Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

USRant: Late Day Rally Saves Bacon...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well. economic news was mixed, and all eyes are on the whirring propaganda machine, which is in overdrive now in order to convince people that the Fannie-Freddie bailout will only cost about $30 billion.

Yes, that's right - they're claiming that the bailout will cost a quarter of what the 1980s S&L crisis cost (adjusted for inflation).

In other words, the political gamesmanship with numbers begins. These are the same people who fired Larry Summers from the Treasury for saying that the Iraq War might cost upwards of $200bn (at the time frauds and charlatans like Paul Wolfowitz were claiming it would cost about $70bn). Realistically, the bailout's gonna cost a trill and a half, minimum - and the Iraq war is gonna cost three or four trill by the time all the amputees and homeless vets are buried.

But Chimpy McAwol - the monkey that sits in the President's chair while Prick Cheney runs the country - well, Chimpy doesn't want a number like that to cloud the Presidential run of America's American© American Maverick™ American Former POW 'Songbird the Collaborator'® McSame - son of the Admiral who covered up an act of war by Israel against the USS Liberty (just so's you know where that family's loyalty lies).

You might think that a Dem win is a foregone conclusion, but you're thinking "power of the ballot": think instead of the "power of the bullet". After all, young Barakalaka-macaca Saddam Obama bin Laden (or whatever the other guy is called - the gay mulatto dude) was only recently the target of a failed assassination plot. I'm picking the GOP doesn't want Obama dead until closer to he election, coz it would give the Dems too much scope to reorganise.

I shouldn't complain if the two wings of the US kleptocracy start 'icing' each other... any reduction in the global infestation of politicians is a good thing, regardless of how it is achieved - after all, it's not like they're all gonna get enlightened by some miracle...

Economic News

Consumer Confidence was better than expected, at 56.9 (consensus expected 53), however New Home Sales was a good deal weaker than expected (515k versus a best guess of 525k) despite rsing sharply compared to the prior reading.

Fed Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations:

  • a 28 Days repurchase totalling $ 20.000 billion,
  • a 2 Days repurchase totalling $ 6.500 billion, with $0.250 billion in Treasury-backed collateral, with a weighted average rate of 2.050%.
Headline Indices

After racing out of the blocks like a scared greyhound, The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled into a sideways-to-down pattern for the majority of the session - until a 'tease tick' breach of the morning's low generated a bounce into the close, By the time the dust had settled, history was made to show that the index advanced 26.62 points (0.23%) to 11412.87 points. The index high for the day was 11436.24 at just before 10:40 a.m., while the low was 11340.41 set at 2:45 p.m. NY time.

Total volume traded in the Dow was a feeble 477.88m units. Within the index, 18 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 323.66m units; 12 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 154.22m units.

The S&P500 Index advanced +4.67 points (0.37%) to 1271.51 points. Total S&P500 volume traded was 2.56bn units. Within the index, 302 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 1.62bn units; 181 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 853.68m units.

The main gainers (in percentage terms) were the disaster Twins - Fannie and Freddie - with some taggers-along...

  • Federal Home Loan (FRE) +0.68 (20.7%) to $3.97 on volume of 177.68m shares;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.43 (8.3%) to $5.62 on volume of 159.02m shares;
  • SLM Corporation (SLM) +1.01 (7.1%) to $15.24 on volume of 5.56m shares;
  • CoachInc. (COH) +1.78 (6.7%) to $28.18 on volume of 13.16m shares; and
  • Anadarko Petroleum (APC) +3.7 (6.4%) to $61.54 on volume of 10.06m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.62 points (0.15%) to 2361.97 points while the Nasdaq100 lost 3.4 points (0.18%) to 1886.32; total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was a paltry 495.71m units. Within the index, 48 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 189.42m units; 47 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 296.41m units.

The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • UAL (UAUA) -1.02 (8.4%) to $11.15 on volume of 16.79m shares;
  • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) -1.04 (6.6%) to $14.63 on volume of 31.48m shares;
  • Expedia (EXPE) -0.91 (5%) to $17.47 on volume of 2.66m shares;
  • Broadcom (BRCM) -1.25 (4.8%) to $24.92 on volume of 11.64m shares; and
  • Focus Media Holding (FMCN) -1.27 (4.2%) to $28.9 on volume of 1.97m shares.

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.43 points (2.05%) to 20.54 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.2 points (0.82%) to 24.08 points.

A Total of 3459 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 3.5 billion shares. A total of 2094 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 2.25 billion shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 1272 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.2 billion shares. only 17 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 113 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

Over on the Nasdaq 2959 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.14 billion shares. A total of 1481 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 470 million shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 1317 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 650 million shares. 35 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 103 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11412.87 +26.62 0.23%
S&P500 Index 1271.51 +4.67 0.37%
Nasdaq Composite 2361.97 -3.62 -0.15%
Nasdaq100 1886.32 -3.40 -0.18%
CBOE Volatility Index 20.54 -0.43 -2.05%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 24.08 -0.20 -0.82%


Dow Darlings - 

  • AIG (AIG) +0.86 (4.6%) to $19.64 on volume of 44m units
  • Home Depot (HD) +0.46 (1.7%) to $27.02 on volume of 15.6m units
  • Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +1.24 (1.6%) to $79.95 on volume of 17.7m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +0.48 (1.3%) to $36.61 on volume of 28.1m units
  • Citigroup (C) +0.23 (1.3%) to $17.84 on volume of 50.1m units

