Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, August 04, 2008

USRant: Full of Rant-y Goodness...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Aaaah... my lovely steaming pile of USRant has returned at last. Rather than bore you with banal prefatory witticisms, I'll just make one observation, then move on.

Sometimes the best thing you can do is hire a private investigator; the sort of stuff they can find out about folks is just amazing.

For example - if someone whose work includes young children has so much as looked sideways at a student, at any time in their farthest past, there is a very good chance that this sort of information will be unearthed by a diligent PI.

Often those who feel that they or their child was wronged, will greatly appreciate the chance to air their grievances in a new forum (e.g., at the offender's current workplace). If the person concerned changed their legal name just after the brouhaha, and moved to another town, the odds that it will be misinterpreted by their current employer must be quite high. Not that it's any skin off my nose... nothing to do with me, you understand.

And so it goes - what an interesting planet you humans live on!

Economic News

All data released today exceeded expectations - 

  • Personal Income was expected to fall by 0.2%, but it rose by 0.1%. Sure it did - falling nonfarm payrolls and rising unemployment, but somehow take-home pay goes up. Yeah right.
  • Personal Expenditure also defied expectations: consensus expectations were for a rise of 0.4$ and the actual result was 0.6%. Because you know... if spending fellas a result of the winding down of the one-off stimulus from the tax rebates, hat would be bad. 
  • Factory Orders rose by 1.7% when market consensus expected a rise of 0.7%. (Does the US still actually have factories? Or were they counting outsourced production as well?) .
Now I am always skeptical of anything produced by governments - especially their statistics; economic statistics are the first thing that governments start to fiddle with (although you could persuade me that the first fiddling is always with the currency).
Fed Open Market Operations


The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase today - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $8bn, entirely in Treasury-backed collateral, at a weighted average rate of 2.120% (odd - that's a 12 basis point  premium to the Fed Funds rate...).

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 42.17 points (0.37%) to 11284.15 points. The index high for the day was 11382.17 just after 2:45 p.m. NY time, while the low was 11221.53, set at almost exactly 11 a.m. NY time.

Total volume traded in the 30 Dow components was 637.36m units. 11 issues rose, with upside volume of 178.81m units; 19 issues fell, and downside volume amounted to 458.56m units. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) -3.12 (3.9%) to $76.6 on volume of 36.15m shares;
  • Alcoa (AA) -1.1 (3.4%) to $31.04 on volume of 13.04m shares;
  • Du Pont (DD) -1.15 (2.7%) to $42.16 on volume of 5.37m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.71 (2.1%) to $32.62 on volume of 58.9m shares; and
  • Chevron (CVX) -1.51 (1.8%) to $82.8 on volume of 15.25m shares.

The S&P500 Index lost 11.3 points (0.9%) to 1249.01 points. the failure to hold above 1250 is moderately ominous. Total volume traded in the index was 3347.63m units. Within the index, 196 issues rose and upside volume was 1.16b units; 293 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 2.08b units. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Range Resources Corp. (RRC) -6.41 (13.1%) to $42.6 on volume of 7.39m shares;
  • Massey Energy Company (MEE) -9.46 (12.6%) to $65.91 on volume of 7.92m shares;
  • Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld (FCX) -10.96 (12%) to $80.35 on volume of 27.46m shares;
  • IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) -10.76 (11.2%) to $85.44 on volume of 3.53m shares; and
  • Manitowoc Co. (MTW) -2.65 (10.3%) to $23.03 on volume of 6.67m shares.

A Total of 3450 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4 billion shares. A total of 1105 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.31 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 2259 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 2.66 billion shares. 33 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 138 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 25.4 points (1.1%) to 2285.56 points, and the Nasdaq100 lost 21.72 points (1.19%) to 1804.84 points - and it never dipped below 1800. Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was 901.09m units; 36 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 266.06m units, but 62 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 584.92m units.

The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Joy Global (JOYG) -7.06 (9.8%) to $64.68 on volume of 3.34m shares;
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) -2.89 (9.6%) to $27.14 on volume of 6.95m shares;
  • Foster Wheeler (FWLT) -5.33 (9.5%) to $50.75 on volume of 2.96m shares;
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) -2.75 (8.4%) to $29.95 on volume of 9.94m shares; and
  • Hansen Natural (HANS) -1.32 (5.8%) to $21.4 on volume of 4.37m shares.

A total of 2991 tickers traded today on the Nasdaq; total Nasdaq volume was 1.91 billion shares. A total of 961 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.53 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1911 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.32 billion shares. 51 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 139 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

The CBOE Volatility Index advanced +0.95 points (4.21%) to 23.52 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index advanced +1.64 points (6.31%) to 27.61 points.


Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11284.15 -42.17 -0.37%
S&P500 Index 1249.01 -11.30 -0.9%
Nasdaq Composite 2285.56 -25.40 -1.1%
Nasdaq100 1804.84 -21.72 -1.19%
CBOE Volatility Index 23.52 +0.95 4.21%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 27.61 +1.64 6.31%

Major Advancers in the Dow were

  • Pfizer (PFE) +0.38 (2%) to $18.98 on volume of 42.5m units
  • Coca-Cola (KO) +0.76 (1.4%) to $53.9 on volume of 11.1m units
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) +0.87 (1.3%) to $65.82 on volume of 12.6m units
  • McDonalds (MCD) +0.78 (1.3%) to $60.55 on volume of 6m units
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) +0.88 (1.3%) to $68.98 on volume of 13.3m units

