Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

USRant: The First Hour Gave Hope...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $4.25billion, overnight repurchase, however none of it was in Treasury-backed collateral. The repurchase was split 50-50 between mortgage-backed and agency-backed collateral operations - seeking to provide funds to put a floor under the bond and stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Major US Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 82.29 points (0.76%), closing out the day at 10805.87 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10924.82 (10925-ish) jsut before the end of the first hour of trade, then turned downwasrd savagely, falling throughout the session and trading as low as 10803.87 (10800-ish) in the final minutes of the session. 

Within the blue-chip index, only 2 index components managed a gain for the session - namely, Caterpillar (CAT, +1.19% to $57.78) and 3M (MMM, +0.17% to $78.48), which accounted for 6 Dow points between them. 

Losers in the Dow numbered 27 and were led by General Motors (GM, -4.78% to $21.90... that bounce didn't last long, now did it?) and JPMorganChase (JPM, -1.82% to $38.25), with these two stocks contributing -14 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded in Dow stocks was tilted in favour of the losers by 322.2m shares to 5.5m.

The broader S&P500 shed 8 points (0.64%), to end the session at 1249.48. Within the index, gainers numbered 164, while 317 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 2.1:1 in favour of the losers with 1315.55 million units traded in the losers as compared with 632.26 million traded in the winners .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.11 points (0%), to close at 2232.82, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 4.28 points (0.26%), to end at 1672.56 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 39, while 56 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.1:1 in favour of the losers with 362.66 million traded in the losers compared to 319.54 million in the winners .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.36 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.93 billion shares traded.


Major Market Statistics
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Dow Jones Industrial Average10805.87-82.29-0.76%
S&P5001249.48-8-0.64%
Nasdaq Composite2232.820.110%
Nasdaq1001672.56-4.28-0.26%
NYSE Volume2.36bn--
Nasdaq Volume1.93bn--

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.77%

  • General Electric (GE) -$0.21 (0.58%) to $35.72;
  • Citigroup (C) -$0.54 (1.1%) to $48.55;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.45 (0.92%) to $48.56;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.20 (0.22%) to $88.90;
  • Intel (INTC) -$0.10 (0.37%) to $26.68;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.03 (0.17%) to $17.54;
  • eBay (EBAY) +$0.31 (0.7%) to $44.81;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -$1.38 (2.79%) to $48.05; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -$1.12 (1.76%) to $62.45.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1673 to 1630, for a single-day A/D reading of -43; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1770 to 1292. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to 162.3 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 50.8.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1504.5 to 838 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1045.5 to 803.4 million shares.

104 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 79 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 125 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 47 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics

NYSENasdaq
Advancers16301770
Decliners16731292
Advancing Volume (m)837.951045.47
Declining Volume (m)1504.52803.36
New Highs104125
New Lows7947

Market Sentiment Statistics
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
CBOE Volatility Index12.080.211.77%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index15.26-0.13-0.84%
Equity Put-Call Ratio0.72-0.01-1.37%
10-day PCR0.58-0.03-4.92%
SPX-VIX Ratio103.4-2.5-2.36%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 1.3 bps to 4.703%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower: five year yields rose to 4.425%, and ten-year yields rose to 4.5%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 7.0 bps wider at 16.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts rose to 62.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 88.5 bps for 20-years.

Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were broadly tighter with the AAA-A spread on 20-years closing by one basis point to 34 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread likeiwse 1 bp tighter at 6.0 bps.

Treasury Yields
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
UST 13wk (yld)3.857-0.03-0.77%
UST 2Y (yld)4.390.010.23%
UST 5Y (yld)4.4250.0230.52%
UST 10Y (yld)4.50.0180.4%
UST 30Y (yld)4.7030.0130.28%

The Banks Index lost 1.7 points (1.61%), to 103.62; within the index,

  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -$1.02 (2.47%) to $40.27;
  • Washington Mutual (WM) -$0.95 (2.25%) to $41.19;
  • State Street (STT) -$1.27 (2.15%) to $57.69;
  • M&T Bank Corp (MTB) -$2.36 (2.13%) to $108.22; and
  • Suntrust Banks (STI) -$1.55 (2.09%) to $72.74.

