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Thursday, January 17, 2008

OzRant: Nine??? Aber... Nein, Nein!

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Nine consecutive sessions of declines - now that's something you just don't see every day. The worst consecutive set of declines since 2000, this is. In the second week of March 2003, the All Ords registered 7 consecutive declining sessions, during which time it lost 4.08%; this latest set of declines has been 9 sessions long and has amounted to a loss of 8.28% - tomorrow I will tell youse the last time the All Ords had a period anywhere near that bad.

It's not helping that the Resources sector is being weighed down by recent retracements in precious metals and Energy prices, at the same time as banks are suffering from a decline in mortgage demand and global jitters regarding the toxic sludge on their loan books. Not any Australian bank in particular, but there is a global risk of cascading defaults due to counterparty failure, plus the risk of being dragged into the upcoming round of lawsuits over US subprime issuance...  there are moves afoot internationally to hold the feet of US banks and merchant/investment banks to the fire over illegal sales practices in the marketing of the CDOs that were so popular just a few months ago.

It goes like this: a lot of bond managers and trustees of large retirement portfolios were too lazy to do their own due diligence: as such, they just wanted someone to tell them that these CDOs were good enough to stick in their portfolio. A merchant banker will say and do anything for a fee, and some of the marketing was apparently illegal on its face.

And here is where it gets interesting: there is a genuine risk that the issuers of the CDOs will have to buy them back at face value if impropriety can be proved. The portfolio manager gets a 'Get Out of Jail Free' card (or more accurately a 'Get These Losses out Of My Portfolio, Free' card), since a lot of this garbage is now trading at 20 cents in the dollar. But the banks... hoo boy, the banks. We are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars - it will make the recent raft of writedowns look like a walk in the park. And then the banks will turn on the investment bankers, and everyone in the financial sector will start eating each other.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of parasites. Except if it happened to politicians, of course, since at least the shonks who work for the major brokerages and investment banks are sort of engaged in private sector activity. Nobody gets forced to use their services - they rely solely on 'brand recognition'  (i.e., laziness and ignorance) amongst corporate managements.

   

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined gently, dropping 13.8 points (0.24%), finishing at 5857 points. The index hit an intraday high of about 5903 at about 10:45 am, while the low for the day was about 5848 (5850, in round Pickens) - set just before 3pm.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.61 billion units, its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1443 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 468 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 782.1 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 679 stocks were dragged below the Plimsoll line, with aggregate volume traded of 614.2 million shares.

Of the 478 All Ordinaries components, 212 rose while 213 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.2:1, with 507.71 million shares traded in gainers while 419.61 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 13.6 points (0.23%), closing out the session at 5796.1 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 23.9 points (0.75%), closing out the session at 3184 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 8 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 13 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 186.24 million units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 61.57 million shares, while the 13 decliners had volume traded totalling 124.67 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Brambles Limited (BXB), +$0.24 (2.27%) to $10.80 on volume of 5.5 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$0.63 (1.81%) to $35.37 on volume of 6 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.11 (1.5%) to $7.43 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.28 (1.1%) to $25.69 on volume of 8 million shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), +$0.26 (1%) to $26.20 on volume of 10.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), -$4.36 (3.55%) to $118.60 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$1.02 (2.72%) to $36.50 on volume of 18.3 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$1.21 (2.29%) to $51.53 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.11 (1.87%) to $5.77 on volume of 11.4 million shares; and
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.56 (1.75%) to $31.40 on volume of 5 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small-fry swam in the opposite direction to the big fish today. The big guys got their clock punched while the minnows posted a gain. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 11.3 points (0.32%), closing out the session at 3493.2 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 99 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 82 closed lower for the session.

The 192 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 270.41 million units: volume in the 99 gainers totalling 113.73 million shares, with trade totalling 146.92 million units in the index's 82 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), +$0.08 (8.33%) to $1.04 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH), +$0.10 (6.94%) to $1.54 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Galileo Japan Trust (GJT), +$0.05 (6.47%) to $0.74 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Ansell Limited (ANN), +$0.64 (6.21%) to $10.94 on volume of 645.9 thousand shares; and
  • Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.07 (6.19%) to $1.20 on volume of 2.7 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.06 (15.71%) to $0.30 on volume of 26.6 million shares;
  • AED Oil Limited (AED), -$0.33 (8.57%) to $3.52 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Super Cheap Auto Group Limited (SUL), -$0.29 (7.18%) to $3.75 on volume of 74.5 thousand shares;
  • Aditya Birla Minerals limited (ABY), -$0.16 (6.96%) to $2.14 on volume of 2.9 million shares; and
  • Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN), -$0.32 (5.93%) to $5.08 on volume of 193.1 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5857 -13.8 -0.24 965.9m
XFL ASX 50 5615.6 -27.3 -0.48 380.9m
XJO ASX 200 5796.1 -13.6 -0.23 849.9m
XKO ASX 300 5807.4 -13.6 -0.23 915.9m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 6009.9 41.6 0.7 264.5m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3493.2 11.3 0.32 270.4m
XTL ASX 20 3184 -23.9 -0.75 186.2m
XTO ASX 100 4685.6 -14.1 -0.3 645.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 8 58 58 211 99 468
Declines 13 39 40 213 82 679
Advancing Volume 61.6m 373.2m 373.2m 499.9m 113.7m 782.1 million
Declining Volume 124.7m 241.4m 244.6m 419.6m 146.9m 614.2 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 6 advancing sectors just triumphed the 5 losing sectors.

