504526.31.90.04%143.69m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003756.11.30.03%225.42m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004624.61.10.02%275.12m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004617.11.20.03%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504666.30.10%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2588.2-1.9-0.07%117.65m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume23.25m87.73m118.56m151.3556.21350.14
Declining Volume45.27m98.43m132.15m154.6450.26352.8

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XUJ Utilities which gained 0.91% to 5525.70 points. The sector was helped by

  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.040 (1.56%) to $2.610 on volume of 289,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.180 (1.1%) to $16.520 on volume of 1.34m shares;
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.020 (0.76%) to $2.640 on volume of 75,000 shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.010 (0.26%) to $3.910 on volume of 252,000 shares; and
  • Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.000 (0%) to $3.880 on volume of 149,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 0.89% to 10625.80 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.050 (2.4%) to $2.130 on volume of 1.55m shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.080 (2.26%) to $3.620 on volume of 4.68m shares;
  • Santos (STO), +$0.230 (1.97%) to $11.930 on volume of 1.36m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.050 (1.85%) to $2.750 on volume of 1.03m shares; and
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.025 (1.41%) to $1.795 on volume of 1.14m shares.

The bronze today went to XIJ Information Technology which gained 0.86% to 446.00 points. The sector was led by

  • ERG (ERG), +$0.010 (8%) to $0.135 on volume of 5.6m shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.080 (1.17%) to $6.910 on volume of 731,000 shares;
  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.020 (0.46%) to $4.400 on volume of 75,000 shares;
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.535 on volume of 162,000 shares; and
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.010 (0.3%) to $3.300 on volume of 123,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 1.69% to 1431.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by Tesltra again - it appears that the nuffnuffs are genuinely fed up with TLS, which is a terrific sign for T3 (in other worsd, nuffnuffs will avoid T3 like the plague, and then the insots willtake their foot offi ts neck and permit it to double in 12 months). 

The thing is, TLS has a sensible valuation above $7 based on a sensible free-cash-flow-to-equity calculation (and you know how conservative I am when valuing stocks) - although there is a good reason to have an 'idiot discount' to that valuation until Manuel Trujillo takes his golden parachute and heads back to 'Barthelona', or returns to what he is more suited to - being a waiter at Fawlty Towers. 

Even so, the FAH discount shouldn't be more than about 50c a share (hover over FAH to see what it means...)

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.080 (2.03%) to $3.860 on volume of 16.71m shares; and
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.010 (0.18%) to $5.510 on volume of 847,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XDJ Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.53% to 2222.90 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Colorado Group (CDO), -$0.560 (11.57%) to $4.280 on volume of 1.07m shares;
  • Pacific Brands (PBG), -$0.070 (2.43%) to $2.810 on volume of 1.72m shares;
  • Ten Network Holdings (TEN), -$0.060 (1.81%) to $3.260 on volume of 1.61m shares;
  • APN News & Media (APN), -$0.060 (1.27%) to $4.660 on volume of 1.28m shares; and
  • Tabcorp Holdings (TAH), -$0.170 (1.09%) to $15.400 on volume of 2.31m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology4463.80.86%7.04m
XPJProperty Trusts1859.91.90.1%36.04m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5630.1-9.2-0.16%36.86m
XSJConsumer Staples5864.3-24.1-0.41%20.51m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2222.9-11.8-0.53%20.66m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
RRLRegis Resources0.12-0.01-4.17%23.57m
LHGLihir Gold2.130.010.47%19.95m
TLSTelstra Corporation3.86-0.08-2.03%16.71m
TOXTox Free Solutions0.150.013.57%12.71m
BHPBHP Billiton22.030.080.36%12.35m
HDRHardman Resources1.850.021.09%9.03m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
SLXSilex Systems2.420.2210%1.48m
CBHCBH Resources0.220.0210%3.95m
PSAPetsec Energy1.870.169.36%683723
All Ords Percentage Decliners
CDOColorado Group4.28-0.56-11.57%1.07m
FLTFlight Centre9.2-1.09-10.59%262244
CRSCroesus Mining0.27-0.03-8.62%3.55m
MLEMacquarie Leisure Trust Group2.36-0.17-6.72%410270
KCNKingsgate Consolidated3.82-0.25-6.14%333830

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503266.939-30.3-0.92%13.96m
JapanNikkei 22515553.76132.160.86%0
SingaporeStraits Times2324.73-7.79-0.33%0
Hong KongHang Seng15182.08-18.3-0.12%104.86m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp885.950.810.09%0