Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, February 21, 2008

OzRant: ANZ's Wild Ride Shows Excessive Bullishness...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

There has to be some real skepticism about today; any market in which one of the five largest financial stocks can trade in a 7% range, is not to be trusted. ANZ is suspected of having more exposure than previously thought, to Centro. Well, all the banks have more exposure than they are letting on, to the current dislocation in global credit markets... so why are they still showing any strength whatsoever?

You could say that the pummelling ANZ took up until 2pm (exactly 2pm, as it happens) was overdone, being as it was based on one piece of weakly substantiated supposition about one particular troubled company. The decline during the session for ANZ was almost relentless up to that point... and then someone decided it was worth squeezing.   

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 85.7 points (1.54%), finishing at 5663 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5677 at 10:19 am, while the low for the day was 5583.9 - set at 2:36 pm Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.38 billion units, 2% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1350 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 589 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 811.2 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 475 stocks were dragged below the Plimsoll line, with aggregate volume traded of 402.9 million shares.

Of the 478 All Ordinaries components, 262 rose while 144 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3:1, with 622.88 million shares traded in gainers while 210.1 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 86.9 points (1.58%), closing out the session at 5583.4 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, gaining  39.2 points (1.31%), closing out the session at 3038.9 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 17 index components finished to the upside, and 4 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 250.56 million units; the 17 rising index components had volume amounting to 204.13 million shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 46.43 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Brambles Limited (BXB), +$0.43 (4.61%) to $9.75 on volume of 11.5 million shares;
  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), +$0.12 (3.85%) to $3.24 on volume of 49.9 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.13 (3.32%) to $35.20 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$0.83 (3.03%) to $28.19 on volume of 3.5 million shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), +$0.80 (3%) to $27.50 on volume of 3.2 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.31 (1.71%) to $17.87 on volume of 10.4 million shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$0.12 (0.55%) to $21.88 on volume of 15.7 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), -$0.16 (0.54%) to $29.40 on volume of 15.4 million shares; and
  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$0.02 (0.08%) to $24.60 on volume of 5 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO). The small end of the market had a slightly better day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords performed solidly, in moving up 53 points (1.59%), closing out the session at 3377.4 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 120 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 52 closed lower for the session.

