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It coulda been worse... but only if you were heavily invested in Japanese shares, which got absolutely hammered (well, a drop of just over 4% qualifies as a hammering these days). It's one of those times where the elastic that drives the 'fade' methodologies, gets a bit stretched, and people get sweaty palms. That's good - if life was a procession of cakes and couches, it would be a bit boring.
The New Year prognostication (PAIN) is about on track, however it's now almost overdue for a counter-decline rally to shake the cobwebs out of folks who always short late and low (the same types who buy late and high). Almost every global index is showing a nice CCI divergence on a daily basis, and that means trouble for the bears.
Now we all know that I am a bear, broadly speaking, but I'm not an idiot - I would never advocate shorting an oversold market. Everybody knows that 'waterfall' declines often happen from markets that are already oversold, but the principle of 'overlap' means that invariably the subsequent bounce returns the marekt to above the starting point for the divergence.
Think of it this way: let's say that you look no further than a daily chart. On the day of the high in the Nasdaq Composite (March 10, 2000), two things happened: the market broke to a new high (and snapped a short pullback that saw the Comp drop from 5000 to under 4725), and a CCI divergence registered.
A breakout trader would have been encouraged to go long: at no stage did he ever get an opportunity to get out even-stevents. A 'fade' trader would have been encouraged to go short. Tops and bottoms - interim and longer-term - are where the vast majority of bad decisions are made (by the masses); humans are a herd animal, after all. We are very close to a short-term bottom.
Yes, picking a market top is an extreme case, I know. But even interim periods of excessive bullishness or bearishness have the same broad 'embedded behaviour: markets do not go in one direction - the trend might be your friend while your relationship is young, but eventually the trend gets stale and decides to leave, taking all the grocery money with it... usually after making it seem like it's getting a new lease on life. That's when divergences tell you to watch out - when they fail to confirm the trend...
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - had its biggest one-session decline in point terms, since October 29th, 1997. It was the worst day in percentage terms since September 17th 2001 (which from memory was the first day that US marekts opened for trade in the aftermath of the 9/11 event - the one that the FBI does not accuse Osama bin Laden of). The All Ords fell by 119.60 points (-2.43%), finishing at 4807.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4926.80 and its low was 4807.2.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.14 billion units, 7.3% above its 10-day average; not really very impressive given the magnitude of the decline. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 239 fell while 48 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 14.4:1, with 477.23million shares traded in losers while 33.05million shares traded in the day's gainers. Again, a bounce is called for, and it ought to be a doozy. That said, anyone watching the ticker would have been hard preessedto take any positives from the session (but frankly that simply means that everyone is on the same side of the boat).
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 127.10 points (-2.56%), finishing at 4838.90 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 77.60 points (-2.88%), finishing at 2618.50 points. Within the index, only one component rose - Woolies. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 2.8m shares while volume in the losers totalled 106.15m units.
The list of winners in the "big guns" (more accurately, the list of 'winner')...
- Woolworths (WOW), +$0.250 (1.34%) to $18.910 on volume of 2.8m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- BHP Billiton (BHP), -$1.430 (5.35%) to $25.300 on volume of 22.02m shares;
- Rinker Group (RIN), -$0.90 (5.33%) to $16.00 on volume of 6.65m shares;
- AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.42 (4.78%) to $8.36 on volume of 6.58m shares;
- Macquarie Bank (MBL), -$2.77 (4.3%) to $61.58 on volume of 872,000 shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), -$2.82 (3.82%) to $70.95 on volume of 2.69m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) was relatively unscathed (if that's a useful expression, given that it got smacked as well), falling 2% exactly, or 55.80 points (-2.00%), finishing at 2737.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Maxitrans Industries (MXI), +$0.030 (4.76%) to $0.660 on volume of 1.17m shares;
- GWA International (GWT), +$0.130 (4.1%) to $3.300 on volume of 131,000 shares; and
- Technology One (TNE), +$0.025 (3.85%) to $0.675 on volume of 68,000 shares; and
- Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.120 (3.2%) to $3.870 on volume of 2.42m shares; and
- Kresta Holdings (KRS), +$0.005 (2.7%) to $0.190 on volume of 169,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Novogen (NRT), -$0.360 (13.58%) to $2.290 on volume of 134,000 shares;
- Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.040 (13.56%) to $0.255 on volume of 790,000 shares; and
- Perseverance Corporation (PSV), -$0.045 (12.33%) to $0.320 on volume of 3.44m shares; and
- Emperor Mines (EMP), -$0.045 (11.69%) to $0.340 on volume of 269,000 shares; and
- Portman (PMM), -$0.600 (11.11%) to $4.800 on volume of 66,000 shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4807.2 | -119.6 | -2.43% | 552.42m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2618.5 | -77.6 | -2.88% | 0 |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4734.4 | -131.6 | -2.7% | 200.07m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3927.5 | -106.1 | -2.63% | 357.07m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4838.9 | -127.1 | -2.56% | 447.43m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4832.7 | -127.2 | -2.56% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4868 | -108.9 | -2.19% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2737.9 | -55.8 | -2% | 159.07m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Well, the internals are awful, the ticker looks sick, and SPISpy subscribers were "non-advised" to try and catch a falling knife. AS I mentioned at the time, the possibility existed that it would sting, but one of the things about the principle of 'overlap' is that you pretty much always get out intact... wait for tomorrow...
