Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, December 15, 2005

OzRant: Toot Toot F**kin' Toot, Eh?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

This is a bit late - I had originally tried to write it in the character of Mark "Chopper" Reid, as played on the "Ronnie Johns Half Hour", but it didn't really work in text, so all that remains in character is the title. Maybe when I start audioblogging (after Christmas/New Year) I will do bits in character (Prof Frink, Zoidberg and of course yer ol' Uncle Chop-Chop, eh?) from time to time

And I can't even spell!

Another day, another victory for the SPISpyers. Today's setup was one straight out of the top drawer - even nailing the false spike that - if utilised sensibly - should have given traders the opportunity to get short 5 points better off than indicated.

But enough preamble - let's look at the day's SPISpy-mail in its entirety (it was sent at 1:45 p.m.)...

Bonjour, tout le monde.

The SPI - having tried to drag to cash market up on its opening burst (and having failed) should now consolidate between 4600 and 4625 for a day or so before failing to hold 4600.

Shorting 4620 during this range-trading should be fun. For all entries, targets are (4,7,10) - that is, never try and ride more than half of the expected range for even third lots.

Those trading 2 or more: re-enter 1 lot on any bounce after the second target. Once the second target has been hit, two-lotters should be flat; any bounce of more than 5 points should then result in 2-lotters shorting 1 unit.

The failure will come eventually (probably on the fourth test of 4600).

Bear in mind now that the spikeleteer is fully aware of our preferred entry points; as such do not be surprised if there are several 'tease' breaks of 4625 - in order to try andf fool some of you into reversing so that you can be clipped on both sides. Don't fall for it; I will let you know when the thing has genuinely broken.



Goodness me - how urbane with the Froggish greeting and all. And I couldn't resist a 'toot toot' when, after the cash close but before the SPI day session close, the SPI dipped below the third target. Check out the chart... the red balloon is the entry, the little run marked 'Tease...' is the tease break of 4625, and by the close SPISPyers had trousered the desired quantities of coin. 

Sure, it's only $100 in profits for the day for one-lotters (and $275 for 2-lotters, and $525 for 3-lotters), but when you do it reasonably regularly it can at least help pay your bar tab. 

If you were a bright spark (I got four e-mails from such sparks after my 'Toot toot' e-mail) you could've waited until 4625 was tickled and then shorted, and still used 4617/4613/4610 as targets - which improve the results by plenty for 2- and 3-lotters. Still, the RantRecord only gets credit for (4,7,10).

Anyhow - the chart...

SPI 15-minute intraday

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 8.10 points (0.18%), finishing at 4575.40 points (4575-ish). The index hit an intraday high of 4592.10 (4600-ish) during the first 20 minutes of trade, and its low was 4561.2 which was set about an hour after the high.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.81 billion units, a massive gi-normous 61.0% above its 10-day average (but it wasn't that impressive - see below). Of the 490 stocks in the index, 145 rose while 120 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a huge margin of 2.8:1, with 892.30million shares traded in losers while 315.27million shares traded in the day's gainers. The volume number and the advance-decline volume tilt was driven by one stock - Austar (AUN).

For a second I thought there was a cockup in the data - I was showing Austar (AUN) as turning over 695 million shares; turns out that's what Yahoo! is showing, and IRESS, and Bourse. So that's that settled, then.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 10.00 points (0.22%), finishing at 4627.90 points (4625-ish).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 4.10 points (0.17%), finishing at 2477.50 points. Within the index members, there were 11 that rose, and 8 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 62.99 while volume in the losers totalled 64.51m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.490 (1.38%) to $36.090 on volume of 1.46m shares;
  • Rinker Group (RIN), +$0.220 (1.37%) to $16.320 on volume of 4.04m shares;
  • Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$0.900 (1.34%) to $67.900 on volume of 1.12m shares;
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.030 (0.79%) to $3.820 on volume of 30.85m shares; and
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), +$0.140 (0.72%) to $19.680 on volume of 1.51m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.060 (0.79%) to $7.570 on volume of 7.94m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.04 (0.72%) to $5.55 on volume of 7.85m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.25 (0.68%) to $36.58 on volume of 2.44m shares;
  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.04 (0.58%) to $6.85 on volume of 5.41m shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.08 (0.35%) to $23.05 on volume of 6.64m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) rose by 5.20 points (0.20%), finishing at 2577.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Iinet (IIN), +$0.145 (8.63%) to $1.825 on volume of 1.32m shares;
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.010 (8%) to $0.135 on volume of 9.47m shares; and
  • Sirtex Medical (SRX), +$0.130 (7.22%) to $1.930 on volume of 10,000 shares; and
  • Psivida (PSD), +$0.040 (6.45%) to $0.660 on volume of 559,000 shares; and
  • Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.055 (5.85%) to $0.995 on volume of 3.7m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Genetic Technologies (GTG), -$0.105 (20.79%) to $0.400 on volume of 3.37m shares;
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.015 (8.82%) to $0.155 on volume of 711,000 shares; and
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (8.33%) to $0.011 on volume of 737,000 shares; and
  • Australian Agricultural Company (AAC), -$0.145 (8.31%) to $1.600 on volume of 977,000 shares; and
  • Virotec International (VTI), -$0.050 (8.06%) to $0.570 on volume of 320,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4575.48.10.18%1306.63m
XTLS&P/ASX 202477.54.10.17%0
XFLS&P/ASX 5045289.60.21%262.99m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003760.28.10.22%448.15m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004627.9100.22%535.38m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004619.99.90.21%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50469111.10.24%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2577.45.20.2%152.78m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume62.99m251.29m281.3m315.2762.83542.57
Declining Volume64.51m145.76m169.18m892.351.351092.24

