Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

USRant: Off the Depp End (Not A Typo)...

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Alright - I admit it. I have liked Johnny Depp ever since the old "21 Jump Street" days. He always had something about him - poise, you might call it. Frankly he seems - to me at least - to be almost as versatile (and as talented) as John Malkovich; that is high praise considering the esteem in which I hold John Malkovich.

I only say this because in the last couple of days I've watched "Blow" (pretty good flick, actually), and "the Libertine" (a bit soppy, but Depp and Malkovich were sensational, notwithstanding the horrible fake nose they used on Malkovich). There were a couple of other Depp movies I've watched recently (I will never, EVER watch Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - never saw the first one, won't ever see the new one), and the guy is really some actor. I would love for him to have had a role in "Twelve Monkeys" - which to my way of thinking is Brad Pitt's best role apart from "Snatch".

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $5.25billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral. The repo was undertaken at 5% even - that is, no discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).

Major US Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 46.58 points (0.42%), closing out the day at 11002.14 points - call it 11000-ish. But for a very deliberately-engineered ramp at the end of the session, it would have been much more worser

The index hit an intraday high of 11094.26 about 5 minutes after the open, and fell as low as 10926.42 - the low was set at about 11:45 a.m. NY time. The low was re-tested with about half an hour to go, and held up well - generating a 50-point bounce in ten minutes.

Within the blue-chip index, 12 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, +1.35% to $60.94) and Merck (MRK, +1.28% to $33.90), which accounted for 10 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 18 and were led by General Motors (GM, -3.07% to $25.25) and United Technology (UTX, -2.28% to $60.05), with these two stocks contributing -18 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 374.3m shares to 150.7m.

The broader S&P500 dipped 1.44 points (0.11%), to end the session at 1263.85. Within the index, gainers numbered 202, while 265 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.8:1 in favour of the losers with 1409.83 million units traded in the losers as compared with 780.73 million traded in the winners .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite shed 6.84 points (0.32%), to close at 2162.78, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 losing 2.11 points (0.13%), to end at 1575.39 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 38, while 55 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 2.4:1 in favour of the losers with 623.98 million traded in the losers compared to 261.62 million in the winners .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.61 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was super-chunky (over 2 bill), with 2.09 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).


Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11002.14 -46.58 -0.42%
S&P500 1263.85 -1.44 -0.11%
Nasdaq Composite 2162.78 -6.84 -0.32%
Nasdaq100 1575.39 -2.11 -0.13%
NYSE Volume 2.61bn - -
Nasdaq Volume 2.09bn - -

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.65%

  • General Electric (GE) +$0.33 (0.96%) to $34.55;
  • Citigroup (C) +$0.14 (0.28%) to $49.76;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.16 (0.34%) to $47.03;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.70 (0.89%) to $79.76;
  • Intel (INTC) -$0.19 (1.06%) to $17.79;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.29 (1.46%) to $20.17;
  • eBay (EBAY) -$0.91 (2.8%) to $31.59;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.95 (1.9%) to $49.07; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -$1.99 (3.31%) to $58.11.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 2082 to 1158, for a single-day A/D reading of -924; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1833 to 1208. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to -741.1 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -697.6.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1717.8 to 854.1 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1373.4 to 695 million shares.

28 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 136 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 53 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 142 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics

NYSE Nasdaq
Advancers 1158 1208
Decliners 2082 1833
Advancing Volume (m) 854.14 695
Declining Volume (m) 1717.8 1373.43
New Highs 28 53
New Lows 136 142

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
CBOE Volatility Index 17.36 0.51 3.03%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index 22.04 1.07 5.1%
Equity Put-Call Ratio 0.61 0 0%
10-day PCR 0.58 0 0%
SPX-VIX Ratio 72.8 -2.29 -3.05%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 3.7 bps to 5.08%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly higher: five year yields fell to 4.943%, and ten-year yields fell to 5.006%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 470.0 bps wider at 38.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts rose to 69.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 105.5 bps for 20-years.

Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were broadly tighter with the AAA-A spread on 20-years wider at 28.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread  at 22.0 bps. If you think back to last year, there were times when the 10-year AAA-A spread was negative.

