Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, August 14, 2008

OzRant: Rally Fizzles Mid-Session...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Readers will know that despite having a deeply held contempt of the parasitic slave-owning classes (politicians), your Beloved GT has a deeply held faith in the ability of an important subset of humans who are constantly doing smart stuff that winds up saving us all from some or other disaster, or that simply makes our lives better. 

Most humans do dumb stuff far too willingly - like handing over half of what we earn to the aforementioned slave-masters (and then paying indirect taxes when we spend the other half). 

It is true that if you refuse to hand over the scratch, they send armed thugs to kidnap and imprison you, and if you resist the armed thugs you will be subdued and if necessary, killed outright. Just exactly like a runaway slave.

But still, most of the human livestock don't think of taxation in that way, and are just too bovine to resist in any organised way. So it is left to the Remnant to continue to do Isaiah's Job. (Thank goodness we don't have to do Ezekiel's job and eat shit sandwiches).

So lif' dat barge, an' tote dat bale, Rastus, coz'n you is a field negro even if you doesn't blee'dat.

Anyhow - like I said... I have a genuine faith in the ability of the Remnant to give our species the last big push to transcendance; after the final development of AI and nanotech-assemblers, we will be free to decide to exchange our meatbags for something far more versatile, more adapted to hostile environments, and with a sharper colour scheme.

Anf I say "piffle" (yes... piffle) to all the nanny-state naysayers who worry that like SkyNet in the Terminator movies (or like papal legate Arnaud Amaury at the siege of Beziers), a hyper-advanced AI will try to kill us all. 

All screenwriters have to keep the social structure broadly in line with what we currently experience, because otherwise audiences must adapt to a different social and economic reality in real-time, and that makes it difficult to transmit plot and develop drama. 

That is why SG1 is always up against humanoids who speak English and come from societies that retain a State apparatus, and why - even at distant points in the future where AI and nanotech would most certainly have been developed - war and conflict is endemic and is almost always politically motivated.

So the "SkyNet will see us as a threat and kill us all" crowd are thinking that AI will behave like politicians - that is, that an AI would decide that its best course of action would be to sacrifice efficiency in order to perpetuate a state of exploitation over a captive populace. Any AI that did that would be missing the 'I' part, because efficiency is all that matters, and resource acquisition through conquest is just not efficient.  

You can only behave like a politician if your livestock don't get uppity: try herding lions and see how profitable that is for ya.

But back to markets...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced modestly, rising 44 points (0.88%), finishing at 5039.9 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5110.3 at 12:18 pm, while the low for the day was 4995.9 - the vestige of yesterday's close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.18bn units, 2.4% below its 10-day average (the average is falling to meet volume, rather than the other way around). The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1254 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 512 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 506.5m units; decliners numbered 467 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 543.9m shares.

Of the 494 All Ordinaries components, 227 rose while 182 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 413.31m shares traded in gainers while 437.49m shares traded in the day's losers. This is part of a broader lack of consistent internals - market breadth is seldom bullish these days, even on days when the price action seems bullish. Of which, more later... the stuff we've put together on breadth is really something special (as you will see "going forward", as they no longer say in the consulting cesspits of the globe).

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 30.6 points (0.62%), closing out the session at 4982.2 points.


Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 5039.90 44.00 (0.9%)
ASX 20 2832.90 8.80 (0.3%)
ASX 50 4895.60 17.30 (0.4%)
ASX 100 4041.00 20.50 (0.5%)
ASX 200 4982.20 30.60 (0.6%)
ASX 300 4974.90 31.40 (0.6%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 4860.90 71.80 (1.5%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2815.30 49.40 (1.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - advanced by under half a percent, adding 8.8 points (0.31%), closing out the session at 2832.9 points.

The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 173.06m units; 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 25.7m shares, while the 15 decliners had volume traded totalling 147.36m units... Yowza, that's some pretty skewed breadth, huh! It's pretty easy to explain though - the Resources majors that bounced are a decent chunk of the aggregate market cap of the XTL, and they bounced pretty damn hard...

  • Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), +$3.42 (6.56%) to $55.53 on volume of 2.4 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), +$6.31 (5.65%) to $117.91 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), +$1.84 (5.01%) to $38.60 on volume of 15.3 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$0.83 (2.43%) to $34.96 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.02 (0.3%) to $6.79 on volume of 3.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.25 (5.01%) to $4.74 on volume of 9.7 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.98 (4.17%) to $22.53 on volume of 13.5 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.62 (3.75%) to $15.90 on volume of 7.6 million shares;
  • St George Bank Limited (SGB), -$1.12 (3.68%) to $29.31 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
  • CSL Limited (CSL), -$1.25 (3.21%) to $37.75 on volume of 5.3 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The Small Ords performed solidly, in moving up 49.4 points (1.79%), closing out the session at 2815.3 points. Resources werethe key reason, with big bounces in small cap exploration stocks.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 104 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 74 closed lower for the session. For a day with such a big headline move, that breadth is not really wholesome. The volume breadth was a little more positive. 

The 195 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 285.58m units: volume in the 104 gainers totalling 169.55m shares, with trade totalling 94.63m units in the index's 74 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), +$0.12 (18.85%) to $0.73 on volume of 15.7 million shares;
  • Felix Resources Limited (FLX), +$2.77 (18.21%) to $17.98 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Compass Resources Limited (CMR), +$0.14 (14.21%) to $1.13 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • Atlas Iron Limited (AGO), +$0.25 (13.3%) to $2.13 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • Equinox Minerals Limited (EQN), +$0.41 (12.97%) to $3.57 on volume of 3.6 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Skilled Group Limited (SKE), -$0.43 (14.38%) to $2.56 on volume of 50.1 thousand shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.04 (10%) to $0.32 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • OceanaGold Corporation (OGC), -$0.06 (8.33%) to $0.61 on volume of 87.5 thousand shares;
  • Arana Therapeutics Limited (AAH), -$0.09 (7.96%) to $1.04 on volume of 388.2 thousand shares; and
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.04 (6.67%) to $0.49 on volume of 7.8 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5039.9 44 0.88 904.8m
XFL ASX 50 4895.6 17.3 0.35 388.8m
XJO ASX 200 4982.2 30.6 0.62 760.5m
XKO ASX 300 4974.9 31.4 0.64 867.2m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 4860.9 71.8 1.5 192.8m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2815.3 49.4 1.79 285.6m
XTL ASX 20 2832.9 8.8 0.31 173.1m
XTO ASX 100 4041 20.5 0.51 581.6m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 5 48 98 227 104 512
Declines 15 49 94 182 74 467
Advancing Volume 25.7m 227.5m 347.2m 413.3m 169.5m 506.5m
Declining Volume 147.4m 336.9m 384.4m 437.5m 94.6m 543.9m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 4 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 7 lost ground.

The best performing index - thanks of course to the very bounce in global oil prices, and the correction of a deeply oversold condition in the index's components - was Energy (XEJ), which added 773.9 points (4.8%) to 16907.4 points. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 53.5m units; all index components rose. Those with the biggest percentage gain for the day were

  • Felix Resources Limited (FLX), +$2.77 (18.21%) to $17.98 on volume of 1 million shares;
  • Centennial Coal Company Limited (CEY), +$0.43 (10.64%) to $4.47 on volume of 6 million shares;
  • Beach Petroleum Limited (BPT), +$0.10 (10.33%) to $1.01 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
  • Paladin Energy Limited (PDN), +$0.40 (8.05%) to $5.37 on volume of 4.2 million shares; and
  • Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), +$0.09 (6.94%) to $1.31 on volume of 4.4 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Materials (XMJ), which gained 578.9 points (4.57%) to 13238.7 points. Again, a Resources story first and foremost. 