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XTJ Telecommunications which gained 1.10% to 1413.20 points. Both of thesector's components had a decent day - 

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.130 (2.48%) to $5.380 on volume of 4.3m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.030 (0.79%) to $3.820 on volume of 30.85m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XNJ Industrials which gained 0.59% to 5297.20 points. The sector leaders were -

  • United Group (UGL), +$0.380 (3.48%) to $11.290 on volume of 501,000 shares;
  • PMP (PMP), +$0.045 (3%) to $1.545 on volume of 2.11m shares;
  • Downer EDI (DOW), +$0.200 (2.92%) to $7.050 on volume of 1.16m shares;
  • GWA International (GWT), +$0.070 (2.41%) to $2.970 on volume of 431,000 shares; and
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), +$0.080 (2.33%) to $3.510 on volume of 14.51m shares.

The bronze today went to XHJ Healthcare which gained 0.54% to 6146.60 points. The sector was led by

  • Novogen (NRT), +$0.210 (4.22%) to $5.190 on volume of 300,000 shares;
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.140 (2.59%) to $5.550 on volume of 1.92m shares;
  • DCA Group (DVC), +$0.070 (1.84%) to $3.880 on volume of 1.59m shares;
  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.015 (1.34%) to $1.135 on volume of 539,000 shares; and
  • Invocare (IVC), +$0.020 (0.5%) to $4.020 on volume of 293,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XEJ Energy which lost 0.13% to 10690.70 points; not a bad result, all things considered. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Hardman Resources (HDR), -$0.035 (1.94%) to $1.765 on volume of 4.03m shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.020 (1.16%) to $1.700 on volume of 1.25m shares;
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), -$0.230 (1.13%) to $20.170 on volume of 718,000 shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.020 (0.72%) to $2.770 on volume of 1.17m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.250 (0.68%) to $36.580 on volume of 2.44m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XIJ Information Technology which lost a miniscule 0.09% to 433.80 points. The sector was pulled down by one stock - 

  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.020 (0.3%) to $6.640 on volume of 1.85m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XDJConsumer Discretionary2224.47.30.33%37.9m
XPJProperty Trusts1915.94.50.24%133.63m
XSJConsumer Staples5855.413.10.22%43.46m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5614.211.70.21%69.8m
XIJInformation Technology433.8-0.4-0.09%13.37m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
AUNAustar United Communications1.13-0.09-7.38%696.52m
SPNSP AUSNET1.3-0.01-0.38%41.38m
TLSTelstra Corporation3.820.030.79%30.85m
DRTDB Rreef Trust1.410.010.71%20.06m
BHPBHP Billiton21.69-0.03-0.14%17.46m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
IWIInternational Wine Investment Fund20.189.62%113419
BPTBeach Petroleum10.065.85%3.7m
All Ords Percentage Decliners
GTGGenetic Technologies0.4-0.11-20.79%3.37m
CHQChiquita Brands South Pacific0.6-0.08-11.76%395632
LYCLynas Corporation0.16-0.02-8.82%711086
ETWEvans & Tate0.22-0.02-8.33%307530

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503234.67226.720.83%24.91m
JapanNikkei 22515299.8-164.78-1.07%0
SingaporeStraits Times2330.676.290.27%0
Hong KongHang Seng15047.7971.530.48%159.86m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp898.13-0.67-0.07%0