The 192 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 212.39 million units: volume in the 120 gainers totalling 148.04 million shares, with trade totalling 39.14 million units in the index's 52 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • CBH Resources Limited (CBH), +$0.06 (17.14%) to $0.41 on volume of 7.8 million shares;
  • City Pacific Limited (CIY), +$0.32 (12.31%) to $2.92 on volume of 538.4 thousand shares;
  • AED Oil Limited (AED), +$0.20 (11.98%) to $1.87 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.32 (7.94%) to $4.35 on volume of 1.2 million shares; and
  • Timbercorp Limited (TIM), +$0.08 (7.84%) to $1.10 on volume of 933.5 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Iluka Resources Limited (ILU), -$0.65 (14.87%) to $3.72 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
  • Credit Corp Group Limited (CCP), -$0.06 (7.33%) to $0.70 on volume of 901.8 thousand shares;
  • Industrea Limited (IDL), -$0.04 (6.31%) to $0.52 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
  • Skilled Group Limited (SKE), -$0.23 (5.5%) to $3.95 on volume of 95.3 thousand shares; and
  • Fleetwood Corporation Limited (FWD), -$0.47 (5.31%) to $8.38 on volume of 43.5 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5663 85.7 1.54 903.5m
XFL ASX 50 5381.5 77.2 1.46 425.4m
XJO ASX 200 5583.4 86.9 1.58 801.6m
XKO ASX 300 5589.6 85 1.54 861.1m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 5901.1 114.1 1.97 223.2m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3377.4 53 1.59 212.4m
XTL ASX 20 3038.9 39.2 1.31 250.6m
XTO ASX 100 4507.3 68.2 1.54 648.7m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 17 74 75 261 120 589
Declines 4 21 21 144 52 475
Advancing Volume 204.1m 444.8m 446.2m 617.1m 148m 811.2 million
Declining Volume 46.4m 159.4m 159.4m 210.1m 39.1m 402.9 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which added 66.9 points (2.93%) to 2346.6 points. The 27 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 54.97 million units; 22 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 47.55 million shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 2.09 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH), +$1.03 (7.37%) to $15.00 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
  • West Australian Newspapers Holdings Limited (WAN), +$0.60 (5.68%) to $11.17 on volume of 418.3 thousand shares;
  • Invocare Limited (IVC), +$0.31 (5.31%) to $6.15 on volume of 154.7 thousand shares;
  • Macquarie Media Group (MMG), +$0.16 (4.32%) to $3.86 on volume of 913 thousand shares; and
  • Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL), +$0.38 (4.25%) to $9.32 on volume of 2.7 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which gained 216.2 points (2.86%) to 7766.7 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 27.42 million units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 23.68 million shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.73 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Goodman Fielder Limited (GFF), +$0.06 (3.35%) to $1.85 on volume of 4.5 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.13 (3.32%) to $35.20 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • AWB Limited (AWB), +$0.07 (3.07%) to $2.35 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$0.83 (3.03%) to $28.19 on volume of 3.5 million shares; and
  • Metcash Limited (MTS), +$0.08 (2.02%) to $4.05 on volume of 1.5 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Industrials (XNJ), which climbed 140.8 points (2.58%) to 5602.2 points. The 30 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 93.15 million units; 20 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 58.73 million shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 23.02 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Downer EDI Limited (DOW), +$0.65 (13.27%) to $5.55 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
  • Toll Holdings Limited (TOL), +$0.74 (7.88%) to $10.13 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Boart Longyear Limited (BLY), +$0.11 (6.36%) to $1.84 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • Seek Limited (SEK), +$0.30 (4.65%) to $6.75 on volume of 2.4 million shares; and
  • PMP Limited (PMP), +$0.08 (4.63%) to $1.70 on volume of 390.4 thousand shares.

The only declining index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 14 points (0.78%) to 1776.3 points. There is now a Pavlovian response when anybody says 'Centro' in any context whatsoever. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 159.42 million units; The 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 78.57 million units, and 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 59.52 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.03 (5.05%) to $0.47 on volume of 22.9 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), -$0.06 (3.96%) to $1.34 on volume of 8.8 million shares;
  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.05 (3.96%) to $1.09 on volume of 11.4 million shares;
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.03 (2.75%) to $0.89 on volume of 4 million shares; and
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.1 (2.33%) to $4.20 on volume of 7.6 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2346.6 66.9 2.93 55m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7766.7 216.2 2.86 27m
XNJ Industrials 5602.2 140.8 2.58 93m
XTJ Telecommunications 1692.8 38.6 2.33 134m
XIJ Information Technology 506.1 11.5 2.33 3m
XMJ Materials 15009.8 266.2 1.81 134m
XUJ Utilities 5958.5 88.7 1.51 21m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 5591.3 72.6 1.32 106m
XHJ Healthcare 8892.7 107.4 1.22 12m
XEJ Energy 14907.4 72.7 0.49 57m
XPJ Property Trusts 1776.3 -14 -0.78 159m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.80 0.11 2.35 65.5m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 3.24 0.12 3.85 49.9m
DRT DB RREEF Trust 1.69 0.01 0.3 27.7m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.47 -0.03 -5.05 22.9m
OXR Oxiana Limited 3.56 0.12 3.49 17.9m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CBH CBH Resources Limited 0.41 0.06 17.14 7.8m
SRV Servcorp Limited 4.50 0.55 13.92 51.1k
DOW Downer Edi Limited 5.55 0.65 13.27 2.7m
CIY City Pacific Limited 2.92 0.32 12.31 538.4k
AED AED Oil Limited 1.87 0.20 11.98 3.3m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.15 -0.04 -19.44 234.5k
ILU Iluka Resources Limited 3.72 -0.65 -14.87 3.2m
STO Santos Limited 12.91 -1.43 -9.97 9.7m
CST Cellestis Limited 2.40 -0.26 -9.77 92.7k
CCV Cash Converters International 0.30 -0.03 -7.69 697k