Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

OzRant: Of Snot and Hair Products...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Late, I know... my contribution to global mucus production has actually accelerated somewhat, and the output is a very fine example of the snotmaker's craft. Thicker than contact adhesive left in a warm room for five minutes, and greener than the pus that oozes from the hole where Cheney's conscience ought to reside. Getting the stuff out through my finely constructed (but prone to contraction) bronchii requires coughing on a scale to wake the dead... and thus the lack of sleep.

Odd numbers are interesting... by 'odd' I don't mean 'not divisible by 2', I mean as in 'Gee that's odd..'  Today the odd number was the sharp rise in  building approvals in the housing sector. Approvals rose 8.9% for the month (the month was November) and 14.6% year to date (the year was 2007). 

Now before you all go out and get teaser-rate negative amortisation 110% LTV mortgages on inner city flat redevelopments, let's delve a little.

The number was a blowout solely because of approvals for multi-occupant dwellings - apartments, mostly - many of which will never be finished because the finance for them is likely to dry up before a sod is turned. And the overwhelming bulk of those were in Sydney. There is little likelihood that half of them get to the stage where a passer-by can get a full visual on a Brickie's Smile. 

And then there's the question of the selling price for those that are actually completed.

Poor little Craig James (of CommSec) tried to out-Petrovski Petrovski in the 'mindless drivel' department - babbling about how the entire world had been waiting soooo long for the housing market to recover, while - in referring to Godot - also used the single most overused piece of pseudo-literary referencing known to man. He ought to know better - Petrovski has the excuse that he is just a big lump of congealed hair products. 

Fact is, the pain in the housing sector is for the most part, yet to come. Find a chart of rental yields by city and you will see that owners are still being rather benevolent to renters, because owners still think that there are embedded capital gains in the wings.

I have often said that the deregulation undertaken by the Hawke-Keating government endowed Straya with a very handsome set of economic stabilisers, but that only pertains to its ability to withstand external shocks. In the event of an external shock, the currency depreciates, which does a bunch of things that you would prefer - $A prices received for exports rise, which helps export-oriented businesses like miners and so forth. However when the problem is entirely internal - like a speculative housing boom which is fed to the gills by government policy and central bank pump-priming - then the external stabilisers are no good.  

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined 34.7 points (0.56%), finishing at 6205.7 points. The index tried to rally out of the blocks, and hit an intraday high of 6259.6 at 10:49 am. That was all she wrote on the advance side of the ledger, and the Ords proceeded to fall 60 points in the ensuing hour. The low for the day was 6195.4 - set at 12:14 pm - and thereafter it was sideways, in a 25-point range.

Hereafter, I think that I will refer to a 25-point range as a Marchesani, in honour of the fact that Carlton Footy club disgraced itself by giving Jezza's number to its golden boy recruit way back when. (Just kidding... 25 points is hereafter a Picken, in honour of the most ungainly key position player in footy history).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.85 billion units, 9% above its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1455 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 440 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 1.03 billion units. Despite the strong volume in advancing issues, 706 stocks fell, with aggregate volume traded of 662.8 million shares.

Of the 480 All Ordinaries components, 168 rose while 244 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.7:1, with 232.29 million shares traded in gainers while 390.7 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 33.5 points (0.54%), closing out the session at 6128.1 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid by a little under a percent (significantly worse than the All Ords), falling 28 points (0.82%), closing out the session at 3367.4 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 5 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 16 closed lower for the session. The index components traded a total of 119.97 million units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 11.06 million shares, while the 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 108.91 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$0.70 (2.03%) to $35.20 on volume of 930 thousand shares;
  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), +$0.18 (0.57%) to $31.54 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$0.30 (0.52%) to $57.50 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.09 (0.33%) to $27.24 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), +$0.04 (0.15%) to $26.73 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Brambles Limited (BXB), -$0.28 (2.54%) to $10.76 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.24 (2.49%) to $9.41 on volume of 6.6 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$0.9 (2.25%) to $39.12 on volume of 11.9 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), -$0.7 (2.22%) to $30.79 on volume of 1.7 million shares; and
  • Suncorp-Metway Limited. (SUN), -$0.35 (2.15%) to $15.90 on volume of 4.6 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market , while still dropping overall, did significantly better than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords slid modestly, falling 13.6 points (0.36%), closing out the session at 3740.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 77 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 102 closed lower for the session.

The 193 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 154.25 million units: volume in the 77 gainers totalling 63.19 million shares, with trade totalling 80.61 million units in the index's 102 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Mintails Limited (MLI), +$0.04 (5.69%) to $0.65 on volume of 120.6 thousand shares;
  • Duet Group (DUE), +$0.11 (3.99%) to $2.87 on volume of 918.7 thousand shares;
  • Equinox Minerals Limited (EQN), +$0.26 (3.98%) to $6.80 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Great Southern Limited (GTP), +$0.06 (3.44%) to $1.81 on volume of 861.8 thousand shares; and
  • Galileo Japan Trust (GJT), +$0.03 (3.29%) to $0.79 on volume of 486.1 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.1 (10.7%) to $0.84 on volume of 7.5 million shares;
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.18 (7.53%) to $2.21 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), -$0.03 (7.41%) to $0.38 on volume of 8 million shares;
  • Sally Malay Mining Limited (SMY), -$0.36 (6.51%) to $5.17 on volume of 1 million shares; and
  • Gindalbie Metals Ltd (GBG), -$0.06 (5.66%) to $1.00 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 6205.7 -34.7 -0.56 647.1m
XTL ASX 20 3367.4 -28 -0.82 120m
XFL ASX 50 5933.3 -39 -0.65 269.4m
XTO ASX 100 4950.6 -28.5 -0.57 437.1m
XJO ASX 200 6128.1 -33.5 -0.54 545.2m
XKO ASX 300 6145 -33.9 -0.55 591.3m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 6349.8 -7.9 -0.12 167.6m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3740.1 -13.6 -0.36 154.3m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 5 38 38 168 77 440
Declines 16 57 58 244 102 706
Advancing Volume 11.1m 151.8m 151.8m 232.3m 63.2m 1.03 billion
Declining Volume 108.9m 277.3m 278.3m 390.7m 80.6m 662.8 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 3 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 7 lost ground.

