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It's the old "Good news, Bad news' thing again. The good news is that it's now abundantly clear that the computer issues I've been having are definitely he result of a dying RAM stick. The bad news is that the new stick won't arrive for at last another day or so. 5 BSoDs were experienced in the writing of this Rant. How I suffer for my Art...
I've got to go up to Paris later today, so there might not be a USRant tonight (Paris time) - althoguh if I can get to an internet cafe I will stick up the tables and what-not.
Unlike the US Markets, the domestic bourse had no trouble getting traction for its morning moonshot. Right from the off, the thing blasted off as if everyone had won Lotto and decided to punt their winnings on the stock market.
And then, something interesting happened, and frankly when you see the pictures you will think it was so obvious that I must've been a big girl's blouse to refuse to have a crack at it.
There was a nice, clean divergence right at the end of the first hour; everything was perfect - CCI divergence, %R overbought... and yet I didn't pull the trigger. No SPISpy call, nuthin'.
Here's the first picture - a snapshot from just after 11 a.m. Sydney time (in other words, the 'right hand margin' at the time:
C'est tellement clair - a divergence just like in them books what eggheads likes to read.
And it panned out as I expected - that is, not really worth it.
The first divergence after a cross of the dark blue MA is usually 'soft' - that is, by the time you've seen it and notified the troops, you've only got 5-10 SPI points' worth of move left.
That's why there was no short sent out. Here's the after-party:
So the thing did what it was s'pose-da - and it did it with the lack of alacrity that it was s'pose-da, as well. When you get that first shorting opportunity during a bounce, it is invariably the time when dumbasses are still prepared to short near a low (although this was almost 80 points above yesterday's low).
The most likely outcome is a 'Zero Line Reject' (ZLR) on the CCI, and a failed trade.
ZLRs are a CCI trader's best secondary tool (after the divergence) - it's where the CCI dips back to zero (or slightly below) during an uptrend (or jumps to zero - or slightly above - during a downtrend) and then reverses back in the direction of the trend. Along with something that's referred to as a 'ghost', the divergence plus the ZLR are pretty much all anyone ever needs. If you look at the bottom panel, you can see a ZLR during the previous session (the little 'upside-down W' on the histogram) - a signal to have another crack at the short side (of course I couldn't do nuthin' about that one either - BSoD intervened as if from on high), and there is one there today in the opposite direction - but as with the divergence, it was not worth having a crack at.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 53.60 points (1.11%), finishing at 4884.40 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4889.90 pretty much bang-on 11 a.m., and its low was 4830.8 - at the open. 60 points up in an hour, and trading water (with a squishy feel) for most of the rest of the session. What an enormous pain in the sphincter.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.02 billion units, 2.8% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 188 rose while 100 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.4:1, with 341.86million shares traded in gainers while 145.40million shares traded in the day's losers ..
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 57.50 points (1.18%), finishing at 4918.90 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 41.50 points (1.58%), finishing at 2671.80 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and only 1 loser (Fosters'). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 107.02m units while volume in the losers totalled 3.04m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.660 (3.19%) to $21.350 on volume of 2.8m shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.820 (3.13%) to $26.980 on volume of 16.97m shares;
- AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.230 (2.68%) to $8.800 on volume of 4.91m shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.800 (2.45%) to $75.250 on volume of 1.88m shares; and
- National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.670 (2.01%) to $34.000 on volume of 3.97m shares.
The only loser amongst the heafvyweights was Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.040 (0.72%) to $5.550 on volume of 3.04m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 22.90 points (0.83%), finishing at 2784.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.002 (28.57%) to $0.009 on volume of 14.23m shares;
- Sally Malay Mining (SMY), +$0.130 (12.5%) to $1.170 on volume of 867,000 shares; and
- Iinet (IIN), +$0.055 (8.15%) to $0.730 on volume of 5.41m shares; and
- Western Areas (WSA), +$0.145 (8.08%) to $1.940 on volume of 141,000 shares; and
- Novogen (NRT), +$0.150 (7.01%) to $2.290 on volume of 383,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.010 (8.7%) to $0.105 on volume of 422,000 shares;
- Agenix (AGX), -$0.015 (8.57%) to $0.160 on volume of 530,000 shares; and
- Norwood Abbey (NAL), -$0.020 (8%) to $0.230 on volume of 243,000 shares; and
- Kresta Holdings (KRS), -$0.010 (5.56%) to $0.170 on volume of 218,000 shares; and
- Symex Holdings (SYM), -$0.045 (5.29%) to $0.805 on volume of 292,000 shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4884.4 | 53.6 | 1.11% | 535.46m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2671.8 | 41.5 | 1.58% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4815.7 | 62.5 | 1.31% | 237.1m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3993.3 | 48.3 | 1.22% | 366.98m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4918.9 | 57.5 | 1.18% | 442.07m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4913.8 | 57.5 | 1.18% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4938.1 | 34.6 | 0.71% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2784.4 | 22.9 | 0.83% | 135.47m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 18 | 65 | 122 | 188 | 96 | 537 |
| Declines | 1 | 19 | 44 | 100 | 55 | 493 |
| Advancing Volume | 107.02m | 238.98m | 289.57m | 341.86 | 89.73 | 505.3 |
| Declining Volume | 3.04m | 91.99m | 114.58m | 145.4 | 36.43 | 268.46 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 2.19% to 10081.00 points. The sector was helped by
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.470 (5.4%) to $9.170 on volume of 8.26m shares;
- Oxiana (OXR), +$0.140 (5.09%) to $2.890 on volume of 11.85m shares;
- Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.290 (3.9%) to $7.720 on volume of 454,000 shares;
- Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.120 (3.14%) to $3.940 on volume of 414,000 shares; and
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.820 (3.13%) to $26.980 on volume of 16.97m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 1.46% to 5932.20 points. The sector leaders were -
- Record Investments (RCD), +$0.610 (5.67%) to $11.360 on volume of 1.19m shares;
- Axa Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA), +$0.320 (5.41%) to $6.240 on volume of 3.22m shares;
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.660 (3.19%) to $21.350 on volume of 2.8m shares;
- Bendigo Bank (BEN), +$0.390 (3.12%) to $12.890 on volume of 115,000 shares; and
- AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.230 (2.68%) to $8.800 on volume of 4.91m shares.
