Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, January 31, 2008

OzRant: I'm So Dizzy...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

By now it's pretty clear to anybody who is watching, that the Strayan market doesn't know if it's Arthur or Martha. That aside, you have to be pretty impressed (if slightly dismayed) at the ability of the hopeful (and those punting OPM) to generate a pretty significant rally intraday whenever the mood takes them.

 Today the push off the low coincided with a low print of pretty much exactly 5450 on the ASX200 and 5500 on the All Ords - and as rallies go it was almost manic: 190 All Ords points in just over 90 minutes.

This is not a rally to buy - the internals are lousy, and the intraday volatility makes the entire market stink to high heaven. Plus, if you were listening on the day of the recent swing low, you took a leveraged long position that day, cashed it out the following session for a 100% gain, and have been kicking yourself for not riding the follow through. It was stil la sucky call though...

Still, it's good to see News Corpse getting its head kicked; it's lost a third of its value over the last year. Actually, a third of its stock price...it can't lose a third of its value because the stock has an embodied value of ZERO. It will take a Skase-like event to finally make the scales fall from the eyes of the investing community, but once News can no longer afford to buy recommendations from Wall Street, they will desert it like rats off a sinking ship.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 31.7 points (0.56%), finishing at 5697 points. The index plunged to an intraday low of 5507 between the open and 10:30 am, then set off like a duck shot in the bum, hitting the intraday high (5697) just after midday. It then pulled back 100 points between noon and 2 p.m., then set off skywards again, to close pretty much at the noon levels.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.46 billion units,3% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1365 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 478 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 665.3 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 640 stocks were dragged below the Plimsoll line, with aggregate volume traded of 684 million shares.

Of the 478 All Ordinaries components, 183 rose while 237 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 448.69 million shares traded in gainers while 512.43 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 31.6 points (0.56%), closing out the session at 5650.3 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - advanced by under a percent, adding 28.9 points (0.93%), closing out the session at 3126.2 points.

Among the 20 big guns, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 11 advancing stocks just triumphedover the rest. The index components traded a total of 200.17 million units; 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 123.08 million shares, while the 10 decliners had volume traded totalling 77.08 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), +$6.11 (5.34%) to $120.45 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Brambles Limited (BXB), +$0.29 (2.82%) to $10.58 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), +$0.70 (1.94%) to $36.81 on volume of 14.5 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$0.60 (1.78%) to $34.29 on volume of 7.1 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$0.51 (1.47%) to $35.26 on volume of 2.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • CSL Limited (CSL), -$1.81 (5.04%) to $34.09 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.26 (3.01%) to $8.37 on volume of 10.1 million shares;
  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$0.72 (2.53%) to $27.78 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.7 (2.37%) to $28.80 on volume of 6.4 million shares; and
  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.12 (2.09%) to $5.61 on volume of 6.4 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market significantly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 4.5 points (0.14%), closing out the session at 3292.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 90 index components finished to the upside, and 90 closed lower for the session.