The best performing index was Healthcare (XHJ), which added 91.2 points (0.98%) to 9384.1 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 11.57 million units; 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 6.39 million shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.18 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$0.70 (2.03%) to $35.20 on volume of 930 thousand shares; and
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.02 (0.96%) to $1.59 on volume of 5.5 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Utilities (XUJ), which gained 34 points (0.53%) to 6476.7 points. The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 14.93 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 11.05 million shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.88 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Duet Group (DUE), +$0.11 (3.99%) to $2.87 on volume of 918.7 thousand shares;
  • Sp Ausnet (SPN), +$0.02 (1.67%) to $1.22 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Wind Partners Group (BBW), +$0.03 (1.49%) to $1.70 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group (BBI), +$0.01 (0.66%) to $1.53 on volume of 5.1 million shares; and
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), +$0.01 (0.52%) to $1.95 on volume of 866.5 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Energy (XEJ), which climbed 28.4 points (0.18%) to 15600.2 points. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 26.01 million units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 13.91 million shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 11.08 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.07 (2.27%) to $3.15 on volume of 692.9 thousand shares;
  • Caltex Australia Limited (CTX), +$0.40 (2.18%) to $18.78 on volume of 954.3 thousand shares;
  • Worleyparsons Limited (WOR), +$0.53 (1.09%) to $48.94 on volume of 343.1 thousand shares;
  • Straits Resources Limited (SRL), +$0.06 (0.95%) to $6.38 on volume of 326.1 thousand shares; and
  • Roc Oil Company Limited (ROC), +$0.02 (0.65%) to $3.10 on volume of 498.8 thousand shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 198.4 points (1.33%) to 14675.5 points. The 43 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 87.98 million units; The 22 decliners had volume traded totalling 58.39 million units, and 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 21.98 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.18 (7.53%) to $2.21 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), -$0.03 (7.41%) to $0.38 on volume of 8 million shares;
  • Sally Malay Mining Limited (SMY), -$0.36 (6.51%) to $5.17 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Minara Resources Limited (MRE), -$0.28 (4.57%) to $5.85 on volume of 2 million shares; and
  • Timbercorp Limited (TIM), -$0.05 (3.77%) to $1.28 on volume of 2 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Information Technology (XIJ), which slid 6.3 points (1.15%) to 541.7 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1 million units; The declining stock traded 0.78 million units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.22 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), -$0.12 (1.28%) to $9.23 on volume of 778.7 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 22.6 points (1.14%) to 1953.6 points. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 169.11 million units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 117.67 million units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 51.44 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.1 (10.7%) to $0.84 on volume of 7.5 million shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.06 (3.82%) to $1.51 on volume of 12.4 million shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.07 (2.98%) to $2.28 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.04 (2.92%) to $1.17 on volume of 35.6 million shares; and
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.16 (2.77%) to $5.61 on volume of 11.6 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XHJ Healthcare 9384.1 91.2 0.98 12m
XUJ Utilities 6476.7 34 0.53 15m
XEJ Energy 15600.2 28.4 0.18 26m
XSJ Consumer Staples 8749.4 -0.2 0 22m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2611.6 -6.2 -0.24 34m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 6861.1 -21.1 -0.31 55m
XNJ Industrials 6299.3 -29.3 -0.46 67m
XTJ Telecommunications 1634.7 -13.2 -0.8 57m
XPJ Property Trusts 1953.6 -22.6 -1.14 169m
XIJ Information Technology 541.7 -6.3 -1.15 1m
XMJ Materials 14675.5 -198.4 -1.33 88m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CNP Centro Properties Group 1.17 -0.04 -2.92 35.6m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.59 -0.05 -1.08 31.9m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 3.05 -0.04 -1.29 19.9m
VPG Valad Property Group 1.19 0.01 0.85 18.8m
GPT GPT Group 3.92 0.07 1.82 16.1m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
PFG Prime Financial Group Limited 0.73 0.08 11.54 14.2k
HIG Highlands Pacific Limited 0.14 0.01 7.69 513.3k
GNC Graincorp Limited 11.10 0.75 7.25 277.3k
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.37 0.03 7.25 94.8k
CUV Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited 0.35 0.02 6.06 475.1k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CER Centro Retail 0.84 -0.10 -10.7 7.5m
PEM Perilya Limited 2.21 -0.18 -7.53 3.7m
SDL Sundance Resources Limited 0.38 -0.03 -7.41 8m
SPH Sphere Investments Limited 2.97 -0.23 -7.19 65.6k
AIM Aim Resources Limited 0.14 -0.01 -6.67 4.5m