Stupid American Blogger Spell-Screwer-Upper thinks that manoeuvre is spelt without an 'o'. What's next for this nincompoop race? Why not give up entirely and just spell it minoovah? We stole the word from the Frogs for good reason, and we ought to pay some small heed to its provenance. But I guess you can't expect much from a nation so culturally backward that it thinks that Jack Kerouac wrote poetry and that John 'Songbird' McCain is a hero for breaking a plane and getting caught by the civilians he was trying to kill.
But let's move on...
How very annoying, that I wrote just yesterday an impassioned declaration that rejected - for the time being - a manoeuvre-warfare approach to our Crude entry. The violence of action that characterises the battle style perfected by the Waffen SS and copied (badly) by the US Marines Recon element, was to give way to a more staid "holding of the fort", even when obvious manoeuvre possibilities presented themselves.
Take today for example. With Crude up at just under $117 (and therefore with a $6000 profit in three sessions for each $2000 at risk), all warning bells were ringing: a CCI divergence, a short-term overbought %RMA, and an upcoming report on US oil inventories.
If we had been manning a forward fire base, trip flares would have been lighting up the sky, showing evidence of enemy within the wire.
And yet, we simply held. Like the defenders of Jerusalem, we viewed this as a investiture by an opposing force that did not have sufficient logistical capability to endure its own siege.
So I watched Crude move very predictably down, down, down after the 'better than expected' crude inventory build.
Not so much as a hint of doubt creased the brow, Dearest Reader. Crude reversed from $116.95 all the way down to $112.57, and it did it quickly (in about an hour and a half).
And then, it began to move back up. It moved back up with the slow, pained, deliberate movements of a heavyweight who has taken a real thrashing. But by the end of the session it was on its feet and its opponent was dumbfounded. It closed back above $116 - less than $1 below its high. Our position was back to a profit of just over 200% of margin, and everybody except us was surprised.
As mentioned in the opening Ode to My Own Genius (otherwise known in Rant jargon as a toot-toot), Crude Oil inventories showed a much bigger rise than was expected. Expectations (near as you can get a handle on them) were for a build of 800k barrels: the outcome was over 9.39 million. But honestly - big whoop. That is less than a day's consumption.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase today - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $ 2.75bn, with $1.711bn in Treasury-backed collateral, with a weighted average rate of 1.929%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 68.88 points (0.61%) to 11417.43 points - an amazing outcome considering that the index had retreated to unchangedat 3:30 p.m. NY time. The index high for the day was 11454.15 at about 11:15, while the low was 11290.58 just after 10 am. NY time.
Total volume traded in the Dow was relatively weak at 631.34m units. Within the index, 17 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 399.23m units; 13 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 232.11m units.
The S&P500 Index advanced 7.85 points (0.62%) to 1274.54 points. Again, the index was flat (actually it was slightly down for the day) at 3:30 p.m. NY time. Total volume traded in the index was 3.52bn units. Within the index, 277 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 1.82bn units; 212 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 1.55bn units.
Th biggest percentage gainers in the index were as follows:
- SLM Corporation (SLM) +1.33 (10.2%) to $14.33 on volume of 18.99m shares;
- Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld (FCX) +6.39 (7.5%) to $91.09 on volume of 15.61m shares;
- XTO Energy Inc. (XTO) +3.48 (7.4%) to $50.28 on volume of 20.57m shares;
- National Oilwell VarcoInc. (NOV) +4.74 (6.8%) to $74.65 on volume of 10.57m shares; and
- CIT Group (CIT) +0.58 (6.5%) to $9.47 on volume of 7.09m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 4.72 points (0.2%) to 2389.08 points and the Nasdaq100 advanced 4.34 points (0.23%) to 1913.02 points. The total volume traded in the index was 758.39m units. Within the index, 42 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 271.53m units; 54 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 468.38m units.
