Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, August 18, 2008

USRant: No Unicorns?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well, we pulled the trigger on the new long position in Crude Oil today; roughly an hour after it ought to have been done, thanks to a hiccup in my datafeed that meant I was blind until almost midday French time. Anyhow... entering a buck higher than we would have liked is a pain, but won't matter too much after tomorrow.

I have some slight concern that perhaps the optimal entry points in Gold and Platinum occurred today, too. If that turns out to be the case, an entry point will present itself pretty readily in the next day or two.

Now the interesting thing about today, is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Machad very bad reactions to the news floated over the weekend (in Barrons) that the US government was going to recapitalise the two lumps of toxic investment waste.

It's not clear to me what  da Boyz were unhappy about: perhaps they were annoyed that the bailout will ot take the form of cheques made out directly to Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase and Merrill Lynch... and the absence of unicorn ponies that poo chocolate bars and wee rainbows was also a likely source of chagrin.

Economic News

Nuthin'.

Fed Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase today - a 1 Day repurchase totalling $10bn, with $7.676bn in Treasury-backed collateral. The repo was struck at a weighted average rate of 2.112% - thus, 11.2 basis points above Fed Funds.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 180.51 points (1.55%) to 11479.39 points. The index high for the day was 11690.43, while the low was 11434.12.

Total volume traded in the index was very feeble at 540.09m units. All 30 Dow component issues fell.

The S&P500 Index lost 19.6 points (1.51%) to 1278.60 points. Total volume traded in the index was 2.67bn units. Within the index, 54 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 229.41m units; 441 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 2.4bn units. That's a more than 10:1 ratio of up volume to down volume (and almost 9:1 winners to losers). yet we are well above the recent swing low, and it was generally a low-volume day. Odd, that.

The main S&P decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • [Freddie Mac] Federal Home Loan (FRE) -1.46 (25%) to $4.39 on volume of 90.13m shares;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -1.76 (22.3%) to $6.15 on volume of 93.17m shares;
  • SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) -1.8 (10.2%) to $15.84 on volume of 15.41m shares;
  • The Hershey Company (HSY) -3.91 (9.4%) to $37.71 on volume of 5.52m shares; and
  • SunocoInc. (SUN) -3.98 (8.9%) to $40.6 on volume of 4.4m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 35.54 points (1.45%) to 2416.98 points; the Nasdaq100 lost 24.86 points (1.27%) to 1932.70 points.

Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 was 720.94m units. Within the index, 13 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 110.82m units; 86 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 610.12m units. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) -4.45 (13%) to $29.76 on volume of 22.92m shares;
  • SanDisk (SNDK) -1.8 (10.2%) to $15.84 on volume of 15.41m shares;
  • Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -0.09 (6%) to $1.4 on volume of 48.72m shares;
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) -5.57 (5.3%) to $100.39 on volume of 1.54m shares; and
  • Baidu.com (BIDU) -13.76 (4.3%) to $307.25 on volume of 1.82m shares.

The CBOE Volatility Index advanced +1.47 points (7.51%) to 21.05 and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index advanced +1.27 points (5.64%) to 23.79 points.

A Total of 3476 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 3.37 billion shares. A total of 959 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 600 million shares trading to the upside. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 2406 losers, which accounted for a total downside volume of 2.75 billion shares. 36 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 106 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

Over on the Nasdaq 2977 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.61 billion shares. A total of 859 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.27 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 2004 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.33 billion shares. 47 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 88 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11479.39 -180.51 -1.55%
S&P500 Index 1278.60 -19.60 -1.51%
Nasdaq Composite 2416.98 -35.54 -1.45%
Nasdaq100 1932.70 -24.86 -1.27%
CBOE Volatility Index 21.05 +1.47 7.51%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 23.79 +1.27 5.64%

Dow Decliners
  • General Motors (GM) -0.82 (7.3%) to $10.36 on volume of 25.9m units
  • AIG (AIG) -1.39 (6%) to $21.6 on volume of 27.4m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.93 (5%) to $17.62 on volume of 62.2m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) -1.4 (4.6%) to $29.3 on volume of 56.8m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -1.33 (3.5%) to $36.74 on volume of 31.4m units

Most Traded Dow stocks

  • Citigroup (C) --0.93 (5%) to $17.62 on volume of 62.2m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) --1.4 (4.6%) to $29.3 on volume of 56.8m units
  • Intel (INTC) --0.25 (1%) to $24.01 on volume of 44.5m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) --0.12 (0.4%) to $27.69 on volume of 35.4m units
  • General Electric (GE) --0.45 (1.5%) to $29.35 on volume of 34.7m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced reasonably solidly - which is only annoying because I would have liked to enter this market at least within a bull's roar of the swing low.  If necessary we'll find an entry point on a n intraday pullback - but we will never chase.

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 802.4 14 1.78
Silver 13.04 0.225 1.76
Palladium 286.5 1.7 0.6
Platinum 1402 13.8 0.99

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 69.34m units. Within the index, 12 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 57.59m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 10.41m units.

