Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Saturday, December 03, 2005

USRant: Fake Workers Don't Buy Stocks...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

There was only one piece of pre-market economic data - the Employment Situation report. The numebrs looked pretty good (if you believe anything that comes out of the US government these days...  you know, stuff like 

"We did not use white phosphorous in Fallujah"
"We do not torture (but we want to quash an amendment to a bill that says we must not)"
"Saddam Hussein has WMD and links to al-Qaeda"

And the myriad other lies that the Bush administration has been caught in - from the Abramoff affair, to the Plame affair, to Tom DeLay's corrruption, to Bill Frist's insider dealing. So why the hell would you believe the government's statisitics?

Besides, if you look at the 215,000 new non-farm payrolls, you will notice that 18,000 were generated by the CES Birth Death model - without which, the new payrolls would have been even further below expectations (expectatiosn were for 225,000 new non-farm payrolls). the CES Birth Death Model - the Phantom Workers of America- have added 813000 nonexistent workers to the government tally this year. As with hedonic adjustment of output numbers, where none pf the additional 'phantom product' results in a cent of wages or a cent of profits, these Phantom Workers don't earn a paycheck and don't shop (not even at WalMart or MacDonalds. They are Sovietised Statistics, pure and simple. 

How neat.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation a $3.5billion, weekend repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral undertaken at a 3.5 basis point premium to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).

Major US Indices

Despite the better-than-expected Payroll numbers, the Dow opened weak. An early attempt to rally back above 10900 failedd, and once that failed the US indices went into 'holding' mode in preparation for the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 35.06 points (0.32%), closing out the day at 10877.51 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10921.37 (10925-ish), and fell as low as 10861.66 during the session. 

Within the blue-chip index, 8 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being United Technology (UTX, +1.42% to $54.99) and JPMorganChase (JPM, +1.09% to $38.99), which accounted for 6 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 21 and were led by Honeywell (HON, -3.22% to $36.06) and General Motors (GM, -2.34% to $22.08), with these two stocks contributing -14 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 202.1m shares to 125.9m.

The broader S&P500 rose 0.41 points (0.03%), closing at 1265.08. Within the index, gainers numbered 237, while 237 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was pretty evenly split between winners and losers, with the eventual tally tilting in favour of the winners - there were 956.43 million units traded in the winners as compared with 933.06 million traded in the losers.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite added 6.2 points (0.27%), to close at 2273.37, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 4.82 points (0.28%), to end at 1709.1 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 49, while 47 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.7:1 in favour of the winners with 456.57 million traded in the winners compared to 271.12 million in the losers .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.13 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was only just chunky, with 1.82 billion shares traded.

Major Market Statistics
Dow Jones Industrial Average10877.51-35.06-0.32%
Nasdaq Composite2273.376.20.27%
NYSE Volume2.13bn--
Nasdaq Volume1.82bn--


My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.24%

  • General Electric (GE) -$0.25 (0.7%) to $35.50;
  • Citigroup (C) -$0.08 (0.16%) to $48.77;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.06 (0.12%) to $47.97;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.56 (0.63%) to $88.65;
  • Intel (INTC) +$0.25 (0.92%) to $27.43;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.05 (0.28%) to $17.64;
  • eBay (EBAY) +$0.23 (0.51%) to $45.19;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.34 (0.7%) to $47.99; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.65 (1.02%) to $62.90.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1727 to 1543 for a single-day A/D reading of 184; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1620 to 1408. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 166.2 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 79.8.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1126.7 to 950.4 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1150 to 648.3 million shares.

194 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 54 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 178 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 37 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics

Advancing Volume (m)950.391150
Declining Volume (m)1126.69648.29
New Highs194178
New Lows5437

Market Sentiment Statistics
CBOE Volatility Index11.01-0.23-2.05%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index13.92-0.5-3.47%
Equity Put-Call Ratio0.740.1219.35%
10-day PCR0.580.011.75%
SPX-VIX Ratio114.92.352.09%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 0.9 bps to 4.717%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly higher: five year yields fell to 4.446%, and ten-year yields fell to 4.519%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 1.0 bps wider at 14.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts fell to 65.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 93.0 bps for 20-years.

