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If you've read this stream-of-semiconsciousness for a while, you will have read the phrase "Get in on COlumbus Day. Get out in May, and Stay Away". That alludes to the historical fact that markets have yielded a negative real return for holing periods of May to October, and all of the historical return from stocks was generated by holding for the 'other' half of the year.
That's a bold statement ('bold'...get it?). Still, it's also true.
La la la la woe woe woe,
Yeah, yeah, baby...
Ohhh, woe woe
La la la la
Sorry about that - I lost my train of thought, and reverted to 'songwriter' mode. Whenever a pop songwriter runs out of ideas, they slap in a stream of crap like that above. That's how you can tell they are not 'artists' in any real sense - the inability to write 2 minutes and 45 seconds of lyrics without repeating anything. I mean it's not like they're writing a fucking opera. Imagine if that sort of shit went on in other 'arts' (pop music is not an art - it's a machine)...imagine if Titian - who did a lot of stuff that only had one or two subjects in it - had got a bit bored while painting Ecce Homo and decided "Fuck it... I'll-a -stick-a in-a some-a stick-a figures". (You didn't know that Titian spoke English with a Soprano accent, did you?)
Come to think of it, I guess 'Pop Art' has the same problem as pop music (I love pop music, just quietly - but not because it's 'art'). The absolute shit generated by publicity-hound smacktards like Andy Warhol, for instance... but as Monty Burns said "I don't know Art, but I know what I hate."
Anyhow... back to the "Get Out In May" bit... it's only a 'blanket' statement if you're a 'buy and hold' index-following type of guy. It doesn't mean that the period has a natural 'shorting' bias, either. There are always long-side possibilities for single-stock and portfolio investment - that ought to go without saying. And when indices give oversold signals and a divergence, and when this happens on multiple timeframes, you dive in and wait for the elastic band to snap the thing back skywards. The odds of getting scorched are not zero, but they're closer to zero than most ideas in investment and trading.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, it is at highs and lows that the herd makes systematic errors - this is true on all timeframes - and when you have a concatenation of groups of error-makers (all making the same error in the same direction) that bloody lacka-band gets stretched real tight. But there's no cause for sweaty palms.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 20.50 points (0.43%), finishing at 4835.50 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4868.90 at the end of the first half-hour of trade in the cash session, and spent the rest of the day trying to burrow its way back down to the red. It never got there, but at the afternoon low (4820-ish) it was only 5 points above its previous close of 4815.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.53 billion units, 33.5% above its 10-day average. Of the 489 stocks in the index, 184 rose and 107 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.2:1, with 611.67million shares traded in gainers while 274.66million shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 18.90 points (0.39%), finishing at 4869.70 points. The SPI futures (September) got all the way up to 4890 before leading the charge downhill, closing athe day session at 4843... a pain in the buttock area (a trade from the high 4880's is still underwater), but the fact that there was so much obvious shorting indicates that there has not been agenuine squeeze - yet. That will come.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 6.20 points (0.24%), finishing at 2636.00 points. Within the index members, there were 13 that rose, and 7 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 172.25 while volume in the losers totalled 58.21m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- Alumina (AWC), +$0.130 (2.08%) to $6.390 on volume of 8.43m shares;
- Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.230 (2.02%) to $11.600 on volume of 6.36m shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.420 (1.64%) to $26.040 on volume of 38.08m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.420 (1.03%) to $41.200 on volume of 3.38m shares; and
- Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.140 (0.82%) to $17.150 on volume of 11.41m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.420 (1.64%) to $25.130 on volume of 13.92m shares;
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.30 (1.37%) to $21.60 on volume of 11.64m shares;
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$0.39 (0.92%) to $41.91 on volume of 7.55m shares;
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.09 (0.43%) to $20.65 on volume of 5.19m shares;
- Woolworths (WOW), -$0.08 (0.43%) to $18.60 on volume of 6.97m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 27.20 points (1.00%), finishing at 2749.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.050 (19.61%) to $0.305 on volume of 1.09m shares;
- Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.001 (14.29%) to $0.008 on volume of 10.7m shares; and
- Resolute Mining (RSG), +$0.200 (13.33%) to $1.700 on volume of 468,000 shares; and
- Cellestis (CST), +$0.400 (12.38%) to $3.630 on volume of 64,000 shares; and
- Highlands Pacific (HIG), +$0.050 (10.53%) to $0.525 on volume of 1.08m shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Austral Coal (AUO), -$0.105 (9.81%) to $0.965 on volume of 15,000 shares;
- Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.010 (8.33%) to $0.110 on volume of 178,000 shares; and
- Primelife Corporation (PLF), -$0.070 (6.86%) to $0.950 on volume of 75,000 shares; and
- Novogen (NRT), -$0.160 (6.15%) to $2.440 on volume of 457,000 shares; and
- Ventracor (VCR), -$0.040 (5.76%) to $0.655 on volume of 1.43m shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4835.5 | 20.5 | 0.43% | 918.82m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2636 | 6.2 | 0.24% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4764.2 | 13.4 | 0.28% | 415.36m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3953 | 14.1 | 0.36% | 675.63m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4869.7 | 18.9 | 0.39% | 810.46m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4863 | 20.5 | 0.42% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4904.8 | 38.7 | 0.8% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2749.9 | 27.2 | 1% | 221.94m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 13 | 53 | 96 | 184 | 97 | 669 |
| Declines | 7 | 36 | 75 | 107 | 55 | 358 |
| Advancing Volume | 172.25m | 458.24m | 534.84m | 611.67 | 145.93 | 990.99 |
| Declining Volume | 58.21m | 203.44m | 251.48m | 274.66 | 61.46 | 369.32 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 1.49% to 9856.00 points. The sector was helped by
- Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.360 (8.91%) to $4.400 on volume of 713,000 shares;
- Oxiana (OXR), +$0.200 (7.84%) to $2.750 on volume of 25.49m shares;
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$1.000 (5.49%) to $19.200 on volume of 4.75m shares;
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.110 (5.29%) to $2.190 on volume of 1.22m shares; and
- Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.110 (4.31%) to $2.660 on volume of 33.17m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 1.19% to 11542.50 points. The sector leaders were -
- Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.075 (5.12%) to $1.540 on volume of 7.77m shares;
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.110 (3.87%) to $2.950 on volume of 3.57m shares;
- Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.500 (2.63%) to $19.480 on volume of 1.39m shares;
- Santos (STO), +$0.270 (2.49%) to $11.130 on volume of 4.17m shares; and
- Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.040 (2.23%) to $1.830 on volume of 2.02m shares.