Today the index rose by 4.34 points (0.23%) to 1913.02 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Hansen Natural (HANS) +2.15 (7.7%) to $30.21 on volume of 3.26m shares;
- Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +3.4 (7.4%) to $49.58 on volume of 4.01m shares;
- NVIDIA (NVDA) +0.66 (4.9%) to $14.08 on volume of 28.41m shares;
- Leap Wireless International (LEAP) +1.87 (4.6%) to $42.66 on volume of 0.88m shares; and
- Focus Media Holding (FMCN) +1.25 (4.4%) to $29.8 on volume of 3.47m shares.
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.86 points (4.04%) to 20.42 while the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.65 (2.68%) to 23.56 points.
A Total of 3477 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.6bn shares. A total of 1799 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.55 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 1569 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.85 billion shares. 12 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 118 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
Over on the Nasdaq 2971 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was weak at just 1.72 billion shares. A total of 1382 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 890million shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1453 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 790million shares. 31 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 102 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
|Major Market Statistics|
|Dow Jones Industrial Average||11417.43||+68.88||0.61%|
|CBOE Volatility Index||20.42||-0.86||-4.04%|
|CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index||23.56||-0.65||-2.68%|
- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) +2.47 (5.7%) to $46.16 on volume of 32.9m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +1.21 (4.3%) to $29.29 on volume of 62.6m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) +1.42 (4%) to $37 on volume of 38.6m units
- AIG (AIG) +0.48 (2.4%) to $20.8 on volume of 37.9m units
- General Motors (GM) +0.21 (2.1%) to $10.16 on volume of 15.7m units
- Merck (MRK) -0.31 (0.9%) to $34.94 on volume of 9.2m units
- Intel (INTC) -0.2 (0.8%) to $23.39 on volume of 52.9m units
- Procter & Gamble (PG) -0.42 (0.6%) to $70.3 on volume of 10.6m units
- Du Pont (DD) -0.21 (0.5%) to $44.02 on volume of 4.2m units
- AT&T (T) -0.11 (0.4%) to $30.69 on volume of 18m units
Most Traded Dow stocks
- Citigroup (C) +0.3 (1.7%) to $17.49 on volume of 85m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +1.21 (4.3%) to $29.29 on volume of 62.6m units
- Intel (INTC) --0.2 (0.8%) to $23.39 on volume of 52.9m units
- General Electric (GE) --0.06 (0.2%) to $28.65 on volume of 39.9m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) --0.03 (0.1%) to $27.29 on volume of 39.8m units
Precious metals futures pulled back reasonably hard at one stage (as I surmisedit might, yesterday) and at one stage Gold touched $800 an ounce. I am a bit cheesed at having missed that entry - but I am madly trying to get my subscription offering prepared in time for Friday, so that people who are being let down by InvestorWeb have an alternative that is not run by a bunch of ex brokerage analysts.
No matter - an entry under $800 will happen soon.
|Precious Metals Futures|
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 107.79m units. Within the index, 8 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 76.65m units; 8 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 31.14m units.
Today the index rose by 2.55 points (1.79%) to 145.26 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) +6.39 (7.5%) to $91.09 on volume of 15.61m shares;
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.35 (3.2%) to $11.39 on volume of 4.97m shares;
- GoldCorp (GG) +0.69 (2.2%) to $32.43 on volume of 14.12m shares;
- Yamana Gold (AUY) +0.13 (1.2%) to $10.54 on volume of 15.75m shares; and
- Newmnt Mining (NEM) +0.42 (1%) to $43.25 on volume of 7.4m shares.
Energy futures had a real interesting ride, and it is extremely favourable for our long position (undertaken at between $113.70 and $114, depending on who you ask... I am using $114 as it gives the most conservative outcomes).
The nearest significant technical impediment to an ongoing advance, is when Brent crude hits $120 (equal to WTI at abot $122). This ought to happen within a few sessions - at which point I will be tempted to revent to Taleban/Viet-Cong tactical manouevre rather than Holding the Citadel. After all, it would result in an 800% return on margin, in less than two weeks.
