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Well now. To the untrained eye, it would appear that global equity markets are behaving like a schizophrenic on crack, but fortunately everything is still utterly predictable (except for the day before yesterday - I still insist that a large trading operation went toes-up).
As I stated before this bounce started, don't get too excited about it. This is just the standard "nuffie skinning" process that happens at all sentiment extremes. If you're a 'fade' style trader and you've ever had a trade go deep underwater (on whatever timeframe you care to think about) you will have seen a period where there was not so much as a single tick in the desired direction: the thing just seems to know you're sitting there grinding your teeth, palms a-sweat.
And that is when people do stupid things. Dumping at an obvious low (TICK -1000, TRIN > 1.3, market oversold, CCI divergent) , simply because it starts to sting. Or closing shorts at what is obviously a high (with TRIN < 0.5, market overbought, CCI divergent), simply because they're afraid they will get further massacred by a big leg up.
That's why fade trading is difficult - it requires you to charge in when there's a stampede in retreat (imagine being a German in the French Army), but then it also requires you to abandon ship when everybody's dancing. As a famous chap once said "Buy at the sound of the cannon, and sell when they're dancing in the streets". I think it was one of Hamschel Bauer's offspring.
When things look darkest (e.g., when you're long and the market continues to slide), you have to think of one word: "overlap". And when you look at the situation, you have to do so mercilessly: is this something special? Is this oversold, divergent piece of crap really going to continue to fall? Am I seriously going to have to close this bitch of a trade at a loss? Or tread water for weeks until I can get out scratch?
Just keep this in mind (applies only to losing trades): never close a short until the market is oversold and never close a long until the market is overbought. Thinking now about the recent SPI trade: if the daily had somehow bounced all the way to overbought, but the trade had still not got back into the green, it would have been time to pull the pin.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 96.70 points (2.00%), finishing at 4932.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4938.60 just before 2 p.m., just a tad over 100 points above the sessions low (4835.5) which was set at the open.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.14 billion units, 0.6% below its 10-day average. Of the 492 active stocks in the index, 242 rose while 53 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 5.0:1, with 389.70million shares traded in gainers while 77.30million shares traded in the day's losers ..
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 99.30 points (2.04%), finishing at 4969.00 points. SPISpy 3-lotters are now sitting on a 60-odd point gain, which is almost compensation for having had to hold the sucker for three underwater days.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 59.40 points (2.25%), finishing at 2695.40 points. Within the index members, there were 19 that rose, and 1 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 81.97 while volume in the losers totalled 27.37m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$1.430 (5.5%) to $27.430 on volume of 23.32m shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$3.530 (4.81%) to $76.900 on volume of 2.41m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$1.810 (4.43%) to $42.640 on volume of 2.62m shares;
- Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$2.770 (4.38%) to $66.000 on volume of 1.45m shares; and
- AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.230 (2.71%) to $8.720 on volume of 5.99m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.010 (0.27%) to $3.720 on volume of 27.37m shares;
- Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.06 (0.35%) to $17.16 on volume of 5.62m shares;
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.17 (0.67%) to $25.42 on volume of 5.56m shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.04 (0.73%) to $5.55 on volume of 4.13m shares;
- St George Bank (SGB), +$0.27 (0.96%) to $28.45 on volume of 1.24m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 58.00 points (2.11%), finishing at 2807.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- GRD (GRD), +$0.290 (13.24%) to $2.480 on volume of 2.14m shares;
- Perilya (PEM), +$0.260 (11.5%) to $2.520 on volume of 754,000 shares; and
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.900 (9.85%) to $10.040 on volume of 10.21m shares; and
- Fleetwood Corporation (FWD), +$0.590 (9.53%) to $6.780 on volume of 430,000 shares; and
- Village Life Ltd (VLL), +$0.010 (9.09%) to $0.120 on volume of 394,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (11.11%) to $0.008 on volume of 3.45m shares;
- Great Southern Plantations (GTP), -$0.340 (8.59%) to $3.620 on volume of 3.13m shares; and
- Novogen (NRT), -$0.080 (3.29%) to $2.350 on volume of 204,000 shares; and
- Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.010 (3.03%) to $0.320 on volume of 167,000 shares; and