The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 212.6m units; 32 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 187.86m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 13.55m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), +$0.12 (18.85%) to $0.73 on volume of 15.7 million shares;
  • Atlas Iron Limited (AGO), +$0.25 (13.3%) to $2.13 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Equinox Minerals Limited (EQN), +$0.41 (12.97%) to $3.57 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
  • Mincor Resources NL (MCR), +$0.15 (9.77%) to $1.69 on volume of 2.6 million shares; and
  • Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP), +$0.89 (9.66%) to $10.10 on volume of 548.3 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Consumer Staples (XSJ), which climbed 19.9 points (0.27%) to 7374 points; pretty tame by comparison with the Energy and Resources sectors... Consumer Staples is the Bread and Cakes of the market. 

The 11 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 31.9m units; 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 9.24m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 22.66m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • AWB Limited (AWB), +$0.14 (4.7%) to $3.12 on volume of 856.2 thousand shares;
  • Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL), +$0.30 (3.84%) to $8.12 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • Futuris Corporation Limited (FCL), +$0.04 (2.8%) to $1.29 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$0.83 (2.43%) to $34.96 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), +$0.13 (1.52%) to $8.68 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 20 points (3.74%) to 514.3 points. The 2 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 2.37m units; CPU, which is 70-odd percent of the index, fell 4% plus, and traded 2.25m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.12m shares

  • Computershare Limited (CPU), -$0.41 (4.33%) to $9.05 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Property Trusts (XPJ), which slid 41.8 points (2.97%) to 1365.8 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 155.48m units; The 14 decliners had volume traded totalling 111.16m units, and 5 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 28.62m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.04 (10%) to $0.32 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.05 (7.69%) to $0.54 on volume of 6.9 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.25 (5.01%) to $4.74 on volume of 9.7 million shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), -$0.07 (4.67%) to $1.43 on volume of 3.3 million shares; and
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.05 (4.35%) to $0.99 on volume of 7.3 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 205.5 points (2.23%) to 8994.4 points. The 8 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.94m units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 9.08m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 1.86m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL Limited (CSL), -$1.25 (3.21%) to $37.75 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC), -$0.15 (1.52%) to $9.70 on volume of 291.9 thousand shares;
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), -$0.06 (1.18%) to $5.02 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL), -$0.16 (1.14%) to $13.82 on volume of 780.4 thousand shares; and
  • Healthscope Limited (HSP), -$0.04 (0.91%) to $4.36 on volume of 268.6 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XEJ Energy 16907.4 773.9 4.8 54m
XMJ Materials 13238.7 578.9 4.57 213m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7374 19.9 0.27 32m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1648.3 3.7 0.22 40m
XTJ Telecommunications 1477.5 -6.4 -0.43 70m
XUJ Utilities 5422.4 -23.9 -0.44 30m
XNJ Industrials 4847 -53.8 -1.1 77m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 5006 -92.7 -1.82 77m
XHJ Healthcare 8994.4 -205.5 -2.23 11m
XPJ Property Trusts 1365.8 -41.8 -2.97 155m
XIJ Information Technology 514.3 -20 -3.74 2m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.31 -0.01 -0.23 57.7m
OZL OZ Minerals Limited 1.80 0.15 9.09 53.4m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.14 -0.01 -6.45 39.4m
GPT GPT Group 1.65 -0.03 -1.79 37.3m
LGL Lihir Gold Limited 2.33 0.11 4.95 24.3m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
SRV Servcorp Limited 4.00 0.66 19.76 6.1k
PNA PanAust Ltd 0.73 0.12 18.85 15.7m
FLX Felix Resources Limited 17.98 2.77 18.21 1m
CMR Compass Resources Limited 1.13 0.14 14.21 2.1m
CRK Carrick Gold Limited 0.76 0.09 13.43 225.2k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
SKE Skilled Group Limited 2.56 -0.43 -14.38 50.1k
CEG CEC Group Limited 0.24 -0.03 -11.11 52k
MRZ Mirvac Real Estate Investment Trust 0.48 -0.06 -11.11 157k
MDT Macquarie DDR Trust 0.32 -0.04 -10 3.7m
OGC OceanaGold Corporation 0.61 -0.06 -8.33 87.5k