The best performing index was Utilities (XUJ), which added 129.6 points (2.08%) to 6371.5 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 21.61 million units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 18.58 million shares, while sole declining stock traded 3.03 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.14 (6.14%) to $2.42 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI), +$0.05 (3.57%) to $1.45 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • AGL Energy Limited (AGK), +$0.34 (2.64%) to $13.24 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
  • Envestra Limited (ENV), +$0.02 (2.27%) to $0.90 on volume of 728.5 thousand shares; and
  • APA Group (APA), +$0.07 (2.1%) to $3.41 on volume of 755.1 thousand shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was the two stock Information Technology (XIJ) sector index, which gained 8.3 points (1.71%) to 492.6 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 3.77 million units; the lone rising index component had volume amounting to 2.71 million shares, while sole declining stock traded 1.06 million units. The only gainer within the index was

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), +$0.21 (2.53%) to $8.50 on volume of 2.7 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Industrials (XNJ), which climbed 93.7 points (1.56%) to 6083.2 points. The 30 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 103.29 million units; 23 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 78.56 million shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 23.69 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), +$0.08 (8.33%) to $1.04 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH), +$0.10 (6.94%) to $1.54 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Downer Edi Limited (DOW), +$0.25 (4.72%) to $5.55 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX), +$0.12 (4.41%) to $2.84 on volume of 722.2 thousand shares; and
  • Leighton Holdings Limited (LEI), +$2.10 (4.41%) to $49.70 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 254.8 points (1.79%) to 13970 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 173.28 million units; The 22 decliners had volume traded totalling 110.12 million units, and 19 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 55.79 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP), -$0.8 (5.63%) to $13.40 on volume of 328.2 thousand shares;
  • Pan Australian Resources Limited (PNA), -$0.06 (5.26%) to $0.99 on volume of 7.7 million shares;
  • Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC), -$0.07 (4.94%) to $1.25 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
  • Sino Gold Mining Limited (SGX), -$0.37 (4.62%) to $7.63 on volume of 2 million shares; and
  • Western Areas NL (WSA), -$0.21 (4.42%) to $4.54 on volume of 589.5 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which slid 97.2 points (1.17%) to 8211.5 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 42.61 million units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 23.9 million units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 18.71 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.11 (1.87%) to $5.77 on volume of 11.4 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.56 (1.75%) to $31.40 on volume of 5 million shares;
  • AWB Limited (AWB), -$0.04 (1.45%) to $2.71 on volume of 979.1 thousand shares;
  • Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL), -$0.13 (1.36%) to $9.44 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), -$0.35 (0.94%) to $36.89 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Energy (XEJ), which slid 135.2 points (0.92%) to 14515.9 points. The 18 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 41.02 million units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 28.29 million units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.73 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • AED Oil Limited (AED), -$0.33 (8.57%) to $3.52 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
  • Arrow Energy NL (AOE), -$0.12 (5.48%) to $2.07 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Straits Resources Limited (SRL), -$0.27 (4.56%) to $5.65 on volume of 907.7 thousand shares;
  • Paladin Energy Limited (PDN), -$0.2 (3.31%) to $5.84 on volume of 3.7 million shares; and
  • Santos Limited (STO), -$0.39 (2.8%) to $13.53 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XUJ Utilities 6371.5 129.6 2.08 22m
XIJ Information Technology 492.6 8.3 1.71 4m
XNJ Industrials 6083.2 93.7 1.56 103m
XPJ Property Trusts 1816.8 18.9 1.05 233m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2437.6 20.7 0.86 46m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 6452.2 21.3 0.33 101m
XHJ Healthcare 9123.2 -11.7 -0.13 11m
XTJ Telecommunications 1583.4 -13.9 -0.87 73m
XEJ Energy 14515.9 -135.2 -0.92 41m
XSJ Consumer Staples 8211.5 -97.2 -1.17 43m
XMJ Materials 13970 -254.8 -1.79 173m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.51 0.05 10.87 48.3m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.48 -0.03 -0.67 33.2m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 2.92 -0.03 -1.02 28.7m
CER Centro Retail 0.30 -0.06 -15.71 26.6m
SDL Sundance Resources Limited 0.31 -0.01 -1.59 26.2m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
HTA Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) Limited 0.15 0.02 11.11 761.7k
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.51 0.05 10.87 48.3m
PVE Po Valley Energy Limited 1.80 0.14 8.43 21.8k
EHL Emeco Holdings Ltd 1.04 0.08 8.33 4.4m
MAH Macmahon Holdings Limited 1.54 0.10 6.94 2.9m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BGD Boulder Steel Limited 0.19 -0.05 -19.15 20.5k
CER Centro Retail 0.30 -0.06 -15.71 26.6m
PBD Port Bouvard Limited 1.54 -0.16 -9.17 413.1k
VRLPA Village Roadshow Limited (PA) 2.91 -0.29 -9.06 0.6k
AED AED Oil Limited 3.52 -0.33 -8.57 1.5m