- Cellestis (CST), -$0.100 (2.86%) to $3.400 on volume of 38,000 shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4932.2 | 96.7 | 2% | 542.86m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2695.4 | 59.4 | 2.25% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4861.8 | 97.6 | 2.05% | 196.72m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 4033.9 | 80.9 | 2.05% | 333.14m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4969 | 99.3 | 2.04% | 438.28m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4962.8 | 99.8 | 2.05% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 5004.4 | 99.6 | 2.03% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2807.9 | 58 | 2.11% | 164.54m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 19 | 75 | 143 | 242 | 122 | 817 |
| Declines | 1 | 8 | 22 | 53 | 31 | 298 |
| Advancing Volume | 81.97m | 243.5m | 325.95m | 389.7 | 99.77 | 762.89 |
| Declining Volume | 27.37m | 46.09m | 50.51m | 77.3 | 22.7 | 204.65 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 4.41% to 10290.70 points. The sector was helped by
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.900 (9.85%) to $10.040 on volume of 10.21m shares;
- Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.380 (8.52%) to $4.840 on volume of 232,000 shares;
- Kimberley Diamond Company (KIM), +$0.080 (6.67%) to $1.280 on volume of 2.65m shares;
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.140 (6.36%) to $2.340 on volume of 729,000 shares; and
- Oxiana (OXR), +$0.170 (6.18%) to $2.920 on volume of 16.26m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 3.74% to 11974.70 points. The sector leaders were -
- Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.120 (7.79%) to $1.660 on volume of 12.27m shares;
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.170 (5.76%) to $3.120 on volume of 1.5m shares;
- Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.090 (4.95%) to $1.910 on volume of 1.9m shares;
- Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.065 (4.45%) to $1.525 on volume of 1.3m shares; and
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$1.810 (4.43%) to $42.640 on volume of 2.62m shares.
The bronze today went to XIJ Information Technology which gained 2.72% to 482.60 points. The sector was led by
- Computershare (CPU), +$0.260 (3.54%) to $7.600 on volume of 1.14m shares;
- IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.190 (3.51%) to $5.600 on volume of 83,000 shares;
- Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.020 (1.18%) to $1.720 on volume of 372,000 shares;
- MYOB (MYO), +$0.010 (1.16%) to $0.875 on volume of 102,000 shares; and
- ERG (ERG), +$0.001 (1.03%) to $0.098 on volume of 1.3m shares.
The worst-performed sector today - and the only sector that showed a decline for the session - was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.19% to 1293.80 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.010 (0.27%) to $3.720 on volume of 27.37m shares; and
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.010 (0.28%) to $3.560 on volume of 2.83m shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 10290.7 | 434.7 | 4.41% | 123.31m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11974.7 | 432.2 | 3.74% | 28.39m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 482.6 | 12.8 | 2.72% | 3.46m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6385.7 | 144.6 | 2.32% | 9.68m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5935.7 | 85.2 | 1.46% | 40.87m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6206.4 | 83.1 | 1.36% | 16.5m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5810 | 73.5 | 1.28% | 5.23m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5419.4 | 64.5 | 1.2% | 55.11m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2296.8 | 21.5 | 0.94% | 31.26m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1991.6 | 8.3 | 0.42% | 94.06m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5772.5 | 69.9 | 0% | 129.32m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1293.8 | -2.5 | -0.19% | 30.19m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 3.72 | -0.01 | -0.27% | 27.37m |
| LHG | Lihir Gold | 2.81 | 0.14 | 5.24% | 23.62m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 27.43 | 1.43 | 5.5% | 23.32m |
| DXL | Dynonobel | 2.39 | -0.04 | -1.65% | 20.48m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.58 | 0.03 | 0.85% | 20m |
| OXR | Oxiana | 2.92 | 0.17 | 6.18% | 16.26m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDM | Goldstream Mining | 0.58 | 0.08 | 15% | 89350 |
| GRD | GRD | 2.48 | 0.29 | 13.24% | 2.14m |
| PEM | Perilya | 2.52 | 0.26 | 11.5% | 753837 |
| BBB | B Digital | 0.084 | 0.008 | 10.53% | 3.97m |
| ZFX | Zinifex | 10.04 | 0.9 | 9.85% | 10.21m |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTP | Great Southern Plantations | 3.62 | -0.34 | -8.59% | 3.13m |
| REH | Reece Australia | 14.6 | -0.8 | -5.19% | 17432 |
| NHC | New Hope Corporation | 1.22 | -0.07 | -5.08% | 199870 |
| EOS | Electro Optic Systems Holdings | 1.35 | -0.06 | -3.91% | 58338 |
| NRT | Novogen | 2.35 | -0.08 | -3.29% | 204045 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3558.871 | 29.67 | 0.84% | 32.63m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14879.34 | 408.58 | 2.82% | -na- |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1262.19 | 42.79 | 3.51% | -na- |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2370.19 | 67.76 | 2.94% | -na- |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 15809.92 | 374.84 | 2.43% | 287.97m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 896.49 | 10.01 | 1.13% | -na- |
