Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, January 10, 2008

OzRant: Still Soft, But A Late Surge...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Note to Centro - if it was one of your employees babbling in the foyer, don't go too hard on them. if it was someone from the regulator, you've got Buckley's chance (by which I don't mean Nathan Buckley's chance of hitting his intended target with a 50-metre stab pass off the left foot, through traffic).

I personally find all this "overheard in the foyer" stuff absolutely laughable. What has happened is that someone - either at the regulator itself, or a disgruntled current or former employee - has told the journalist on the QT, and the covering story has been agreed upon so that the whistle-blower remains in the shadows. David 'Got to Pick a Pocket or Two' Fagan (CEP of Clayton Utz) ought to take this on board - when someone is outside the tent pissing in, they can cause all sorts of problems, and if there is the slightest blot on your corporate escutcheon, heads roll. Examples - the Victorian state legal services board, and the NSW one too. There has been all sorts of conversation in the foyers of their respective buildings.

Anyway - the Centro debacle shows what can happen when managers grab for the brass ring by trying to be smart-asses in order to juice up their own remuneration by being announcement driven, taking on excessive debt, and basically transmuting from corporate managers to leveraged punters. As if the George Herscu story doesn't give enough warning of the risks associated with over-reach in the property sector - the Centro management appear to have behaved like the dumbest of dumb American (or British) buy-to-let 'investors'. I wonder if they (the Centro management) went to one of those 'get rich in 5 minutes in Property' seminars...

Economic data out today focused on the Trade Deficit; the number (for November 2007) turned out to be better than expected at $2.25 billion (about half of a week's worth of Herod Bush's Massacre of the Innocents in Iraq). The trade deficit number had little effect on the Strayan dollar though - it traded in a narrow range for the entire session.

 

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - shed roughly half a Picken, dropping 12.2 points (0.2%), finishing at 6147.3 points (6150-ish). The index tried to jump out of the box like a greyhound out of the trap, but after hitting an intraday high of 6176 (6175, when expressed in Pickens) at 10:17 am, ran out of puff. From there the Ords dropped 50 points in the following couple of hours, setting the low for the day at 6122.7 (6125-ish) - set at 12:38 pm. It then remained soft until 3 p.m., when some lipstick was applied to The Empress in a bid to prevent yet another negative session... but all that happened was a move to the middle of the day's range.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.69 billion units, 2% above its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1463 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 505 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 614.8 million units; contrariwise), 941 million shares changed hands in the 641 stocks who provided 'negative improvements' to portfolios.

Of the 480 All Ordinaries components, 178 rose while 237 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.5:1, with 316.73 million shares traded in gainers while 475.77 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - very nearly got back to square by the close, eventually closing with a loss of just 99 points (0.15%), closing out the session at 6078.7 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - got into to the green zone for the session, adding 3.7 points (0.11%), registering a closing print of 3348.1 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 12 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 9 closed lower for the session. The index components traded a total of 141.64 million units; 12 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 93.61 million shares, while the 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 48.04 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), +$0.87 (2.77%) to $32.30 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$0.92 (2.63%) to $35.93 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), +$1.79 (2.57%) to $71.50 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), +$0.07 (2.31%) to $3.10 on volume of 26.2 million shares; and
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$0.67 (2.07%) to $33.00 on volume of 3.4 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.15 (1.92%) to $7.65 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), -$0.61 (1.17%) to $51.40 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.3 (1.11%) to $26.66 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Brambles Limited (BXB), -$0.09 (0.84%) to $10.64 on volume of 6.7 million shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$0.22 (0.83%) to $26.13 on volume of 5.2 million shares.

Splashing about in the shallow end of the market cap pool (although the stocks in the index are still big enough to be in the All Ords), the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) stayed underwater while the Top20 posted a gain. The Small Ords performed considerably worse than the bigger end of town, falling 9.5 points (0.26%), closing out the session at 3688.7 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 78 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 100 closed lower for the session.

The 193 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 238.31 million units: volume in the 78 gainers totalling 80.05 million shares, with trade totalling 145.27 million units in the index's 100 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Bannerman Resources Limited (BMN), +$0.25 (7.35%) to $3.65 on volume of 547.2 thousand shares;
  • Minara Resources Limited (MRE), +$0.40 (6.96%) to $6.15 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
  • AED Oil Limited (AED), +$0.26 (6.19%) to $4.46 on volume of 345.3 thousand shares;
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), +$0.11 (5.31%) to $2.18 on volume of 1.3 million shares; and
  • Cabcharge Australia Limited (CAB), +$0.48 (4.89%) to $10.30 on volume of 173.8 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.18 (22.73%) to $0.60 on volume of 41 million shares;
  • MFS Limited (MFS), -$0.36 (8.31%) to $3.97 on volume of 11.2 million shares;
  • Commander Communications Limited (CDR), -$0.02 (6.52%) to $0.22 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Compass Resources NL (CMR), -$0.15 (6.2%) to $2.27 on volume of 995.8 thousand shares; and
  • Funtastic Limited (FUN), -$0.04 (5.74%) to $0.58 on volume of 578.1 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 6147.3 -12.2 -0.2 843m
XTL ASX 20 3348.1 3.7 0.11 141.6m
XFL ASX 50 5900 -4 -0.07 371.5m
XTO ASX 100 4912.9 -7.8 -0.16 559.9m
XJO ASX 200 6078.7 -9 -0.15 737.2m
XKO ASX 300 6094 -10.4 -0.17 798.2m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 6232 -41 -0.65 188.5m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3688.7 -9.5 -0.26 238.3m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 12 44 44 178 78 505
Declines 9 51 52 237 100 641
Advancing Volume 93.6m 220.8m 220.8m 316.7m 80m 614.8 million
Declining Volume 48m 311.4m 312.9m 475.8m 145.3m 941 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was pretty much even stevens, with a very slight lead to the duds... the 5 that had an "up" day were just shaded by the remaining 6 which didn't.