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 1 | 8 | 26 | 48 | 33 | 209 |
| Declines | 19 | 78 | 142 | 239 | 125 | 908 |
| Advancing Volume | 2.8m | 21.92m | 25.93m | 33.05 | 25.76 | 107.89 |
| Declining Volume | 106.15m | 314.51m | 393.89m | 477.23 | 121.22 | 902.36 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
There was not a signle advancing sector today - as you migh expect.
The worst-performed sector today was XMJ Materials which lost 4.74% to 9591.10 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- Portman (PMM), -$0.600 (11.11%) to $4.800 on volume of 66,000 shares;
- Zinifex (ZFX), -$0.760 (7.9%) to $8.860 on volume of 9.84m shares;
- Lihir Gold (LHG), -$0.170 (6.27%) to $2.540 on volume of 24.89m shares;
- Centennial Coal Company (CEY), -$0.200 (6.1%) to $3.080 on volume of 1.39m shares; and
- Iluka Resources (ILU), -$0.370 (5.71%) to $6.110 on volume of 1.09m shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XIJ Information Technology which lost 4.30% to 469.40 points. The sector was pulled down by
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.350 (4.53%) to $7.370 on volume of 1.62m shares;
- IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.210 (3.6%) to $5.630 on volume of 87,000 shares;
- Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.035 (1.94%) to $1.765 on volume of 198,000 shares;
- Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.010 (1.61%) to $0.610 on volume of 125,000 shares; and
- Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.050 (1.52%) to $3.240 on volume of 407,000 shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XFJ | Financials | 5713.6 | -127.3 | 0% | 120.95m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6135.6 | -28.3 | -0.46% | 21.64m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1299.2 | -12.9 | -0.98% | 26.75m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5746.6 | -58.5 | -1.01% | 4.8m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1974 | -27.7 | -1.38% | 79.37m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2270.2 | -35.8 | -1.55% | 23.81m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5315.4 | -94.3 | -1.74% | 47.71m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5872.8 | -144.6 | -2.4% | 45.21m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6237.5 | -174.1 | -2.72% | 16.36m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11352.2 | -338.9 | -2.9% | 22.74m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 469.4 | -21.1 | -4.3% | 3.7m |
| XMJ | Materials | 9591.1 | -477.4 | -4.74% | 156.47m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXR | Oxiana | 2.65 | -0.05 | -1.85% | 29.09m |
| LHG | Lihir Gold | 2.54 | -0.17 | -6.27% | 24.89m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 3.72 | -0.03 | -0.8% | 23.57m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 25.3 | -1.43 | -5.35% | 22.03m |
| MIG | Macquarie Infrastructure Group | 3.47 | -0.06 | -1.7% | 16.96m |
| ZFX | Zinifex | 8.86 | -0.76 | -7.9% | 9.84m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBD | Port Bouvard | 2.75 | 0.16 | 6.18% | 419715 |
| NHC | New Hope Corporation | 1.22 | 0.07 | 5.65% | 82700 |
| MXI | Maxitrans Industries | 0.66 | 0.03 | 4.76% | 1.17m |
| GWT | GWA International | 3.3 | 0.13 | 4.1% | 131293 |
| ROC | Roc Oil Company | 3.87 | 0.12 | 3.2% | 2.42m |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAG | Cape Range Wireless | 0.007 | -0.003 | -30% | 13.53m |
| NRT | Novogen | 2.29 | -0.36 | -13.58% | 134368 |
| LYC | Lynas Corporation | 0.26 | -0.04 | -13.56% | 789828 |
| PSV | Perseverance Corporation | 0.32 | -0.05 | -12.33% | 3.44m |
| GDM | Goldstream Mining | 0.44 | -0.06 | -12% | 128419 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3600.522 | -12.51 | -0.35% | 23.38m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 14218.6 | -614.41 | -4.14% | -na- |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1203.86 | -35.98 | -2.9% | -na- |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2284.16 | -54.37 | -2.32% | -na- |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 15342.88 | -278.56 | -1.78% | 229.62m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 904.83 | -11.87 | -1.29% | -na- |
