Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Well, now... where to begin? First, Michael Malakellis' doppelganger (sorry Mick, but Sarkozy does look a little bit like you) visited Russia and apparently offered Medvedev enough of a bribe for the Russian softie to agree to a cease fire. (It's easy to agree to a ceasefire when your forces have already achieved all their objectives... and plus we can bank on Sakashvili doing something stupid - he's an Ivy Leaguer).
In any case, the equity markets were somewhat spooked in the afternoon of the US session; the selloff was pretty unremitting although nowhere near as bad as it might have been. Energy and Precious Metals markets remain under selling pressure - although rates of decline have slowed across the board and Gold Stocks went up today despite a fall in the price of the metal itself. (My guess - the early takers in gold stocks will have their nerves tested tomorrow, but so long as they can afford to hold they will do well).
I'm running a tad behind-hand today; I have been wrestling with Flex datagrids and XMLLists all afternoon (trying to build my own chained ComboBox widget as part of sexing up the subscription site for its impending return). I have it done in Flash, but Flex is better for the job and I can't get the stupid thing to port across. Anyhow - as I say - running behind a little, so I have only done a very cursory spellcheck and proof-read (I almost put 'poof-read' there).
Which brings me to a gripe (briefly). Why can't one set the inline spell checker to highlight errors with more than just a stupid wiggly red underline? I would like for errors to be 18-point with a bright green background - so that they stand out like the proverbial bulldog's dangly-bits. Why do software designers not offer that as a customisable setting? Why do they hate our way of life?
Economic News
Not a lot - the June Trade Balance came in at a deficit of $56.8bn, which was a little better than expected (consensus expectations were for -$61bill); and
The Treasury Budget Deficit rose to $102.8bn, considerably higher than what the market was expecting. Still, the long end of the bond market managed a rally, if my data does not deceive me. Looks like a risk repricing to me - folks getting antsy even though the Dwarf Prince had his PR moment with Medvedev.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations:
- a 28 Day repurchase totalling $20bn; and
- a 2 Days repurchase totalling $5.5bn, entirely in Treasury-backed collateral at a weighted average rate of 1.958%.
Headline Indices
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 139.88 points (1.19%) to 11642.47 points. The index high for the day was 11782.35 sert just after the open, while the low was 11601.52 (call it 11600ish) about half an hour before the close of play.
Total volume traded in the 30 Dow stocks was 726.43m units. 8 Dow component issues rose, turning over volume of 204.68m units. All of the other 22 Dow components fell, with aggregate declining volume of 521.75m units.
The S&P500 Index lost 15.72 points (1.2%) to 1289.59 points. Total volume traded in the index was 3.5bn shares. Within the index, 128 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 921.38m units; 366 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 2.57bn units.
The biggest percentage decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Constellation Energy Group (CEG) -11.79 (16.1%) to $61.25 on volume of 19.39m shares;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) -4.7 (14.3%) to $28.1 on volume of 6.66m shares;
- Wachovia Corp. (New) (WB) -2.21 (12.1%) to $16 on volume of 85.2m shares;
- Lehman Bros. (LEH) -2.23 (12.1%) to $16.21 on volume of 30.58m shares; and
- Lennar Corp. (LEN) -1.51 (11.7%) to $11.42 on volume of 7.44m shares.
Breadth-wise, 3471 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was just over 4.75 billion shares. A total of 1124 NYSE-traded stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.32 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 2265 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 3.33 billion shares. 44 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 97 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 9.34 points (0.38%) to 2430.61 points and the Nasdaq100 lost 0.16 points (0.01% - call it zero-ish) to 1941.07 points.
Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was 889.27m units. 39 of the 100 index components gained and advancing volume was 457.07m units; 60 issues fell, with aggregate declining volume of 432.21m units.