The Broker-dealer Index declined 1.74 points (0.9%), ending the day at 192.51; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Ameritrade (AMTD) -$0.45 (1.89%) to $23.33;
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) -$1.10 (1.63%) to $66.42;
  • Legg Mason (LM) -$1.73 (1.39%) to $122.65;
  • Morgan Stanley (MWD) -$0.77 (1.36%) to $56.03; and
  • Lehman Brothers (LEH) -$1.61 (1.26%) to $126.00.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index posted a rise of 5.86 points (1.23%), to end the session at 481.64

  • Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) +$0.28 (3.01%) to $9.58;
  • Teradyne (TER) +$0.40 (2.81%) to $14.63;
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.59 (2.45%) to $24.67;
  • Micron Technology (MU) +$0.34 (2.44%) to $14.26; and
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.60 (2.35%) to $26.18.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $4.60 (0.92%) to close at $494.50 per ounce. The high for the session: $500.00 precisely. Everyone is concentrating too much on $500 as a round number: the much more important number is just above $509, which is a minor top formed about 20 years ago.

The Gold Bugs Index slid 7.96 points (3.17%), to end the session at 243.44

  • Golden Star (GSS) -$0.17 (6.97%) to $2.27;
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.24 (5.27%) to $4.31;
  • Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.19 (5.09%) to $3.54;
  • Goldcorp (GG) -$0.99 (4.65%) to $20.32; and
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.53 (4.21%) to $12.07.

Silver fell by $0.02 (0.19%) to close at $8.28 per ounce. 

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 2.85 points (2.43%), at 114.61 points.

  • Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.11 (7.83%) to $1.33;
  • Goldcorp (GG) -$0.99 (4.65%) to $20.32;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.53 (4.21%) to $12.07; and
  • Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.33 (4.19%) to $7.54.
Precious Metals and Indices
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Gold494.50-4.60-0.92%
Silver8.28-0.02-0.19%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index114.61-2.85-2.43%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index243.44-7.96-3.17%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.82 per barrel, closing at $57.32 per barrel after dropping to below $56 during the ACCESS overnight session. The Energy complex as whole rose strongly following an EIA Pteroleum Status Report that showed a massive 4.2 million barrel drawdown in Crude Oil inventories, and a 3.4 millon barrel drop in Distillate inventories. Refinery capacity was the sole genuinely bright spot, continuing its rebound following the hurricane season.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) lost 0.18 points (0.02%), to 972.41

  • ConocoPhillips (COP) -$0.78 (1.27%) to $60.51;
  • TotalFinaElf S.A. (TOT) -$0.96 (0.76%) to $124.69; and
  • Repsol YPF (REP) -$0.22 (0.74%) to $29.52.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index advanced 3.3 points (1.89%), ending the day at 177.77

  • BJ Services (BJS) +$0.93 (2.6%) to $36.65;
  • Smith International (SII) +$0.94 (2.55%) to $37.79; and
  • National Oilwells/Varco (NOV) +$1.38 (2.33%) to $60.62.
Energy Complex
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Reuters CRB332.492.460.75%
Crude Oil Light Sweet57.320.821.45%
Heating Oil1.68970.021.06%
Natural Gas12.5870.857.25%
Unleaded Gas1.49710.042.85%
AMEX Oil Index972.41-0.18-0.02%
Oil Service Index177.773.31.89%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
US Dollar Index91.6-0.05-0.05%
Euro1.1790.00020.02%
Yen119.810.1650.14%
Sterling1.72940.010.58%
Australian Dollar0.73850.00010.01%
Swiss Franc1.31520.00250.19%
Canadian Dollar0.85790.00220.26%