Major Decliners in the Dow were

  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) -3.12 (3.9%) to $76.6 on volume of 36.1m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -1.1 (3.4%) to $31.04 on volume of 13m units
  • Du Pont (DD) -1.15 (2.7%) to $42.16 on volume of 5.4m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.71 (2.1%) to $32.62 on volume of 58.9m units
  • Chevron (CVX) -1.51 (1.8%) to $82.8 on volume of 15.3m units

Most Traded Dow stocks were

  • Citigroup (C) --0.04 (0.2%) to $18.83 on volume of 86.2m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) --0.71 (2.1%) to $32.62 on volume of 58.9m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) --0.16 (0.6%) to $25.28 on volume of 55.8m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) +0.38 (2%) to $18.98 on volume of 42.5m units
  • Intel (INTC) +0.17 (0.8%) to $22.52 on volume of 41.2m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures got pretty solidly smacked, with Platinum again leading the downward charge (and Gold closing below $900)

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 897.9 -15 -1.64
Silver 16.96 -0.56 -3.2
Palladium 353 -18.1 -4.88
Platinum 1567 -88.3 -5.33

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; every component fell, and total volume traded in the index was 105.87m units.

Today the index fell by 7.66 points (4.71%) to 154.88 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -10.96 (12%) to $80.35 on volume of 27.46m shares;
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) -0.91 (7.4%) to $11.41 on volume of 10.83m shares;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -0.74 (7.2%) to $9.54 on volume of 3m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) -0.68 (5.4%) to $11.86 on volume of 3.5m shares; and
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) -1.45 (4.9%) to $28.38 on volume of 1m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures slid further - perhaps on hope that Olmert's resignation in Israel means that there will be no Bombs Over Isfahan...the usual thing that politicians do when they are under pressure or investigation, is to bomb the crap out of someone... Reagan had Grenada, Bush I had Iraq I, Clinton had Bosnia and Sudan, and Bush II and Sharon had Iraq.

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 120.86 -4.24 -3.39
Heating Oil 3.3495 -0.0873 -2.54
Natural Gas 8.725 -0.664 -7.07
Gasoline RBOB 2.9924 -0.0919 -2.98
Ethanol 2.245 -0.145 -6.07

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; every stock in the index fell today, and total volume traded in the index was 108.11m units.

Today the index fell by 17.46 points (5.68%) to 289.97 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Noble Corp (NE) -5.13 (9.7%) to $47.51 on volume of 8.29m shares;
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -6.4 (8.1%) to $73.07 on volume of 8.03m shares;
  • Smith International (SII) -5.64 (7.5%) to $69.64 on volume of 4.57m shares;
  • Global Industries (GLBL) -0.87 (7.1%) to $11.42 on volume of 3.05m shares; and
  • Cameron International (CAM) -3.28 (6.7%) to $45.68 on volume of 3.78m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 0.5%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.04 (0.14%) to $28.17 on volume of 35.95m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.04 (0.21%) to $18.83 on volume of 86.25m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.68 (1.18%) to $58.43 on volume of 13.77m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +0.92 (0.73%) to $127.56 on volume of 5.79m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.17 (0.76%) to $22.52 on volume of 41.21m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0 (0%) to $21.99 on volume of 49.37m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -4.86 (1.04%) to $463.00 on volume of 2.47m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.01 (0.08%) to $11.83 on volume of 27.5m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.46 (5.76%) to $7.52 on volume of 36.07m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 520.87m units. Within the index, 5 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 23.15m units; 19 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 497.72m units.

Today the index fell by 0.96 points (1.43%) to 66.26 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Wachovia (WB) -1.87 (9.9%) to $17.11 on volume of 99.31m shares;
  • Washington Mutual (WM) -0.45 (8.5%) to $4.87 on volume of 77.86m shares;
  • National City (NCC) -0.23 (4.6%) to $4.82 on volume of 11.7m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) -0.48 (4.4%) to $10.49 on volume of 10.84m shares; and
  • Capital One Financial (COF) -0.96 (2.3%) to $40.55 on volume of 7.22m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 172.3m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 141.64m units; 4 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 30.65m units.

Today the index rose by 1.51 points (0.45%) to 339.69 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.41 (5.5%) to $7.81 on volume of 1.71m shares;
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.2 (4.7%) to $4.48 on volume of 15.75m shares;
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) +0.34 (1.9%) to $17.87 on volume of 20.32m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) +0.08 (1.7%) to $4.75 on volume of 10.29m shares; and
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) +0.28 (1.4%) to $20.64 on volume of 2.44m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 61.37m units. Within the index, 7 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 11.22m units; 10 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 50.15m units.

Today the index fell by 1.43 points (0.39%) to 361.7 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) -2.07 (5.2%) to $37.86 on volume of 1.94m shares;
  • ITT Corporation (ITT) -1.28 (1.9%) to $65.87 on volume of 0.81m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) -0.74 (1.5%) to $48.24 on volume of 0.21m shares;
  • Boeing (BA) -0.65 (1%) to $61.36 on volume of 6.05m shares; and
  • General Dynamics (GD) -0.51 (0.6%) to $89.07 on volume of 1.32m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures show a weakening bounce in teh US Dollar - those who are prepared to bet that the Fed is actualyl prepared to tighten this week are going to get their heads handed to them. The Fed would prefer rampant Zimbabwean style inflation and currency depreciation, to the alternative (a complete devastation in the housing market)

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 73.665 0.065 0.09
Euro FX 1.5554 0.0042 0.27
Swiss Franc 0.9546 0.0026 0.27
Australian Dollar 0.9248 -0.0002 -0.02
Canadian Dollar 0.9637 -0.0092 -0.95
Japanese Yen 0.9257 -0.0052 -0.56
New Zealand Dollar 0.725 0.0031 0.43