Today the index fell by 0.16 points (0.01%) to 1941.07 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) -3.58 (7.2%) to $46.3 on volume of 6.1m shares;
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -0.1 (6.8%) to $1.37 on volume of 64.62m shares;
- Leap Wireless International (LEAP) -2.56 (5.6%) to $42.78 on volume of 0.84m shares;
- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) -6.32 (5.5%) to $108.35 on volume of 2.87m shares; and
- Monster Worldwide (MNST) -0.72 (3.5%) to $19.89 on volume of 2.99m shares.
Over on the Nasdaq 2998 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.06 billion shares. A total of 1217 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 980 million shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1646 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.04 billion shares. 73 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 103 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index advanced +1.07 points (5.32%) to 21.19 points while the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index advanced +0.36 points (1.49%) to 24.55 points.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11642.47 | -139.88 | -1.19% |
| S&P500 Index | 1289.59 | -15.72 | -1.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2430.61 | -9.34 | -0.38% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1941.07 | -0.16 | -0.01% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 21.19 | +1.07 | 5.32% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 24.55 | +0.36 | 1.49% |
Of the 30 Dow components, 8 gained ground for the day, with total upside volume of 204.68m units. 22 Dow components suffered losses for the day, with total volume in declining index components of 521.77m units.
Dow Gainers
- General Motors (GM) +0.34 (3.2%) to $11.1 on volume of 31m units
- Caterpillar (CAT) +1.01 (1.4%) to $71.81 on volume of 5.6m units
- Procter & Gamble (PG) +0.91 (1.3%) to $70.34 on volume of 13.8m units
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.69 (1.2%) to $59.25 on volume of 20.2m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.22 (0.8%) to $28.12 on volume of 62.4m units
Dow Decliners
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -3.97 (9.5%) to $37.92 on volume of 65m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) -2.25 (6.7%) to $31.13 on volume of 58.9m units
- AIG (AIG) -1.62 (6.6%) to $22.85 on volume of 43.5m units
- Citigroup (C) -1.28 (6.5%) to $18.54 on volume of 82.8m units
- McDonalds (MCD) -2.01 (3%) to $63.94 on volume of 12.8m units
Most Traded Dow stocks -
- Citigroup (C) --1.28 (6.5%) to $18.54 on volume of 82.8m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) --3.97 (9.5%) to $37.92 on volume of 65m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.22 (0.8%) to $28.12 on volume of 62.4m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) --2.25 (6.7%) to $31.13 on volume of 58.9m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.14 (0.6%) to $24.52 on volume of 51.6m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures are still under pressure - we await a very specific setup which is almost baked in to the data even now, but which has not yet materialised (and trust me, I'm not giving anything away by saying that the thing we seek is there to be seen... anyone else who has found the same data regularity should be congratulated for being a market mentat like your beloved GT)-
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 819.4 | -4.9 | -0.59 |
| Silver | 14.61 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| Palladium | 311.5 | -10.5 | -3.26 |
| Platinum | 1481.7 | -53.8 | -3.5 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 128.69m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 128.69m units. That in itself is moderately interesting, no? Gold down, but Gold shares up? (Hint: it's actually a sign that Gold has not bottomed today... there are still too many small-scale bulls).
Today the index rose by 4.24 points (3.1%) to 140.84 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU) +1.71 (6.7%) to $27.41 on volume of 3.54m shares;
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +3.01 (6.6%) to $48.84 on volume of 5.43m shares;
- GoldCorp (GG) +1.52 (5.1%) to $31.43 on volume of 14.66m shares;
- Yamana Gold (AUY) +0.48 (4.9%) to $10.27 on volume of 16.21m shares; and
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +0.08 (4.6%) to $1.82 on volume of 17.46m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures also continue weak; the intermarket analysis that forms a crucial part of our timing mechanism is flashing bells and whistling whistles, but there is still a shoe to drop... just an intraday lurch downwards which ought to have happened already, which will see a bunch of small-lot traders selling at market on a spike down during a relatively thin period of the day. On the day that this happens, it is a lay down misere that Oil will go from -2.5% to -3% intraday, to a gain of 1% to 2% by the close.