Treasury Yields
UST 13wk (yld)3.8920.0150.39%
UST 2Y (yld)4.410.020.46%
UST 5Y (yld)4.446-0.004-0.09%
UST 10Y (yld)4.519-0.002-0.04%
UST 30Y (yld)4.717-0.009-0.19%

The Banks Index advanced 0.12 points (0.11%), at 104.47; within the index,

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +$0.42 (1.09%) to $38.99;
  • National City Corp (NCC) +$0.28 (0.82%) to $34.40;
  • Northern Trust (NTRS) +$0.40 (0.75%) to $53.48;
  • MBNA Corp (KRB) +$0.19 (0.71%) to $27.00; and
  • US Bancorp (USB) +$0.17 (0.56%) to $30.48.

The Broker-dealer Index added 0.74 points (0.38%), closing at 196.12; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.32 (1.36%) to $23.86;
  • Charles Schwab (SCH) +$0.18 (1.17%) to $15.61;
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.70 (1.03%) to $68.41;
  • E*Trade (ET) +$0.17 (0.86%) to $20.02; and
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) +$0.80 (0.61%) to $131.08.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index added 3.68 points (0.73%), to 505.59

  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.83 (3.29%) to $26.02;
  • Broadcom (BRCM) +$1.18 (2.48%) to $48.77;
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.54 (1.97%) to $27.95;
  • National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.32 (1.15%) to $28.22; and
  • Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) +$0.63 (1.08%) to $58.81.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $0.80 (0.16%) to close at $503.30 per ounce. It stil lfaces that significant number at $509 and change (call it $510 to be safe) - today it got as far as $507 before backing off.

The Gold Bugs Index declined 5.61 points (2.21%), ending the day at 248.04; Gold stocks are sniffing the wind, and they smell a pullback in Gold - otherwise it's jsut becoming too easy for gold bulls, and nothing should ever be easy.

  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.19 (4.23%) to $4.30;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.46 (3.64%) to $12.17;
  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.15 (3.5%) to $4.13;
  • Golden Star (GSS) -$0.08 (3.38%) to $2.29; and
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.61 (3.08%) to $19.18.

Silver rose $0.05 (0.58%) to close at $8.54 per ounce. 

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 1.91 points (1.62%), closing at 116.23 points.

  • Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.07 (5.11%) to $1.30;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.46 (3.64%) to $12.17;
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.61 (3.08%) to $19.18; and
  • Goldcorp (GG) -$0.62 (2.94%) to $20.44.
Precious Metals and Indices
PHLX Gold and Silver Index116.23-1.91-1.62%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index248.04-5.61-2.21%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.85 per barrel, closing at $59.32 per barrel. 

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 1.65 points (0.16%), at 1006.95

  • Sunoco (SUN) +$2.13 (2.64%) to $82.82;
  • ChevronTexaco (CVX) +$0.47 (0.8%) to $59.18; and
  • Kerr Mcgee (KMG) +$0.71 (0.79%) to $90.30.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index slid 0.18 points (0.1%), to end the session at 183.56

  • Rowan Companies (RDC) -$0.59 (1.57%) to $36.98;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) -$0.42 (1.17%) to $35.62; and
  • Noble Corp (NE) -$0.69 (0.93%) to $73.37.
Energy Complex
Reuters CRB339.691.510.45%
Crude Oil Light Sweet59.320.851.45%
Heating Oil1.7720.031.92%
Natural Gas13.9310.96.94%
Unleaded Gas1.61130.053.12%
AMEX Oil Index1006.951.650.16%
Oil Service Index183.56-0.18-0.1%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
US Dollar Index91.930.110.12%
Australian Dollar0.74860.00630.85%
Swiss Franc1.31770.00050.04%
Canadian Dollar0.86090.00280.33%