Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
For those who are interested in nifty little web-gadgetry (how's that for a bad pitch?) I've provided an example link (in the forums) to the new Watch List applet to which subscribers get access (amongst other things like this nifty Index Workbench). The subscriber versions of each of these things is significantly feature-enhanced relative to what you see in the examples on the Forums.
It staggers me when I stop to think about the things we do that involved a negative expected payoff - that is, we do a thing anticipating all the while that we will go backwards as a result.
These things can take various forms - from speeding (zero to slight negative expected payoff) to becoming addicted to nicotine (the delivery mechanism causes slow painful death).
But it's the things we don't do to avoid a negative-expected-payoff that are the easiest to do (because they involve not doing something that would forestall the negative payoff).
For example: the scripts that collect, manipulate, calculate and tabulate the USRant data, and generate the objective material. They are not precisely to my liking, and I spend more about fifteen minutes of each Rant preparation amending the output in order to make it better structured.
Now the open question is this: how long would it take to amend the scripts that prepare the USRant template, so that I no longer had to amend the output?
I think - conservatively, allowing time for correcting of the stuffups that I would introduce - maybe 90 minutes. I would recoup the time-outlay in about 2 weeks - and avoid the mind-numbing palaver of cutting chunks out of paragraphs and moving pieces from one subpara to another.
So why don't I just sit down and amend the bloody script? For the moment I delude myself that I have more important things to do - that the next time used (80 minutes) would be better spend refining some aspect of the subscription site. That's a piece of self-delusion akin to those that we all practice every day.
Economic News
- Durable Goods Orders for July rose 1.3%, easily outstripping the consensus expectation for growth of 0.2%. The key number in this report - as I have said time and again over the last seven years - is non-defense capex ex aircraft, which rose 2.5%.
- Crude Oil Inventories fell by 177K - the shysters that run the pits didn't need a fake number this week, because it wasn't expiration week.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase today - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $5.5bn, with $3.881bn in Treasury-backed collateral, undertaken at a weighted average rate of 2.013%.
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +89.64 points (0.79%) to 11502.51 points. The index high for the day was 11554.46 just before 1 p.m., , while the low was 11381.77 just before 10 a.m. NY time. The journalistic putative reason for the rise: the sharp increase in Durable Goods orders mentioned above. Sheesh - you've got to be a mindless bull to buy stocks based on numbers that bear little to no relationship to output, profits, income, employment, investment or GDP. Still, it's not my money - and the higher it goes, the more we can take off them on the next short leg.
Total volume traded in the Dow components was a paltry 481.1m units. 25 Dow component issues rose, trading a total of 390.22m units; 4 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 87.51m shares.
The S&P500 Index advanced +10.15 points (0.8%) to 1281.66 points. Total volume traded in the index was 2.64bn units. Within the index, 410 issues rose, which resulted in upside volume totalling 2.11bn units; 82 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 477.47m units.
The biggest gainers in the S&P members were again the Mortgage Mania Monsters -
- Federal Home Loan Mtg. (FRE) +0.78 (19.6%) to $4.75 on volume of 154.61m shares;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.86 (15.3%) to $6.48 on volume of 118.29m shares;
- Tesoro Petroleum Co. (TSO) +1.84 (11.1%) to $18.41 on volume of 12.6m shares;
- Lennar Corp. (LEN) +1.16 (10.5%) to $12.2 on volume of 10.5m shares; and
- KB Home (KBH) +1.76 (10%) to $19.35 on volume of 6.92m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 20.49 points (0.87%) to 2382.46 while the Nasdaq100 gained 13.98 points (0.74%) to 1900.30 points. Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was 631.75m units. Within the index, 78 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 463.98m units; 20 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 167.77m units.
Major Nasdaq100 gainers -
- Focus Media Holding (FMCN) +2.32 (8%) to $31.22 on volume of 3.52m shares;
- NetApp (NTAP) +1.47 (6.1%) to $25.55 on volume of 12.15m shares;
- Level 3 Communications (LVLT) +0.14 (4.4%) to $3.29 on volume of 17.61m shares;
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +2.05 (4.2%) to $51.05 on volume of 2.63m shares; and
- Joy Global (JOYG) +2.72 (4%) to $71.26 on volume of 1.41m shares.
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.68 points (3.32%) to 19.81 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.66 points (2.75%) to 23.37 points.
A Total of 3468 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 3.49 billion shares. A total of 2583 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.75 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 797 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 710 million shares. 19 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 65 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
Over on the Nasdaq 2968 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was a lousy 1.52 billion shares. A total of 1804 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.09 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1026 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 410 mllion shares. 41 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 87 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11502.51 | +89.64 | 0.79% |
| S&P500 Index | 1281.66 | +10.15 | 0.8% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2382.46 | +20.49 | 0.87% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1900.30 | +13.98 | 0.74% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 19.81 | -0.68 | -3.32% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 23.37 | -0.66 | -2.75% |
Dow Darlings
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.63 (2.2%) to $29.65 on volume of 38.9m units
- American Express (AXP) +0.77 (2%) to $38.82 on volume of 8.3m units
- AT&T (T) +0.58 (1.9%) to $31.2 on volume of 18.7m units
- AIG (AIG) +0.36 (1.8%) to $20 on volume of 37.4m units
- Boeing (BA) +1.06 (1.7%) to $64.52 on volume of 3.9m units
- Pfizer (PFE) -0.2 (1%) to $19.08 on volume of 36.2m units
- General Electric (GE) -0.05 (0.2%) to $28.22 on volume of 33.4m units
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -0.06 (0.1%) to $46.8 on volume of 13.1m units
- McDonalds (MCD) -0.05 (0.1%) to $62.08 on volume of 4.8m units
Most Traded Dow stocks
- Citigroup (C) +0.28 (1.6%) to $18.12 on volume of 56.2m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.63 (2.2%) to $29.65 on volume of 38.9m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.26 (1.1%) to $23.41 on volume of 38.3m units
- AIG (AIG) +0.36 (1.8%) to $20 on volume of 37.4m units
- Pfizer (PFE) --0.2 (1%) to $19.08 on volume of 36.2m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures advanced modestly -
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 828.8 | 4.6 | 0.56 |
| Silver | 13.49 | -0.085 | -0.63 |
| Palladium | 286.95 | 1.25 | 0.44 |
| Platinum | 1445.3 | 24.2 | 1.7 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 60.67m units. Within the index, 15 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 49.96m units; 1 stock fell, and it turned over 10.71m units.