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 113.35 | -1.1 | -0.96 |
| Heating Oil | 3.085 | -0.0345 | -1.11 |
| Natural Gas | 8.373 | 0.024 | 0.29 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 2.8524 | -0.0142 | -0.5 |
| Ethanol | 2.1 | 0.037 | 1.79 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 82.19m units. Within the index, 3 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 15.44m units; 12 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 66.75m units.
Today the index fell by 1.8 points (0.63%) to 282.19 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Smith International (SII) -1.25 (1.8%) to $69.94 on volume of 2.93m shares;
- Cameron International (CAM) -0.8 (1.7%) to $45.45 on volume of 5.31m shares;
- Baker Hughes (BHI) -1.09 (1.4%) to $75.64 on volume of 4.73m shares;
- Tidewater (TDW) -0.79 (1.4%) to $54.9 on volume of 0.91m shares; and
- BJ Services (BJS) -0.25 (1%) to $26.03 on volume of 7.29m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 1.7%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) -0.21 (0.7%) to $29.74 on volume of 37.61m units.
- Citigroup (C) -1.28 (6.46%) to $18.54 on volume of 82.8m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.69 (1.18%) to $59.25 on volume of 20.18m units.
- IBM (IBM) -1.38 (1.09%) to $125.22 on volume of 6.91m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.14 (0.57%) to $24.52 on volume of 51.62m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.12 (0.49%) to $24.50 on volume of 40.93m units.
- Google (GOOG) +1.77 (0.35%) to $502.61 on volume of 2.74m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.38 (4.52%) to $8.02 on volume of 38.1m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.23 (4.11%) to $5.37 on volume of 33.36m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 563.48m units. Within the index, none of the stocks rose and none were unchanged; 24 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 563.48m units.
Today the index fell by 4.54 points (6.44%) to 65.93 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) -4.7 (14.3%) to $28.1 on volume of 6.66m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) -2.21 (12.1%) to $16 on volume of 85.2m shares;
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -3.97 (9.5%) to $37.92 on volume of 64.98m shares;
- Washington Mutual (WM) -0.44 (9.3%) to $4.3 on volume of 60.02m shares; and
- Regions Financial (RF) -0.92 (9.2%) to $9.06 on volume of 18.06m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 229.16m units. Within the index, 12 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 172.61m units; 6 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 56.55m units.
Today the index rose by 1.14 points (0.3%) to 375.28 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.28 (3.2%) to $8.97 on volume of 1.66m shares;
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.1 (2%) to $5.21 on volume of 30.8m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.23 (1.8%) to $12.7 on volume of 2.89m shares;
- Xilinx (XLNX) +0.4 (1.5%) to $27.55 on volume of 8.23m shares; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) +0.26 (1%) to $26.4 on volume of 14.11m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 68.58m units. Within the index, 10 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 17.09m units; 6 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 51.25m units.
Today the index rose by 2.05 points (0.54%) to 378.27 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +1.45 (4.8%) to $31.35 on volume of 1.44m shares;
- Alliant Tech (ATK) +1.89 (1.8%) to $105.71 on volume of 0.4m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +0.73 (1.4%) to $52.3 on volume of 0.4m shares;
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) +1.51 (1.3%) to $114.39 on volume of 4.13m shares; and
- L-3 Holdings (LLL) +1.17 (1.1%) to $103.57 on volume of 0.74m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures are at an interesting juncture; the USD ought to be softening significantly more than it has done thus far, but perhaps the unease in the Caucasus is increasing risk premia attached to Euro-activity in the minds of traders. No matter - the USD is on its way to zero before you and I hit normal retirement age.
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 76.29 | -0.025 | -0.03 |
| Euro FX | 1.4888 | -0.0013 | -0.09 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.9194 | -0.0022 | -0.24 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.8729 | -0.0062 | -0.71 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9412 | 0.0056 | 0.6 |
| Japanese Yen | 0.915 | 0.0042 | 0.46 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.696 | 0.0003 | 0.04 |
