Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, November 12, 2007

TootRant: USRant Still on Hiatus...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

But boy, didn't the last hour of action stink in the States!

Wanna know what's embarrassing? When I try to toot my own horn, and stuff it up. In today's OzRant I referred to the bounce off the September low... and as I wrote it I thought "Hmmm... was it only that recent?" but since I have amazing powers of self-belief, I ignored the doubts and hit 'Post'. A long-time reader pointed out to me that although I was right (in that I declared a bounce on the day of the market's August low), it was definitively not in September.

For the record, here is the relevant bit: (I've redacted the "Rude Pundit" style language, in case the kiddies are watching)...

The next market move will be a move back towards (and possibly exceeding, slightly) the old highs... just to make all these new bearish know-it-all motherf*kers look stupid. Then when they are all in a circle jerking off to the tune of the "We all said Ben Bernanke is a Genius", they will get a new a*hole torn for them. Well, not for them, exactly, because these subhuman pustules take their income in the form of fees off other peoples money... they are not silly enough to believe their own bullsh!t and back it with their own dough.

PrepRant - Aug 15th 2007

The low of the August swoon? August 16th.

And I mentioned that the bounce would take the indices towards - and possibly slightly exceeding, slightly - their record highs. The Dow's new record high from October 11th is roughly 150 Dow points above the old mark (set on July 19th). But as I said this morning, Asian indices have really got their "Nuffies at Work" signs out. That just means more downside to ride...

You should not be too surprised that I would be a 'contrarian contrarian'; I am the chap who - on July 20th, 2005, declared that VIX futures below 10 was a screaming buy... currently the VIX futures are above 30. Oil, gold, Euro longs - all years before they were mainstream ideas. China as a superpower when the world was talking about unipolarity; US military weakness when everyone was talking about a New American Century.

Those of you who read my stuff know my watchwords: if journalists from MainSwamp are all on the same side of the boat, the best place to be is the opposite side. It is almost as good an indicator as my lovely "Dumb Bull Ratio" for commodities (the proportion of small - and therefore mostly dumb - money in total long open interest). 

Tomorrow I will try to reinstal my rather nifty RantCharts (for Commodities, the Yield Curve, Contango Charts and ofcourse Aussie stocks and indices).