Today the index rose by 3.69 points (2.5%) to 151.18 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Barrick Gold (ABX) +1.19 (3.5%) to $35.5 on volume of 7.37m shares;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) +2.56 (2.9%) to $91.09 on volume of 5.35m shares;
- Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.26 (2.9%) to $9.36 on volume of 4.9m shares;
- RandGold Resources (GOLD) +1.2 (2.8%) to $44.37 on volume of 0.66m shares; and
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU) +0.66 (2.5%) to $27.17 on volume of 0.74m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures continued their post-manipulation recovery -
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 118.35 | 2.08 | 1.79 |
| Heating Oil | 3.2875 | 0.0531 | 1.64 |
| Natural Gas | 8.52 | 0.133 | 1.59 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 3.0749 | 0.1052 | 3.54 |
| Ethanol | 2.354 | 0.006 | 0.26 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 63.71m units. All 15 sector index members rose, helping propel the index upwards by 3.23 points (1.08%) to 303.32 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Tidewater (TDW) +1.61 (2.8%) to $59.71 on volume of 0.9m shares;
- Global Industries (GLBL) +0.24 (2.5%) to $9.8 on volume of 4.25m shares;
- Oceaneering International (OII) +1.34 (2.2%) to $63.29 on volume of 1.43m shares;
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +1.45 (1.9%) to $76.68 on volume of 4.06m shares; and
- BJ Services (BJS) +0.46 (1.7%) to $28.02 on volume of 3.91m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 4.3% - that number is hugely biased due to the Toxic Twins (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) -0.05 (0.18%) to $28.22 on volume of 33.36m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.28 (1.57%) to $18.12 on volume of 56.15m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.29 (0.49%) to $59.29 on volume of 11.59m units.
- IBM (IBM) +0.88 (0.72%) to $123.38 on volume of 5.54m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.26 (1.12%) to $23.41 on volume of 38.3m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.26 (1.08%) to $24.37 on volume of 28.16m units.
- Google (GOOG) -5.58 (1.18%) to $468.58 on volume of 4.36m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.86 (15.3%) to $6.48 on volume of 118.29m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.78 (19.65%) to $4.75 on volume of 154.61m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 329.54m units. Within the index, 21 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 268.43m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 61.1m units.
Today the index rose by 0.95 points (1.53%) to 63.21 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.83 (5.8%) to $15.1 on volume of 10.76m shares;
- National City (NCC) +0.25 (5.3%) to $4.94 on volume of 9.59m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) +0.56 (4%) to $14.55 on volume of 45.17m shares;
- New M&I Corporation (MI) +0.5 (3.6%) to $14.58 on volume of 4.22m shares; and
- Suntrust Banks (STI) +0.88 (2.2%) to $40.01 on volume of 4.54m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 173.62m units. Within the index, 15 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 138.22m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 35.4m units.
Today the index rose by 1.82 points (0.51%) to 358.8 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Sandisk (SNDK) +0.43 (3%) to $14.83 on volume of 6.69m shares;
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.14 (2.4%) to $6.07 on volume of 14.53m shares;
- Altera (ALTR) +0.34 (1.5%) to $22.98 on volume of 5.03m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.18 (1.4%) to $13.08 on volume of 2.79m shares; and
- Xilinx (XLNX) +0.31 (1.2%) to $26.47 on volume of 4.17m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 52.36m units. Within the index, 12 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 15.45m units; 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 36.92m units.
Today the index rose by 1.67 points (0.45%) to 370.67 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Gencorp (GY) +0.26 (3.6%) to $7.47 on volume of 0.21m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +1.22 (2.4%) to $52.76 on volume of 0.33m shares;
- Boeing (BA) +1.06 (1.7%) to $64.52 on volume of 3.88m shares;
- ITT Corporation (ITT) +0.72 (1.1%) to $64.82 on volume of 0.69m shares; and
- Raytheon (RTN) +0.65 (1.1%) to $60.35 on volume of 1.57m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures continued t omill around in the low 77s on the USDX - one more spike upwards and it's a short (more accurately, we will initiate a long position in Euro).
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 77.125 | -0.22 | -0.28 |
| Euro FX | 1.4695 | 0.0061 | 0.42 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.9106 | 0.0012 | 0.13 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.8553 | 0.0016 | 0.19 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9539 | 0.0006 | 0.06 |
| Japanese Yen | 0.913 | -0.0002 | -0.02 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.6989 | 0.0036 | 0.52 |