The best performing index was the two-stock Information Technology (XIJ), which added 12.9 points (2.42%) to 546.8 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 1.32 million units; however the entire gain was due to 

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), +$0.31 (3.4%) to $9.42 on volume of 887.7 thousand shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 117.1 points (1.25%) to 9451.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 8.6 million units; 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 5.53 million shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.07 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.08 (4.87%) to $1.62 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$0.92 (2.63%) to $35.93 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Healthscope Limited (HSP), +$0.04 (0.75%) to $5.36 on volume of 117 thousand shares; and
  • Symbion Health Limited (SYB), +$0.02 (0.52%) to $3.89 on volume of 985.9 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications (XTJ), which climbed 19.4 points (1.19%) to 1645 points. The 4 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 71.33 million units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 68.83 million shares, while sole declining stock traded 2.5 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Singapore Telecommunications Limited. (SGT), +$0.08 (2.66%) to $3.09 on volume of 10.6 million shares;
  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), +$0.07 (2.31%) to $3.10 on volume of 26.2 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), +$0.06 (1.31%) to $4.64 on volume of 32.1 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 30.6 points (1.57%) to 1918.5 points. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 264.28 million units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 201.46 million units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 55.81 million shares, Anything with Centro in the name got absolutely slaughtered, with some harm by association in other LPTs. 

  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.18 (22.73%) to $0.60 on volume of 41 million shares;
  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.24 (21.62%) to $0.87 on volume of 99.7 million shares;
  • ING Office Fund (IOF), -$0.07 (4.55%) to $1.47 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.15 (3.23%) to $4.49 on volume of 5.7 million shares; and
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.05 (2.17%) to $2.25 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 29.9 points (1.16%) to 2541.5 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 55.21 million units; The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 44.23 million units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 6.08 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • MFS Limited (MFS), -$0.36 (8.31%) to $3.97 on volume of 11.2 million shares;
  • Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG), -$0.24 (4.44%) to $5.16 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Just Group Limited (JST), -$0.19 (4.11%) to $4.43 on volume of 586.6 thousand shares;
  • JB Hi-Fi Limited (JBH), -$0.53 (3.87%) to $13.15 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • David Jones Limited (DJS), -$0.19 (3.7%) to $4.94 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Energy (XEJ), which slid 100.2 points (0.64%) to 15483.4 points as Crude Oil failed again with the bat. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 30.36 million units; The 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 17.83 million units, and 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.53 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Roc Oil Company Limited (ROC), -$0.08 (2.54%) to $3.07 on volume of 585.2 thousand shares;
  • Paladin Energy Limited (PDN), -$0.16 (2.43%) to $6.43 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Worleyparsons Limited (WOR), -$0.86 (1.82%) to $46.40 on volume of 783.2 thousand shares;
  • Santos Limited (STO), -$0.26 (1.78%) to $14.37 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and
  • Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), -$0.03 (1.4%) to $1.76 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 546.8 12.9 2.42 1m
XHJ Healthcare 9451.5 117.1 1.25 9m
XTJ Telecommunications 1645 19.4 1.19 71m
XUJ Utilities 6472.8 50.5 0.79 17m
XSJ Consumer Staples 8653.1 53.2 0.62 22m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 6764.7 -4.2 -0.06 69m
XMJ Materials 14758.6 -22.3 -0.15 125m
XNJ Industrials 6201.7 -20.9 -0.34 72m
XEJ Energy 15483.4 -100.2 -0.64 30m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2541.5 -29.9 -1.16 55m
XPJ Property Trusts 1918.5 -30.6 -1.57 264m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.87 -0.24 -21.62 99.7m
CER Centro Retail 0.60 -0.18 -22.73 41m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.64 0.06 1.31 32.1m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 3.10 0.07 2.31 26.2m
MCW Macquarie Countrywide Trust 1.54 0.03 1.65 20.8m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
AEP Allco Equity Partners Limited. 3.49 0.24 7.38 2.1k
BMN Bannerman Resources Limited 3.65 0.25 7.35 547.2k
NFL Natural Fuel Limited 0.15 0.01 7.14 242.5k
MRE Minara Resources Limited 6.15 0.40 6.96 2.7m
MCP Mcpherson's Limited 3.40 0.21 6.58 133.4k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CER Centro Retail 0.60 -0.18 -22.73 41m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.87 -0.24 -21.62 99.7m
CUV Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Limited 0.43 -0.07 -14 1.6m
NRT Novogen Limited 1.13 -0.12 -9.6 54.7k
MFS MFS Limited 3.97 -0.36 -8.31 11.2m