Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, February 04, 2008

OzRant: Banks Drag Big End Down... Tiddlers Rocket.

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Man o man... do you ever tire of watching nuffie suicide charges? Seriously - it's enough to make you think that there is a class of investor that is infected with some mind-altering protozoa that makes them systematically zig when they ought to be zagging. The Charge of the Dumb Brigade happened again this morning - within 45 minutes of the open the All Ords was up over 168 points, and within 10 minutes of the close it had given back all but 5 of those points.

So what is it that makes people do such systematically silly things? Some sort of Pavlovian conditioning, which makes them buy at market any time the US goes up (and/or any Monday generally)? Is it the media's fault (hardly - the media may be a deplorable place to get investment advice, but Kochy is not sat next to each nuffnuff with a gun to their heads).

Anyhow - although I can't be bothered sticky-taping together a chart to show this, the short bias worked like a charm. This was mentioned in Friday's OzRant as being instituted as soon as the US made a CCI divergence... which it did on Friday night Oz time. That meant the positional short in the SPI was opened at the first %RMA overbought thereafter (which was at 10:45 this morning, Oz time with the SPI at 5981).

The why of the latest nuffie-skinning doesn't matter - Allco and its effect on the banks, or whateverrrrr - and the fact that it happened primarily in the Top 20 and the big caps shows that "nuffnuff" does not necessarily man "small account individual trader".

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 39.4 points (0.67%), finishing at 5921.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 6055.6 at 10:43 am, while the low for the day was 5886.6 - set 7 minutes before the close. The close is a bit of a dodgy number, methinks - the 4 p.m. print was 5899.3, yet the matchout print was 5921.7... someone painted the tape at the matchout.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.71 billion units, 8% above its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1415 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 627 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 1.02 billion units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 507 stocks were dragged below the gain line, with aggregate volume traded of 417.1 million shares.

Of the 478 All Ordinaries components, 266 rose while 161 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.7:1, with 455.99 million shares traded in gainers while 269.16 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 24.5 points (0.42%), closing out the session at 5867.4 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 5921.70 39.40 (0.7%)
ASX 50 5693.80 1.20 (0.0%)
ASX 200 5867.40 24.50 (0.4%)
ASX 300 5872.40 26.60 (0.5%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 6079.90 90.90 (1.5%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 3466.10 73.50 (2.2%)
ASX 20 3231.30 -9.20 (0.3%)
ASX 100 4749.10 11.80 (0.2%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 9.2 points (0.28%), closing out the session at 3231.3 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 7 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 14 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 139.68 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 43.85 million shares, while the 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 95.83 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.21 (2.8%) to $7.71 on volume of 4.5 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.01 (2.7%) to $38.41 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), +$0.70 (1.82%) to $39.25 on volume of 17 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway Limited. (SUN), +$0.23 (1.44%) to $16.20 on volume of 4.2 million shares; and
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$0.30 (1.02%) to $29.70 on volume of 3.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, you could almost guess the 5 worst-performed within the ASX20 - just line up the banks - but you might not have got the order of demerit right:

  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.05 (4.01%) to $49.07 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), -$1.32 (3.73%) to $34.08 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), -$0.56 (1.91%) to $28.79 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$0.48 (1.66%) to $28.43 on volume of 2.1 million shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$0.42 (1.56%) to $26.47 on volume of 6.5 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The big guys eked out a weak gain, while the minnows surged (as did the MidCaps). The Small Ords had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 73.5 points (2.17%), closing out the session at 3466.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 130 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 51 closed lower for the session.

The 192 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 275.12 million units: volume in the 130 gainers totalling 227.57 million shares, with trade totalling 40.41 million units in the index's 51 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Arrow Energy NL (AOE), +$0.44 (23.58%) to $2.28 on volume of 17.5 million shares;
  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.59 (17.25%) to $4.01 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), +$0.04 (13.73%) to $0.29 on volume of 29.5 million shares;
  • Silex Systems Limited (SLX), +$0.61 (13.56%) to $5.11 on volume of 427.5 thousand shares; and
  • Bradken Limited (BKN), +$0.74 (11%) to $7.47 on volume of 4.4 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Customers Limited (CUS), -$0.02 (12.5%) to $0.11 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • APN/UKA European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.05 (5.36%) to $0.80 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC), -$0.47 (4.2%) to $10.72 on volume of 250.5 thousand shares;
  • AED Oil Limited (AED), -$0.09 (4.02%) to $2.15 on volume of 1.6 million shares; and
  • Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (KCN), -$0.18 (4.01%) to $4.31 on volume of 279.6 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5921.7 39.4 0.67 780.3m
XFL ASX 50 5693.8 1.2 0.02 262.9m
XJO ASX 200 5867.4 24.5 0.42 648.9m
XKO ASX 300 5872.4 26.6 0.46 732.9m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 6079.9 90.9 1.52 194.9m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3466.1 73.5 2.17 275.1m
XTL ASX 20 3231.3 -9.2 -0.28 139.7m
XTO ASX 100 4749.1 11.8 0.25 457.8m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 7 50 50 265 130 627
Declines 14 43 43 161 51 507
Advancing Volume 43.8m 191.4m 191.4m 445.5m 227.6m 1.02 billion
Declining Volume 95.8m 213.1m 213.1m 269.2m 40.4m 417.1 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 7 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 4 lost ground.

