Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, June 23, 2006

HintRant: Here's One Possible Reason

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Journalists (CNBC-types) and people like Tom Petrovski (who appears to consist of nothing more than a lump of congealed hair-products) will be falling over themselves today wondering how the market rose (It will rise) when Durable Goods fell.

My bet is they will go for the tried and true "Well if the data is weaker than expected, the market may think that the Fed will pause the tightening cycle". That sounds awfully like they know what they're talking about - which is whatthey want you to think: they're like the guy in a graduate seminar who babbles about something that sounds esoteric, but when you get to know him you find out he's all phrasebook and no brains. But I do the grad seminar guy a disservice, since most journalists aren't capable of getting into any grad program except journalism... which is not even an academic discipline.

Now as a regular Rant readeryou know that the only number that matters in that report is...repeat after me...

Non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft

And guess what? Orders for Non-Defence CapEx ex aircraft rose 1%.

So if they have to have a reason from within the report, that be the reason. But it was going to rise anyhow... if only to takemoney off the dills who shorted when the report came out (the DAX dropped 35 points in 15 minutes just before the report... information leakage?)