Treasury Yields
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
UST 13wk (yld) 4.737 0.035 0.74%
UST 2Y (yld) 4.98 0.01 0.2%
UST 5Y (yld) 4.943 -0.002 -0.04%
UST 10Y (yld) 5.006 -0.02 -0.4%
UST 30Y (yld) 5.08 -0.037 -0.72%

The Banks Index lost 0.17 points (0.16%), closing at 108.82; within the index,

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -$0.59 (1.37%) to $42.38;
  • Washington Mutual (WM) -$0.33 (0.73%) to $45.02;
  • State Street (STT) -$0.43 (0.7%) to $61.31;
  • Northern Trust (NTRS) -$0.30 (0.54%) to $55.75; and
  • National City Corp (NCC) -$0.16 (0.44%) to $36.56.

The Broker-dealer Index dipped 2.28 points (1.08%), at 208.87; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Ameritrade (AMTD) -$0.62 (3.77%) to $15.84;
  • Jeffries Group (JEF) -$1.00 (3.45%) to $27.98;
  • E*Trade (ET) -$0.45 (1.93%) to $22.92;
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) -$0.73 (1.02%) to $70.88; and
  • A G Edwards (AGE) -$0.47 (0.87%) to $53.36.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index lost 2.06 points (0.45%), ending the day at 458.36

  • Broadcom (BRCM) -$1.95 (5.87%) to $31.25;
  • Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) -$0.84 (1.7%) to $48.45;
  • Infineon Tech (IFX) -$0.18 (1.58%) to $11.20;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -$0.24 (1.49%) to $15.86; and
  • Intel (INTC) -$0.19 (1.06%) to $17.79.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $14 (2.16%) to close at $634.70 per ounce.

The Gold Bugs Index shed 9.94 points (3.03%), ending the day at 318.14

  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$1.71 (5.3%) to $30.58;
  • Gold Fields (GFI) -$1.01 (4.91%) to $19.58;
  • Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$1.60 (4.88%) to $31.21;
  • Iamgold (IAG) -$0.47 (4.79%) to $9.34; and
  • Glamis Gold (GLG) -$1.48 (3.93%) to $36.16.

Silver fell by $0.45 (3.66%) to close at $11.85 per ounce. 

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 3.91 points (2.8%), ending the day at 135.92 points.

  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$1.71 (5.3%) to $30.58;
  • Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$2.26 (4.91%) to $43.81;
  • Gold Fields (GFI) -$1.01 (4.91%) to $19.58; and
  • Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$1.60 (4.88%) to $31.21.
Precious Metals and Indices
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 634.70 -14.00 -2.16%
Silver 11.85 -0.45 -3.66%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index 135.92 -3.91 -2.8%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index 318.14 -9.94 -3.03%

Oil Market

Oil lost a teensy bit of ground, shedding $0.10 per barrel to finish at $72.50 per barrel. 

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) lost 4.94 points (0.45%), at 1087.39

  • TotalFinaElf S.A. (TOT) -$1.03 (1.59%) to $63.76;
  • Sunoco (SUN) -$0.88 (1.29%) to $67.41; and
  • BP (BP) -$0.76 (1.07%) to $70.06.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index shed 0.93 points (0.44%), closing at 210.37

  • Global Industries (GLBL) -$0.94 (4.91%) to $18.19;
  • GlobalSantaFe (GSF) -$0.93 (1.59%) to $57.53; and
  • Halliburton (HAL) -$0.87 (1.17%) to $73.38.
Energy Complex
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Reuters CRB 379.25 -5.25 -1.37%
Crude Oil Light Sweet 72.5 -0.1 -0.14%
Heating Oil 2.0426 0 0%
Natural Gas 6.385 -0.08 -1.21%
Unleaded Gas 2.1788 0.01 0.67%
AMEX Oil Index 1087.39 -4.94 -0.45%
Oil Service Index 210.37 -0.93 -0.44%

Currency Markets

Notice something? The soothing noises made by Iran (regarding keeping - for now - its oil trade in USD) did nothing of note for the USD Index. The index (the USD crosses generally) were primed for a bounce (technically speaking), and frankly I would have expected the Iranians' "backing away" from a Euro-denominated oil bourse, to have given slow late dumb dollar shorts a real pain in their collective scrotii. As it is, it's just a case of jock itch.

USD Exchange Rates
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
US Dollar Index 84.68 0.6 0.71%
Euro 1.2836 -0.0078 -0.6%
Yen 113.285 1.13 1.01%
Sterling 1.8608 -0.0118 -0.63%
Australian Dollar 0.7411 -0.0069 -0.92%
Swiss Franc 1.215 0.0078 0.65%
Canadian Dollar 0.8985 -0.0047 -0.52%