Today the index rose by 2.06 points (1.5%) to 139.44 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +3.14 (6.5%) to $51.64 on volume of 4.12m shares;
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) +1.21 (5%) to $25.59 on volume of 1.35m shares;
  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.41 (4%) to $10.55 on volume of 3.29m shares;
  • Royal Gold (RGLD) +1.17 (3.6%) to $33.29 on volume of 0.51m shares; and
  • Kinroos Gold (KGC) +0.47 (3.1%) to $15.41 on volume of 4.55m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures spiked in the early going due to storm fears in the gulf of Mexico, but gave all that back and then some. Crude actually dipped below $112 a barrel briefly.

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 112.87 -0.9 -0.79
Heating Oil 3.089 -0.0301 -0.97
Natural Gas 7.855 -0.237 -2.93
Gasoline RBOB 2.815 -0.0452 -1.58
Ethanol 2.18 0.044 2.06

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 65.59m units. Within the index, 1 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 0.94m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 64.66m units.

Today the index fell by 4.53 points (1.6%) to 278.9 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Weatherford International (WFT) -0.93 (2.5%) to $35.63 on volume of 7.16m shares;
  • Schlumberger (SLB) -2.1 (2.3%) to $89.37 on volume of 7.48m shares;
  • Cameron International (CAM) -1.01 (2.2%) to $44.69 on volume of 2.56m shares;
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -1.48 (2.2%) to $66.98 on volume of 6.16m shares; and
  • Transocean Inc (RIG) -2.34 (1.9%) to $123.9 on volume of 4.93m shares.

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 6.8%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.45 (1.51%) to $29.35 on volume of 34.65m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.93 (5.01%) to $17.62 on volume of 62.19m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) -0.54 (0.91%) to $58.83 on volume of 10.24m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -1.77 (1.4%) to $124.59 on volume of 5.16m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.25 (1.03%) to $24.01 on volume of 44.49m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.42 (1.69%) to $24.49 on volume of 30.73m units.
  • Google (GOOG) -11.85 (2.32%) to $498.30 on volume of 3.26m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -1.76 (22.25%) to $6.15 on volume of 93.18m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -1.46 (24.96%) to $4.39 on volume of 90.17m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 376.23m units. No index components rose - the fallout from the Fannie and Freddie reaction was widespread.

Today the index fell by 2.57 points (3.88%) to 63.6 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) -0.66 (8.3%) to $7.31 on volume of 15.3m shares;
  • Washington Mutual (WM) -0.34 (7.5%) to $4.21 on volume of 36.23m shares;
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) -2.07 (7.4%) to $25.91 on volume of 3.12m shares;
  • Regions Financial (RF) -0.65 (7.1%) to $8.45 on volume of 12.6m shares; and
  • New M&I Corporation (MI) -0.93 (5.9%) to $14.87 on volume of 3.78m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 201.91m units. Within the index, 2 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 50.65m units; 16 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 151.27m units.

Today the index fell by 6.48 points (1.72%) to 369.95 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Sandisk (SNDK) -1.8 (10.2%) to $15.84 on volume of 15.41m shares;
  • Micron Technology (MU) -0.3 (5.6%) to $5.09 on volume of 11.37m shares;
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) -0.78 (3.4%) to $22.23 on volume of 3.17m shares;
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) -0.51 (2.6%) to $18.79 on volume of 19.22m shares; and
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.29 (2.3%) to $12.26 on volume of 1.41m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 55.98m units. Within the index, 3 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 2.58m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 53.39m units.

Today the index fell by 3.51 points (0.92%) to 378.99 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Esterline Tech (ESL) -1.41 (2.6%) to $52.17 on volume of 0.2m shares;
  • Alliant Tech (ATK) -1.86 (1.7%) to $109.12 on volume of 0.22m shares;
  • Gencorp (GY) -0.14 (1.7%) to $8.34 on volume of 0.17m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) -0.45 (1.5%) to $29.35 on volume of 34.64m shares; and
  • United Technologies (UTX) -0.97 (1.5%) to $65.83 on volume of 3.63m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures continue to try and find a way northwards for the USD, but it ain't gonna happen. Russia could nuke Georgia (although it's much more likely to nuke Poland in the short term), and the impact on teh Euro would only be short term. Why is that? Because the European Union is a farce - a bunch of short wogs trying to impose tyranny on nations which have seen their like a hundred times in the last millennium.

Furthermore, having all those short-arses together means back-biting, conniving, and backstabbing. In short, a recipe for administrative gridlock, and ergo the inability of the Euoprean Parliament to extort vast amounts of money to squander on wars. That is the US's chosen path for now, and that will be its financial ruin.

Sometimes you've got to say "Thank goodness for short-man insecurity..."

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 77.235 -0.115 -0.15
Euro FX 1.4675 0.002 0.14
Swiss Franc 0.9111 -0.0002 -0.02
Australian Dollar 0.8658 0.0029 0.34
Canadian Dollar 0.9391 -0.0043 -0.46
Japanese Yen 0.909 0.0028 0.31
New Zealand Dollar 0.708 0.0045 0.64