Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

OzRant: Chalk Up A Win (But Just)...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

As always, the best time of day to 'fade' the Australian market, is at the open. Last night SPISpyers were sadly let down by your beloved GT (who could not get the proper SPISpy system to work and had to send out a vanilla e-mail, WAY later).

Anyway, the alert e-mail sent at 10:40 Oz time had this as its salient line:

Short at 11:15 a.m. Sydney time, irrespective of price, with a 10-point target.

As it turned out, that was a annoying. The SPI dipped nicely just after 11:15 a.m., but it just failed to reach the target, falling 2 points shy. Anyone trading two units was supposed to take one off at that point and set a stop on the other which would result in zero overall if the stop was hit. And such a stop was hit before the target was reached (which waasn't until 2:25 in the afternoon); folks trading a single lot had to endure hours underwater in order to get away with what ought to have been a much easier trade (had I been able to get the e-mail out within a couple of minutes of the ASX open).

A win is a win, though, and for once it's the little guy doing the winning. And not to be too crass about it, but 10 SPI points is $250 on a $6250 intraday initial margin... i.e., a 4% gain for the session. But it was a tooth-grinder nonetheless. A SPISpy subscription would have paid for itself for a month, and left enough on the table for a slap up luncheon at Mrs Miggins' Pie Shoppe.

Still and all - folks who have this habit of piling in at the open, then getting kicked in the nads for the rest of the session, must get sick of it after a while, surely.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced pretty handily, rising 46 points (0.81%), finishing at 5745.8 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5767.1 at 10:14 am (GT ought to have had the SPISpy e-mail ready to send at 10:15...), while the low for the day was 5705.7 - the vestige of yesterday's close; the traded low was 5727 at 2:25 p.m., 40 points below the high but only 11 points below the 11:15 a.m. print - gives you a clue as to the difficulty of getting that 10-point target .

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.4 billion units, 4% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1413 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 599 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 582.3 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 543 stocks were dragged for a loss, with aggregate volume traded of 658.7 million shares.

Notice that? Advance decline numbers were positive, but advance-decline volume was not. that dear Reader, is a sign from Hathor.

Of the 475 All Ordinaries components, 237 rose while 177 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 434.54 million shares traded in gainers while 495.91 million shares traded in the day's losers. Another sign on the volume front.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 44.5 points (0.79%), closing out the session at 5666.1 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 5745.80 46.00 (0.8%)
ASX 50 5472.10 41.50 (0.8%)
ASX 200 5666.10 44.50 (0.8%)
ASX 300 5672.10 44.20 (0.8%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 5962.30 52.00 (0.9%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 3399.10 27.90 (0.8%)
ASX 20 3115.40 33.30 (1.1%)
ASX 100 4578.60 35.50 (0.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 33.3 points (1.08%), closing out the session at 3115.4 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 16 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 5 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 172.07 million units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 123.83 million shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 48.23 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), +$3.27 (5.9%) to $58.73 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.86 (4.75%) to $41.00 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$1.31 (4.52%) to $30.32 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$0.90 (3.09%) to $30.02 on volume of 7.2 million shares; and
  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$1.10 (3%) to $37.71 on volume of 2.8 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), -$3.07 (10.71%) to $25.60 on volume of 19.6 million shares;
  • Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.12 (2.2%) to $5.34 on volume of 11 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), -$1.77 (1.31%) to $133.66 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$0.32 (0.82%) to $38.73 on volume of 14.2 million shares; and
  • Suncorp-Metway Limited. (SUN), -$0.07 (0.46%) to $15.21 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market slightly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 27.9 points (0.83%), closing out the session at 3399.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 105 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 72 closed lower for the session.

