Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, February 15, 2008

NonRant: Heads Up, Folks...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

OK so here's how I see things as they stand at the moment. The S&P futures are currently at 1340-ish, but well off their overnight lows (by overnight, I mean overnight US time, but it also means during the night Strayan time, and a cross between morning and early afternoon, Froggish time.

So anyhow... the S&P futures, as I was saying, are down about two handfuls (10 points). (Is it "handfuls" or "handsful"? Inquiring minds want to know).

Now as all yáll know, I have said lo these few days that the market is coiling for a bounce. 

Let me caveat that right now.

If the market cannot get through 1360 before it posts two consecutive closes under 1320, then it will drop another 120 S&P points from there (that's right, another 9%). If it then closes two consecutive days below 1200, it will finish the year below 1000.

At the moment, everyone - bears included - expect the annual low to be set sometime in the next two weeks. That to me spells trouble; it shows excessively bullish sentiment amongst folks who are usually sensible bears.

Don't get me wrong - I am not saying it will be 1320 to 1200 in a week and then 1200 to 1000 in another  week; this decline is going to be fought (which is why it will continue... fresh platoons of buyers who will then become stale and throw in the towel at progressively lower levels).

I am not saying that two closes below 1320 is a lock at this stage either.

The next big market catalyst will be (according to the little bird who told me before Harvey Pitt resigned, all those years ago)...

Ban Heli-chopper Bernanke handing in his resignation

Within eight weeks (he has already asked to quit and has been told to wait until the primary season quiets down). Take it to the bank.