The bronze today went toXNJ Industrials which gained 0.68% to 5354.90 points. The sector was led by
- Qantas Airways (QAN), +$0.080 (2.52%) to $3.260 on volume of 20.55m shares;
- Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), +$0.080 (2.3%) to $3.560 on volume of 24.91m shares;
- Leighton Holdings (LEI), +$0.360 (2.1%) to $17.510 on volume of 1.09m shares;
- Macquarie Airports (MAP), +$0.060 (1.88%) to $3.260 on volume of 10.95m shares; and
- Transfield Services (TSE), +$0.130 (1.59%) to $8.290 on volume of 905,000 shares.
The worst-performed sector today was XUJ Utilities which lost 0.69% to 5736.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.120 (4.07%) to $2.830 on volume of 1.66m shares;
- Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.230 (1.3%) to $17.520 on volume of 2.22m shares;
- Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.020 (0.9%) to $2.200 on volume of 1.04m shares;
- Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.010 (0.26%) to $3.850 on volume of 825,000 shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which lost 0.36% to 5850.50 points. The sector was pulled down by across-the-board weakness in the big banks, but in p[ercentage terms it was other financial services that sucked the most:
- Tower (TWR), -$0.080 (2.85%) to $2.730 on volume of 1.46m shares;
- Perpetual Trustees Australia (PPT), -$1.600 (2.34%) to $66.900 on volume of 355,000 shares;
- SFE Corporation (SFE), -$0.270 (1.71%) to $15.480 on volume of 746,000 shares;
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.420 (1.64%) to $25.130 on volume of 13.92m shares; and
- IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.120 (1.54%) to $7.680 on volume of 302,000 shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 9856 | 144.9 | 1.49% | 193.94m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11542.5 | 135.4 | 1.19% | 39.75m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5354.9 | 36.3 | 0.68% | 91.72m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 469.8 | 2.8 | 0.6% | 11.37m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1983.3 | 11.1 | 0.56% | 166.67m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6241.1 | 28.2 | 0.45% | 20.46m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6123.3 | 12.6 | 0.21% | 51.48m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1296.3 | 1.1 | 0.08% | 71.63m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2275.3 | 0.7 | 0.03% | 51.83m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5702.6 | -8.9 | 0% | 265.37m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5850.5 | -21 | -0.36% | 110.1m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5736.5 | -39.6 | -0.69% | 9.46m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 3.72 | 0.01 | 0.27% | 59.74m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 26.04 | 0.42 | 1.64% | 38.08m |
| LHG | Lihir Gold | 2.66 | 0.11 | 4.31% | 33.17m |
| OXR | Oxiana | 2.75 | 0.2 | 7.84% | 25.49m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.56 | 0.08 | 2.3% | 24.91m |
| QAN | Qantas Airways | 3.26 | 0.08 | 2.52% | 20.55m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYC | Lynas Corporation | 0.31 | 0.05 | 19.61% | 1.09m |
| MUL | Multiemedia | 0.008 | 0.001 | 14.29% | 10.7m |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | 1.7 | 0.2 | 13.33% | 468257 |
| CST | Cellestis | 3.63 | 0.4 | 12.38% | 64321 |
| EOS | Electro Optic Systems Holdings | 1.41 | 0.14 | 10.63% | 94400 |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLF | Primelife Corporation | 0.95 | -0.07 | -6.86% | 74916 |
| NRT | Novogen | 2.44 | -0.16 | -6.15% | 457309 |
| VCR | Ventracor | 0.66 | -0.04 | -5.76% | 1.43m |
| CMQ | Chemeq | 0.33 | -0.02 | -5.71% | 355888 |
| DUE | Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts | 2.83 | -0.12 | -4.07% | 1.66m |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3529.198 | -34.06 | -0.96% | 21.55m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14470.76 | 161.2 | 1.13% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1219.4 | -2.33 | -0.19% | 192749 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2301.55 | 20.88 | 0.92% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 15365.44 | 117.52 | 0.77% | 263.52m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 892.38 | -0.85 | -0.1% | 0 |
