Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

USRant: Mixed Data, But Fed is Trumps...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Several people connected to the blog today via a link somewhere in the Wall Street Journal online edition (but it was dwarfed by the folks who connected from the site with the tagline "IWL less clowns!" - bit harsh).

Just a note - when I take over the 'green site' we will replace all the clowns... with pirates. It's the least we can do to help slow global warming (scientific studies have found that there is a link between rising global temperatures and the decline in the estimated number of pirates).

Anyhow, the WSJ link originated from a page in the July 11 2007 edition which was all about the then-emerging subprime crisis and its effects on S&P and Moody's and the other hopeless frauds that pretend to rate securities of that type. I am thinking that perhaps somebody sticky-taped a comment with the Rant address in it perhaps. I'll never know, because I will never subscribe to the WSJ because they are followers and hacks, but it I do confess a slight tension in the groinal region at the possibility that someone posted some of my ramblings - or a reference thereto with sufficient tag to get folks interested... on the WSJ site.

Economic News

The Durable Goods report was a relative blowout - 5% versus expectation of 1.5% in the headline number. The difference was caused almost entirely by Boeing who got a bunch of orders for aircraft. As everybody who reads these scribblings ought to know, there is only one number in the whole report which is interesting... non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft.

This segment (NonDefCapEx-xAC) is a decent gauge of capital spending. It rose 4.4%, which is a pretty impressive outcome until you realise that the devil is, once again, in the seasonal adjustment.

Consumer Confidence was slightly stronger than expected (expected 87, actual 87.9). The outcome was only 0.1 points above a 3-year low (set last November). I am frankly shocked that it was as high as it was - and that the proportion of people with positive outlooks increased... the US government must be putting something in the water.

Fed Open Market Operations

The Fed did a 2-day repurchase operation totalling $14 billion, however none of it - ot a single cracker - was in Treasury-backed collateral. It was divided between Agency and Mortgage-backed... $6.35 billion for the Agency traders, and $7.65 billion for those who punt mortgage-backed securities. The Fed is clearly still trying to keep Fannie and Freddie (and MBIA and AMBAC) from facing the well-deserved consequences of shoddy, ill-conceived, poorly executed mismanagement.

Headline Indices

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +96.41 points (0.78%) to 12480.30 points. The index high for the day was 12503.15, while the low was 12346.99.

Major Dow Percentage Gainers-
  • Boeing Co (BA) +3.36 (4.33%) to 80.96 on volume of 6.9 million units
  • JP Morgan Chase (JPM) +1.88 (4.13%) to 47.45 on volume of 52.9 million units
  • AT&T (T) +1.49 (4.09%) to 37.89 on volume of 31.1 million units
  • Alcoa  (AA) +1.19 (3.78%) to 32.66 on volume of 13.9 million units
  • AIG (AIG) +1.98 (3.62%) to 56.73 on volume of 16.7 million units

Major Dow Decliners-

  • Merck (MRK) -1.24 (-2.52%) to 48.01 on volume of 19.6 million units
  • Walt Disney (DIS) -0.57 (-1.94%) to 28.8 on volume of 22.4 million units
  • Coca Cola (KO) -0.86 (-1.45%) to 58.55 on volume of 12.8 million units
  • Hewlett Packard (HPQ) -0.42 (-0.96%) to 43.38 on volume of 20.3 million units
  • Procter Gamble (PG) -0.61 (-0.93%) to 64.68 on volume of 12.4 million units

Highest volume Dow stocks -

  • Citigroup Inc (C) up 0.94% on volume of 79.7 million units
  • Intel Cp (INTC) up 1.03% to 20.5 on volume of 75.7 million units
  • Microsoft Cp (MSFT) down -0.37% on volume of 66.6 million units
  • Jp Morgan Chase C (JPM) up 4.13$ on volume of 52.9 million units
  • Gen Electric Co (GE) up 0.12% on volume of 34.4 million units

The S&P500 Index advanced +8.33 points (0.62%) to 1362.30 points. The index high for the day was 1364.93, while the low was 1350.19.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 8.15 points (0.35%) to 2358.06 points while the Nasdaq100 advanced 2.59 points (0.14%) to 1807.67 points. 

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.62 points (2.23%) to 27.16 points. The CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index advanced 0.26 points (0.8%) to 32.82 points.

NYSE volume totalled 3.46billion units - 2.32 billion shares were traded in advancing stocks. Decliners had total volume of 1.12 billion shares. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 2.1:1, for a one-day AD reading of 1156, advancers numbering 2236 stocks. New highs numbered 24 on the NYSE, wile a total of 63 NYSE listings found their new 52-week low.

NYSE volume totalled 3.99billion units - 2.66 billion shares were traded in advancing stocks. Decliners had total volume of 1.31 billion shares.Advancers outnumbered decliners by 2:1, with a one-day AD reading of 1104, advancers numbering 2213 stocks. New highs numbered 28 on the NYSE, wile a total of 63 NYSE listings found their new 52-week low.