One note of warning though - this week is also futures expiration, which can often lead to shameful shenanigans and rapid adverse moves in thinly traded markets (like Crude during the early European session). Keep an eye out for that.
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 84.33m units. All the index components rose today.
Today the index rose by 9.39 points (3.27%) to 296.86 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +4.74 (6.8%) to $74.65 on volume of 10.57m shares;
- Weatherford International (WFT) +1.67 (4.5%) to $38.38 on volume of 7.42m shares;
- Global Industries (GLBL) +0.32 (3.6%) to $9.09 on volume of 3.17m shares;
- Nabors Industries (NBR) +1.17 (3.4%) to $35.09 on volume of 8.55m shares; and
- Cameron International (CAM) +1.51 (3.3%) to $47.83 on volume of 3.67m shares.
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 5.5% - due to Fannie and Freddie's massive thrashing. That said, only two of my Bellwethers rose - WAl-Mart and Citigroup.
The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) -0.06 (0.21%) to $28.65 on volume of 39.95m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.30 (1.75%) to $17.49 on volume of 85.02m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.16 (0.27%) to $58.36 on volume of 12.68m units.
- IBM (IBM) -0.05 (0.04%) to $122.51 on volume of 6.76m units.
- Intel (INTC) -0.2 (0.85%) to $23.39 on volume of 52.94m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.01 (0.04%) to $24.23 on volume of 31.01m units.
- Google (GOOG) -5.5 (1.12%) to $485.00 on volume of 3.93m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -1.61 (26.79%) to $4.40 on volume of 205.96m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.92 (22.06%) to $3.25 on volume of 205.23m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 527.27m units. Within the index, 18 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 426.97m units; 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 35.33m units.
Today the index rose by 1.42 points (2.31%) to 62.84 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Bank Of America (BAC) +1.21 (4.3%) to $29.29 on volume of 62.59m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) +0.6 (4.2%) to $14.9 on volume of 67.49m shares;
- Wells Fargo (WFC) +1.13 (4.1%) to $28.92 on volume of 52.46m shares;
- JPMorganChase (JPM) +1.42 (4%) to $37 on volume of 38.65m shares; and
- Northern Trust (NTRS) +2.65 (3.5%) to $78.19 on volume of 2.22m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 205.95m units. Within the index, 11 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 91.6m units; 7 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 114.35m units.
Today the index rose by 1.1 points (0.3%) to 362.67 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.3 (2.5%) to $12.2 on volume of 2.95m shares;
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.12 (2.2%) to $5.7 on volume of 20.62m shares;
- KLA-Tencor Cp (KLAC) +0.78 (2%) to $39.08 on volume of 4.67m shares;
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) +0.39 (1.8%) to $22.27 on volume of 2.55m shares; and
- National Semiconductor (NSM) +0.32 (1.5%) to $22.25 on volume of 4.3m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 65.57m units. Within the index, 9 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 10.66m units; 8 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 54.91m units.
Today the index fell by 0.39 points (0.1%) to 372.78 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) -1.49 (1.3%) to $114.25 on volume of 4.12m shares;
- Rockwell Collins (COL) -0.65 (1.2%) to $51.35 on volume of 2.1m shares;
- Alliant Tech (ATK) -0.93 (0.9%) to $106.14 on volume of 0.22m shares;
- General Dynamics (GD) -0.73 (0.8%) to $91.26 on volume of 2.2m shares; and
- Gencorp (GY) -0.06 (0.7%) to $8.01 on volume of 0.17m shares.
Currency futures are marking time, with a slight downward tilt. Expect a little thrust upward to lure in those who are easily hypnotised by price action... and then whooshka - down she'll go (the USDX, I mean).
|U.S. Dollar Index||77.075||0.09||0.12|
|New Zealand Dollar||0.7091||-0.0003||-0.04|