The bronze today went toXEJ Energy which gained 1.39% to 11730.40 points. The sector was led by
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.110 (3.72%) to $3.070 on volume of 595,000 shares;
- Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.040 (2.61%) to $1.570 on volume of 4.75m shares;
- Santos (STO), +$0.290 (2.6%) to $11.440 on volume of 1.58m shares;
- Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.080 (2.13%) to $3.830 on volume of 527,000 shares; and
- Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.020 (1.38%) to $1.470 on volume of 406,000 shares.
The only sector that finished the day in the red was XNJ Industrials which lost 0.20% to 5284.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by QAN, mostly - how long ago was it that I put a (very unpopular) SELL rating on that thing - at above $3.50? Is it FOUR YEARS? Please, someone write me and tell me what an idiot I am for that call... how QAN is not a money-sink like every other airline on the planet... Four years of going fucking nowhere while the broader market has appreciated about 50%. Great stuff.
- Qantas Airways (QAN), -$0.150 (4.72%) to $3.030 on volume of 37.1m shares;
- PMP (PMP), -$0.040 (2.63%) to $1.480 on volume of 255,000 shares;
- Spotless Group (SPT), -$0.100 (2.02%) to $4.850 on volume of 401,000 shares;
- Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX), -$0.040 (1.86%) to $2.110 on volume of 1.35m shares; and
- Downer EDI (DOW), -$0.100 (1.35%) to $7.300 on volume of 1.37m shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 10081 | 216.5 | 2.19% | 95.42m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5932.2 | 85.3 | 1.46% | 40.94m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11730.4 | 160.8 | 1.39% | 15.78m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 486.5 | 6.5 | 1.35% | 3.07m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1278.4 | 12.1 | 0.96% | 50.07m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1979.5 | 12.2 | 0.62% | 90.12m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6297.8 | 35 | 0.56% | 10.71m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6178.1 | 31.2 | 0.51% | 21.45m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2270 | 2.8 | 0.12% | 26.59m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5811.9 | 1 | 0.02% | 4.23m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5762.1 | 72.5 | 0% | 126.77m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5284.5 | -10.8 | -0.2% | 75.79m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 3.69 | 0.05 | 1.37% | 39.16m |
| QAN | Qantas Airways | 3.03 | -0.15 | -4.72% | 37.1m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 26.98 | 0.82 | 3.13% | 16.97m |
| PNA | Pan Australian Resources | 0.31 | -0.03 | -7.46% | 16.1m |
| GFF | Goodman Fielder | 2 | 0.01 | 0.5% | 15.77m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.39 | 0 | 0% | 14.63m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUL | Multiemedia | 0.009 | 0.002 | 28.57% | 14.23m |
| CNT | Centamin Egypt | 0.69 | 0.11 | 18.97% | 171259 |
| SMY | Sally Malay Mining | 1.17 | 0.13 | 12.5% | 866824 |
| SRI | Sipa Resources | 0.061 | 0.006 | 10.91% | 1.65m |
| IIN | Iinet | 0.73 | 0.06 | 8.15% | 5.41m |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGX | Agenix | 0.16 | -0.02 | -8.57% | 529883 |
| NAL | Norwood Abbey | 0.23 | -0.02 | -8% | 242916 |
| PNA | Pan Australian Resources | 0.31 | -0.03 | -7.46% | 16.1m |
| ARA | Ariadne Australia | 0.41 | -0.03 | -6.82% | 170000 |
| SYM | Symex Holdings | 0.81 | -0.05 | -5.29% | 292397 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3541.382 | -5.17 | -0.15% | 43.83m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14644.26 | -4.15 | -0.03% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1227.19 | 1.36 | 0.11% | 184654 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2332.84 | 5.73 | 0.25% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 15561.55 | -47.42 | -0.3% | 276.75m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 894.75 | 4.76 | 0.53% | 0 |