NASDAQ volume: 2.14billion shares. Of that, 1.36 billion shares were traded in advancing stocks. Decliners had total volume of 0.76 billion shares. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 1.4:1, with a one-day AD reading of 445, advancers numbering 1707 while decliners totalled 1262. 43 Nasdaq stocks hit new 52-week highs, and 88 descended to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 12480.30 +96.41 0.78%
S&P500 Index 1362.30 +8.33 0.62%
Nasdaq Composite 2358.06 +8.15 0.35%
Nasdaq100 1807.67 +2.59 0.14%
CBOE Volatility Index 27.16 -0.62 -2.23%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 32.82 +0.26 0.8%
NYSE Total Volume 3.99bn - -
Nasdaq Total Volume 2.14bn - -

Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced as follows -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 922.3 -4.8 -0.52
Silver 1674.0 -1.0 -0.06
Platinum 1709.5 -19.2 -1.11
Palladium 391.75 +0.40 0.1

The Gold Bugs Index lost 1.15 (0.61%) to 187.32 points. Index volume totalled 77.6 million shares. Of the 16 index components, 4 advanced, with volume in advancers totalling 22.2 million units. Of the remaining 12 stocks in the index, every other stock fell, with total volume traded of 55.5 million shares.

Major movers in the same direction as the index:

  • Silver Wheaton Co (SLW), down 0.58 (3.44%) to $16.30 on volume of 3 million shares
  • Royal Gold Inc (RGLD), down 0.9 (2.87%) to $30.45 on volume of 511.5 thousand shares
  • Kinross Gold Cp (KGC), down 0.57 (2.53%) to $21.97 on volume of 6 million shares
  • Silver Stand Res (SSRI), down 0.62 (1.74%) to $34.93 on volume of 546.2 thousand shares

Energy Complex

Energy futures performed as follows -

Energy Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 91.81 +0.82 0.9
Heating Oil 2.5375 +0.0227 0.9
Gasoline RBOB 2.3320 +0.0067 0.29
Natural Gas 7.921 -0.121

The Oil Services Index lost 3.3 (1.25%) to 263.87 points. Index volume totalled 73.8 million shares. Of the 15 index components, 6 advanced, with volume in advancers totalling 27.9 million units. Of the remaining 9 stocks in the index, every other stock fell, with total volume traded of 45.9 million shares.

Major movers in the same direction as the index:

  • Smith Intl Inc (SII), down 5.18 (8.35%) to $56.86 on volume of 11.5 million shares
  • Transocean Inc (RIG), down 2.03 (1.58%) to $126.48 on volume of 5.8 million shares
  • Natl Oilwell Varc (NOV), down 0.98 (1.51%) to $64.11 on volume of 4.9 million shares
  • Weatherford Intl (WFT), down 0.86 (1.32%) to $64.23 on volume of 5 million shares

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 0.1%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) up $+0.04 (0.12%) to $34.76 on volume of 34.45 million units.
  • Citigroup (C) up $+0.26 (0.94%) to $27.91 on volume of 79.67 million units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) up $+0.30 (0.62%) to $49.01 on volume of 20.24 million units.
  • IBM (IBM) up $+1.12 (1.07%) to $106.10 on volume of 6.29 million units.
  • Intel (INTC) up $+0.21 (1.03%) to $20.50 on volume of 75.71 million units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) down $0.04 (0.17%) to $24.06 on volume of 71.12 million units.
  • Google (GOOG) down $5.46 (0.98%) to $550.52 on volume of 6.12 million units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) up $+0.22 (0.67%) to $32.91 on volume of 7.27 million units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) down $0.75 (2.51%) to $29.15 on volume of 9.27 million units.

Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks Index added 1.79 (1.96%) to 91.38 points. Index volume totalled 381.5 million shares. Of the 24 index components, 23 advanced, with volume in advancers totalling 375 million units. Of the remaining 1 stocks in the index, every other stock fell, with total volume traded of 6.5 million shares.

Major movers in the same direction as the index:

  • Washington Mutual (WM), up 1.14 (6.76%) to $18.00 on volume of 36.2 million shares
  • Regions Financial (RF), up 1.14 (4.79%) to $24.93 on volume of 7.1 million shares
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION), up 2.18 (4.44%) to $51.25 on volume of 2.4 million shares
  • Jp Morgan Chase C (JPM), up 1.88 (4.13%) to $47.45 on volume of 52.9 million shares

The Semiconductor Index lost 1.84 (0.51%) to 357.90 points. Index volume totalled 226.8 million shares. Of the 18 index components, 9 advanced, with volume in advancers totalling 154.9 million units. Of the remaining 9 stocks in the index, every other stock fell, with total volume traded of 71.9 million shares.

Major movers in the same direction as the index:

  • Broadcom Corp Cl (BRCM), down 0.53 (2.33%) to $22.26 on volume of 7.9 million shares
  • Sandisk Cp (SNDK), down 0.59 (2.28%) to $25.30 on volume of 19.7 million shares
  • Altera Cp (ALTR), down 0.37 (1.98%) to $18.35 on volume of 8.6 million shares
  • Kl A-tencor Cp (KLAC), down 0.75 (1.74%) to $42.34 on volume of 4.1 million shares

The ChildKiller ("Defence") Index added 2.24 (0.61%) to 370.01 points. Index volume totalled 61.5 million shares. Of the 17 index components, 11 advanced, with volume in advancers totalling 52.7 million units. Of the remaining 6 stocks in the index, every other stock fell, with total volume traded of 8.7 million shares.

Major movers in the same direction as the index:

  • Boeing Co (BA), up 3.36 (4.33%) to $80.96 on volume of 6.9 million shares
  • L-3 Comm Hldgs In (LLL), up 1.88 (1.77%) to $108.24 on volume of 840.3 thousand shares
  • Rockwell Collins (COL), up 1.04 (1.67%) to $63.35 on volume of 2.8 million shares
  • Northrop Grum Hol (NOC), up 0.89 (1.14%) to $79.19 on volume of 2.4 million shares