Dow Duds - 

  • Microsoft (MSFT) -0.39 (1.4%) to $27.27 on volume of 31m units
  • Pfizer (PFE) -0.23 (1.2%) to $19.28 on volume of 31.3m units
  • Boeing (BA) -0.68 (1.1%) to $63.39 on volume of 4.5m units
  • General Motors (GM) -0.09 (0.9%) to $10.04 on volume of 12.6m units
  • Verizon (VZ) -0.22 (0.6%) to $34.24 on volume of 8.7m units

Most Traded Dow stocks -

  • Citigroup (C) +0.23 (1.3%) to $17.84 on volume of 50.1m units
  • AIG (AIG) +0.86 (4.6%) to $19.64 on volume of 44m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.06 (0.2%) to $29.02 on volume of 42.2m units
  • Intel (INTC) +0.18 (0.8%) to $23.15 on volume of 36.1m units
  • General Electric (GE) --0.05 (0.2%) to $28.27 on volume of 35.2m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced modestly - it's not going to take much to spook this filly, so we might be in with a chance at getting set back below $800 an ounce.

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 825.2 3.5 0.43
Silver 13.6 0.23 1.72
Palladium 286.5 0.5 0.17
Platinum 1419 -16 -1.11

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 62.67m units. Within the index, 10 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 33.25m units; 6 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 29.41m units.

Today the index rose by 0.41 points (0.28%) to 147.4 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.35 (4%) to $9.1 on volume of 6.98m shares;
  • Royal Gold (RGLD) +0.71 (2.1%) to $34.44 on volume of 0.22m shares;
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +0.47 (1.8%) to $26.41 on volume of 0.91m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.15 (1.3%) to $11.52 on volume of 1.52m shares; and
  • Newmnt Mining (NEM) +0.49 (1.1%) to $44.2 on volume of 4m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures were solid in unspectacular  - last Friday's expiration manipulation has some newcomers shell-shocks, and I will bet that this week's Commitments of Traders report sees a sharp decline in the Dumb Bull Ratio.

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 116.24 1.13 0.98
Heating Oil 3.234 0.055 1.73
Natural Gas 8.396 0.458 5.77
Gasoline RBOB 2.9712 0.0889 3.08
Ethanol 2.348 -0.001 -0.04

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 56.55m units. All 15 issues rose, helping the index t to a gain of 6.3 points (2.14%) to 300.01 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Global Industries (GLBL) +0.7 (7.9%) to $9.56 on volume of 3.46m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) +2.84 (4.8%) to $61.95 on volume of 1.05m shares;
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) +1.33 (3.8%) to $36.67 on volume of 6.32m shares;
  • Weatherford International (WFT) +1.06 (2.8%) to $38.64 on volume of 5.09m shares; and
  • Smith International (SII) +1.95 (2.8%) to $72.66 on volume of 2.89m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 3.2% thanks almost entirely to Fannie and Freddie. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.05 (0.18%) to $28.27 on volume of 35.18m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.23 (1.31%) to $17.84 on volume of 50.07m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.45 (0.77%) to $59.00 on volume of 10.86m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -0.36 (0.29%) to $122.50 on volume of 5.54m units.
  • Intel (INTC) +0.18 (0.78%) to $23.15 on volume of 36.12m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.1 (0.41%) to $24.11 on volume of 21.69m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -8.85 (1.83%) to $474.16 on volume of 2.65m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.43 (8.29%) to $5.62 on volume of 159.17m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.68 (20.67%) to $3.97 on volume of 177.86m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 343.84m units. Within the index, 19 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 268.84m units; 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 75m units.

Today the index rose by 0.39 points (0.63%) to 62.25 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Regions Financial (RF) +0.18 (2.2%) to $8.36 on volume of 10.92m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.23 (2.1%) to $11.11 on volume of 7.41m shares;
  • BB&T Corp (BBT) +0.4 (1.4%) to $28.21 on volume of 7.51m shares;
  • State Street (STT) +0.91 (1.4%) to $65.8 on volume of 2.81m shares; and
  • Comerica Inc (CMA) +0.35 (1.4%) to $26.18 on volume of 2.28m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 178.33m units. Within the index, 5 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 52.11m units; 11 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 106.31m units.

Today the index fell by 3.48 points (0.97%) to 357.02 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) -1.04 (6.6%) to $14.63 on volume of 31.48m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.25 (5.6%) to $4.24 on volume of 23.03m shares;
  • Broadcom (BRCM) -1.25 (4.8%) to $24.92 on volume of 11.64m shares;
  • Sandisk (SNDK) -0.42 (2.8%) to $14.4 on volume of 3.85m shares; and
  • National Semiconductor (NSM) -0.43 (1.9%) to $21.7 on volume of 4.32m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 54.51m units. Within the index, 8 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 6.91m units; 9 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 47.6m units.

Today the index rose by 1.17 points (0.32%) to 368.83 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +0.58 (1.8%) to $33.11 on volume of 0.68m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) +0.89 (1.8%) to $51.54 on volume of 0.28m shares;
  • FLIRr Systems (FLIR) +0.61 (1.7%) to $36.71 on volume of 0.48m shares;
  • General Dynamics (GD) +1.09 (1.2%) to $92.21 on volume of 1.5m shares; and
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) +1.33 (1.2%) to $115.59 on volume of 1.58m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures performed as follows -

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 77.35 0.445 0.58
Euro FX 1.4634 -0.0107 -0.73
Swiss Franc 0.9094 -0.0035 -0.38
Australian Dollar 0.8537 -0.0078 -0.91
Canadian Dollar 0.9533 0.0015 0.16
Japanese Yen 0.9132 -0.0029 -0.32
New Zealand Dollar 0.6953 -0.0067 -0.95