The 192 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 281.51 million units: volume in the 90 gainers totalling 128.97 million shares, with trade totalling 139.61 million units in the index's 90 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), +$0.08 (10.56%) to $0.79 on volume of 17.7 million shares;
  • Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL), +$0.08 (6.88%) to $1.17 on volume of 558.3 thousand shares;
  • Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.08 (6.47%) to $1.24 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Aditya Birla Minerals limited (ABY), +$0.11 (6.04%) to $1.93 on volume of 2.6 million shares; and
  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.16 (5.06%) to $3.32 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • AED Oil Limited (AED), -$0.19 (8.05%) to $2.17 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Gindalbie Metals Ltd (GBG), -$0.06 (7.69%) to $0.72 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • Cudeco Limited (CDU), -$0.2 (6.35%) to $2.95 on volume of 319 thousand shares;
  • Bannerman Resources Limited (BMN), -$0.17 (5.86%) to $2.73 on volume of 542.4 thousand shares; and
  • Pharmaxis Ltd (PXS), -$0.18 (5.49%) to $3.10 on volume of 342 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5697 31.7 0.56 1012.5m
XFL ASX 50 5501.5 39 0.71 366.6m
XJO ASX 200 5650.3 31.6 0.56 878.9m
XKO ASX 300 5655.8 30.6 0.54 950.4m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 5815.7 -3.7 -0.06 302.3m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3292.4 4.5 0.14 281.5m
XTL ASX 20 3126.2 28.9 0.93 200.2m
XTO ASX 100 4581.7 27.1 0.6 668.9m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 11 42 43 183 90 478
Declines 10 56 56 236 90 640
Advancing Volume 123.1m 302.8m 304.6m 448.7m 129m 665.3 million
Declining Volume 77.1m 348.2m 348.2m 506.5m 139.6m 684 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds... the 5 that had an "up" day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn't.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 290.7 points (2.12%) to 13982.3 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 218.33 million units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 58.99 million shares, while the 24 decliners had volume traded totalling 159.34 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), +$6.11 (5.34%) to $120.45 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Minara Resources Limited (MRE), +$0.21 (4.47%) to $4.91 on volume of 825.8 thousand shares;
  • Macarthur Coal Limited (MCC), +$0.30 (3.09%) to $10.00 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL), +$2.93 (2.51%) to $119.53 on volume of 276.5 thousand shares; and
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), +$0.04 (2.5%) to $1.64 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Industrials (XNJ), which gained 77.7 points (1.35%) to 5845.2 points. The 30 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 93.35 million units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 71.21 million shares, while the 13 decliners had volume traded totalling 21.65 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), +$0.08 (10.56%) to $0.79 on volume of 17.7 million shares;
  • Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH), +$0.05 (3.85%) to $1.35 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Brambles Limited (BXB), +$0.29 (2.82%) to $10.58 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • PMP Limited (PMP), +$0.05 (2.78%) to $1.67 on volume of 1.5 million shares; and
  • Qantas Airways Limited (QAN), +$0.12 (2.68%) to $4.60 on volume of 10.5 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Energy (XEJ), which climbed 125.3 points (0.93%) to 13636.6 points. The 18 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 59.83 million units; 11 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 42.01 million shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 16.56 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.16 (5.06%) to $3.32 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited (AWE), +$0.10 (3.04%) to $3.39 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), +$0.04 (2.7%) to $1.52 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Beach Petroleum Limited (BPT), +$0.04 (2.63%) to $1.37 on volume of 4.4 million shares; and
  • Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY), +$0.08 (2.31%) to $3.55 on volume of 5.2 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Healthcare (XHJ), which dipped 198.1 points (2.12%) to 9125.3 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.55 million units; The 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.82 million units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 6.73 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), -$1.81 (5.04%) to $34.09 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Cochlear Limited (COH), -$1.96 (2.76%) to $68.95 on volume of 177.1 thousand shares; and
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), -$0.06 (1.17%) to $5.06 on volume of 1.1 million shares.
As a side note, it is pretty clear to me that everyone still lives in the forlorn hope that CSL, COH and RMD are the next CSL. News flash - MSFT is not the next MSFT, GOOG is not the next GOOG, and CSL is not the next CSL. BUt NWS is the next DavNet... give it time.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which slid 69 points (0.88%) to 7796.3 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 38.05 million units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 23.84 million units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 4.11 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • AWB Limited (AWB), -$0.09 (3.96%) to $2.18 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Metcash Limited (MTS), -$0.13 (3.05%) to $4.13 on volume of 3.8 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.7 (2.37%) to $28.80 on volume of 6.4 million shares;
  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.12 (2.09%) to $5.61 on volume of 6.4 million shares; and
  • Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), -$0.09 (0.95%) to $9.36 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Information Technology (XIJ), which slid 3.4 points (0.73%) to 460.5 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1.73 million units; The declining stock traded 1.46 million units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.28 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), -$0.09 (1.13%) to $7.90 on volume of 1.5 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XMJ Materials 13982.3 290.7 2.12 218m
XNJ Industrials 5845.2 77.7 1.35 93m
XEJ Energy 13636.6 125.3 0.93 60m
XPJ Property Trusts 1817.2 16.4 0.91 188m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2375.6 1.3 0.05 45m
XTJ Telecommunications 1528.3 -0.7 -0.05 95m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 6244.7 -5.6 -0.09 97m
XIJ Information Technology 460.5 -3.4 -0.73 2m
XUJ Utilities 5830.4 -43.1 -0.73 33m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7796.3 -69 -0.88 38m
XHJ Healthcare 9125.3 -198.1 -2.12 11m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
OXR Oxiana Limited 2.96 -0.01 -0.34 62.6m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.36 0.02 0.46 61.6m
VPG Valad Property Group 1.06 -0.05 -4.52 34.4m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.66 0.01 0.76 33.1m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 2.79 -0.01 -0.36 25.7m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BGD Boulder Steel Limited 0.26 0.04 18.18 9.3k
EHL Emeco Holdings Ltd 0.79 0.08 10.56 17.7m
MDL Mineral Deposits Limited 1.17 0.08 6.88 558.3k
BJT Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust 1.24 0.08 6.47 2.3m
ABY Aditya Birla Minerals limited 1.93 0.11 6.04 2.6m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
LFE Life Therapeutics Limited 0.21 -0.04 -14.29 204.5k
PFG Prime Financial Group Limited 0.43 -0.06 -12.24 29k
SPH Sphere Investments Limited 1.90 -0.26 -12.04 7.1k
KMN Kings Minerals NL 0.40 -0.05 -11.11 323.8k
CPK CP1 Limited 0.45 -0.05 -10 145.9k