The best performing index was Energy (XEJ), which added 362.5 points (2.57%) to 14476.8 points. The 18 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 59.84 million units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 50.2 million shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 9.64 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Arrow Energy NL (AOE), +$0.44 (23.58%) to $2.28 on volume of 17.5 million shares;
  • Queensland Gas Company Limited (QGC), +$0.59 (17.25%) to $4.01 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • Paladin Energy Limited (PDN), +$0.35 (7.4%) to $5.08 on volume of 4.3 million shares;
  • Energy Resources Of Australia Limited (ERA), +$1.36 (6.87%) to $21.16 on volume of 713.1 thousand shares; and
  • Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), +$0.09 (6%) to $1.59 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which gained 163.8 points (2.03%) to 8227.4 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 27.6 million units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 21.29 million shares. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.01 (2.7%) to $38.41 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
  • Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), +$0.25 (2.62%) to $9.80 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • AWB Limited (AWB), +$0.05 (2.43%) to $2.11 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • ABB Grain Limited (ABB), +$0.15 (1.69%) to $9.00 on volume of 553.5 thousand shares; and
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$0.30 (1.02%) to $29.70 on volume of 3.7 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Materials (XMJ), which climbed 270.1 points (1.86%) to 14767.6 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 182.84 million units; 31 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 149.54 million shares, while the 9 decliners had volume traded totalling 31.32 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Sundance Resources Limited (SDL), +$0.04 (13.73%) to $0.29 on volume of 29.5 million shares;
  • Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), +$0.65 (10%) to $7.15 on volume of 10.5 million shares;
  • Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP), +$0.88 (6.29%) to $14.87 on volume of 252.8 thousand shares;
  • Kagara Zinc Limited (KZL), +$0.23 (5.75%) to $4.23 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
  • Great Southern Limited (GTP), +$0.10 (5.35%) to $1.87 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ) (i.e., mostly Banks), which dipped 95.9 points (1.48%) to 6366.8 points. The 28 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 72.26 million units; The 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 49.39 million units, and 12 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.86 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Allco Finance Group Limited (AFG), -$0.31 (9.39%) to $2.99 on volume of 4.6 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$2.05 (4.01%) to $49.07 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), -$1.32 (3.73%) to $34.08 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
  • IOOF Holdings Limited (IFL), -$0.22 (3.06%) to $6.97 on volume of 115.8 thousand shares; and
  • Challenger Financial Services Group Limited (CGF), -$0.11 (3.04%) to $3.51 on volume of 3.6 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Telecommunications (XTJ), which slid 10.4 points (0.67%) to 1545.4 points. The 4 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 48.99 million units; The 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 44.1 million units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 1.16 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Telstra (Installment Receipts) (TLSCA), -$0.03 (1.05%) to $2.82 on volume of 15.4 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), -$0.03 (0.68%) to $4.38 on volume of 28.7 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 58.2 points (0.62%) to 9375.6 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 9.32 million units; The 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 7.13 million units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 2.2 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC), -$0.47 (4.2%) to $10.72 on volume of 250.5 thousand shares;
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), -$0.05 (3.23%) to $1.50 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL), -$0.33 (2.01%) to $16.12 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Ansell Limited (ANN), -$0.21 (1.77%) to $11.68 on volume of 503.4 thousand shares; and
  • Healthscope Limited (HSP), -$0.06 (1.14%) to $5.21 on volume of 293.6 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XEJ Energy 14476.8 362.5 2.57 60m
XSJ Consumer Staples 8227.4 163.8 2.03 28m
XMJ Materials 14767.6 270.1 1.86 183m
XPJ Property Trusts 1902.3 21.4 1.14 118m
XNJ Industrials 6109.1 55.7 0.92 70m
XIJ Information Technology 482.6 1.4 0.29 2m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2437.2 4.8 0.2 30m
XUJ Utilities 6006.6 -1.7 -0.03 28m
XHJ Healthcare 9375.6 -58.2 -0.62 9m
XTJ Telecommunications 1545.4 -10.4 -0.67 49m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 6366.8 -95.9 -1.48 72m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
SDL Sundance Resources Limited 0.29 0.04 13.73 29.5m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.38 -0.03 -0.68 28.7m
OXR Oxiana Limited 3.23 0.13 4.19 26.3m
AOE Arrow Energy NL 2.28 0.44 23.58 17.5m
BHP BHP Billiton Limited 39.25 0.70 1.82 17m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
AOE Arrow Energy NL 2.28 0.44 23.58 17.5m
QGC Queensland Gas Company Limited 4.01 0.59 17.25 5.3m
SDL Sundance Resources Limited 0.29 0.04 13.73 29.5m
SLX Silex Systems Limited 5.11 0.61 13.56 427.5k
PVE Po Valley Energy Limited 1.70 0.20 13.33 38.5k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CUS Customers Limited 0.11 -0.02 -12.5 1.2m
PSD Psivida Limited 0.08 -0.01 -9.41 655.7k
AFG Allco Finance Group Limited 2.99 -0.31 -9.39 4.6m
PFG Prime Financial Group Limited 0.48 -0.04 -7.69 113.8k
MBP Metabolic Pharmaceuticals Limited 0.04 0.00 -7.5 300k