Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, April 06, 2006

TootRant: Subscriber Stuff is Back...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I've finally sorted out everything I need to in order to be happy to churn out gobs of brilliance; today's offering shows that although I'm still a tad on the rusty side.

The absolute bulk of this game is about 'fading' the nuffnuffs (as you all know by now). As such, every decision you makehas to begin with the idea "What would a nuffnuff do right now?".

That said, there is also an extent to which the market runs just a wee bit further than you would think (especially when you're shaking out the cobwebs).

Take today's US session - which bagged its target and thus continues the fine post-November-21-2005 tradition.

The initial post went like this:

I know it's late there in Oz, but frankly the S&P deserves a bounce starting now. ES06H currently 1312, having already formed a little divergence on the prior 15-min bar. Long targets just a single point on all contracts. No reversal.
Sorry for the lack of a Condition Table, but this trade just leapt out.
And Yep... I'm back.

GT. (In French, 'GT' is pronounced "ZhayTay", and means either "I Was" ('j'etais') or "thrown" ('jetee'). But enough of that...

And bugger me if the thing didn't swoon just a little further in order for the Dow to test 11225 (and break it by a tick or two in the YM futures, just to lure the nuffnuffs short one last time).

Here's the picture that is worth a thousand or so words, which helps explain the entry... a clear CCI divergence with and oversold %R...

ES06H Intraday chartS&P500 Futures Intraday Chart - Rant Entry

As I pointed out above, the thing then swooned, ruining my bloody risk-return calcs (but still, picking the intraday bottom to within two points was not bad)... and here is how it panned out:

ES06H Intraday chartS&P500 Futures Intraday Chart - Rant Exit

The e-mail to effect the entry [typo alert... should read EXIT, not entry] looked like this:

1213.25 has traded, thus all exits can be deemed to have succeeded.
Unfortunately I pressed 'Send' about fifteen seconds too early on the entry - otherwise a better entry was possible (in fact entering long at 1312 was nigh on impossible - I don't think it got back to that level until about five minutes ago).
Still, a point is a point, and there will be plenty of those this year. If you're still long, you're a brave little duck, but today you'll probably do alright.


At the moment, those who stayed long are looking smarter than the average Horse (that's my old nickname from my mate Bogey)... SPs are cufrrently 1317, but only the first point (the target) goes into the RantRecord.