The 190 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 207.75 million units: volume in the 105 gainers totalling 112.16 million shares, with trade totalling 84.08 million units in the index's 72 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.03 (9.8%) to $0.28 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.18 (9.63%) to $2.05 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Mirabela Nickel Limited (MBN), +$0.50 (9.38%) to $5.83 on volume of 108.1 thousand shares;
  • Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH), +$0.13 (7.96%) to $1.70 on volume of 4.1 million shares; and
  • Becton Property Group (BEC), +$0.17 (7.14%) to $2.55 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Australian Education Trust (AEU), -$0.2 (16.67%) to $1.00 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
  • Flexigroup Limited (FXL), -$0.15 (13.06%) to $0.97 on volume of 370.9 thousand shares;
  • Commander Communications Limited (CDR), -$0.02 (9.38%) to $0.15 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • Boom Logistics Limited (BOL), -$0.06 (6.59%) to $0.85 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • Ridley Corporation Limited (RIC), -$0.07 (5.81%) to $1.14 on volume of 311.6 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5745.8 46 0.81 3420.7m
XFL ASX 50 5472.1 41.5 0.76 1203m
XJO ASX 200 5666.1 44.5 0.79 2957.6m
XKO ASX 300 5672.1 44.2 0.79 3212.9m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 5962.3 52 0.88 1210.6m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 3399.1 27.9 0.83 799.3m
XTL ASX 20 3115.4 33.3 1.08 679m
XTO ASX 100 4578.6 35.5 0.78 2413.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 16 65 123 236 105 599
Declines 5 32 66 177 72 543
Advancing Volume 123.8m 299.5m 375.2m 434.5m 112.2m 582.3 million
Declining Volume 48.2m 389m 442.1m 495.9m 84.1m 658.7 million
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which added 260.2 points (3.24%) to 8282.2 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 39.25 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 24.26 million shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 14.99 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • AWB Limited (AWB), +$0.11 (4.89%) to $2.36 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.86 (4.75%) to $41.00 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
  • Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$1.31 (4.52%) to $30.32 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • Metcash Limited (MTS), +$0.10 (2.49%) to $4.12 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
  • Goodman Fielder Limited (GFF), +$0.05 (2.49%) to $1.86 on volume of 5.5 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Property Trusts (XPJ), which gained 28.1 points (1.64%) to 1737.6 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 109.7 million units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 59.4 million shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 39.31 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.06 (6.86%) to $0.94 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), +$0.07 (5%) to $1.37 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.02 (3.23%) to $0.64 on volume of 9.3 million shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.06 (2.93%) to $2.11 on volume of 3.2 million shares; and
  • ING Office Fund (IOF), +$0.04 (2.73%) to $1.32 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Healthcare (XHJ), which climbed 144 points (1.58%) to 9248.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 21.9 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.98 million shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 10.92 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), +$1.10 (3%) to $37.71 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.04 (2.61%) to $1.38 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC), +$0.23 (2.17%) to $10.85 on volume of 484.4 thousand shares;
  • Ansell Limited (ANN), +$0.25 (2.05%) to $12.47 on volume of 881.7 thousand shares; and
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.06 (1.36%) to $4.46 on volume of 1.9 million shares.

The only declining index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 117.7 points (0.78%) to 14997.4 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 131.87 million units; The 24 decliners had volume traded totalling 80.8 million units, and 17 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 45.58 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Bluescope Steel Limited (BSL), -$0.73 (6.24%) to $10.97 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
  • Zinifex Limited (ZFX), -$0.47 (4.48%) to $10.03 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
  • Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP), -$0.63 (3.75%) to $16.17 on volume of 291 thousand shares;
  • Iluka Resources Limited (ILU), -$0.12 (3.37%) to $3.44 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.06 (3.19%) to $1.82 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XSJ Consumer Staples 8282.2 260.2 3.24 39m
XPJ Property Trusts 1737.6 28.1 1.64 110m
XHJ Healthcare 9248.5 144 1.58 22m
XTJ Telecommunications 1726.8 24.6 1.45 69m
XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts 5745 78.2 1.38 120m
XIJ Information Technology 521.1 6.4 1.24 5m
XUJ Utilities 5808.2 61.4 1.07 26m
XNJ Industrials 5698.8 40.4 0.71 72m
XEJ Energy 14933.4 44.3 0.3 47m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2356.5 2.7 0.11 204m
XMJ Materials 14997.4 -117.7 -0.78 132m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ABS ABC Learning Centres Limited 2.15 -1.59 -42.51 155.5m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.88 0.05 1.04 30.8m
AFG Allco Finance Group Limited 0.90 -0.21 -18.92 30.2m
TLSCA Telstra (Installment Receipts) 3.32 0.07 2.15 27m
MCW Macquarie Countrywide Trust 1.39 -0.11 -7.36 20.5m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
FZN Fone Zone Group Limited 0.60 0.10 19 421k
MBP Metabolic Pharmaceuticals Limited 0.04 0.00 11.43 77k
RAT Rubicon America Trust 0.28 0.03 9.8 1.8m
BBP Babcock & Brown Power 2.05 0.18 9.63 5.1m
MBN Mirabela Nickel Limited 5.83 0.50 9.38 108.1k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ABS ABC Learning Centres Limited 2.15 -1.59 -42.51 155.5m
AFG Allco Finance Group Limited 0.90 -0.21 -18.92 30.2m
AEU Australian Education Trust 1.00 -0.20 -16.67 3.4m
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.13 -0.03 -16.67 560.5k
NFL Natural Fuel Limited 0.21 -0.04 -16 2.9m