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With two US carrier battle groups reportedly heading to the Gulf region, and US Sectretary of State Chevron-Texaco-Tanker Rice pre-emptively exculpating any putative Israeli attack on Iran, it is rather interesting that the Energy sector has continued to slide. No matter - as I pointed out with Crude above $140, the likely next move from that point was down. That played out perfectly.
I just hope that the Yanks (or their proxies, Israel) wait until the next New Moon before launching against Iran; although usually the new moon strategy applies primarily to ground assaults (it makes target acquisition difficult for the enemy), such a delay in an air assault would do us a great service by permitting us some time to get set in new long positions in Crude Oil and Natural Gas (and Gold and Platinum while we're at it).
At present - without yet having thoroughly perused the CoT data - Monday morning Chicago time is the time to be setting up entries for this Mother of All Trades. (And if you look down the bottom you will get some wisdom about the USD as well).
No matter - today shorts in equities were spooked out by something (and it wasn't a rise in Labour Productivity - who the hell cares if the US government pretends not to understand Harrod Neutral TechnicalChange?). Stock indices blew the doors off, and set up a very high probability that Monday will see a new USSpy short position in US stock indices as well. In the back of my mind is the runup in equities just before the US launched in Iraq - the thing being taken up to go down.
Economic News
Labour Productivity - badly measured - was up 2.2%. Big whoop.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchases today - a weekend repurchase totalling $1.5bn, with only $250 million in Treasury-backed collateral, with a weighted average rate of 1.95%.
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +302.89 points (2.65%) to 11734.32 points. The index high for the day was 11759.96, while the low was 11388.04.
Yotal volume traded in the index was 764.71m units. 28 of the 20 index components rose, with aggregate volume of 749.01m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 15.7m units. That's a 50:1 tilt in favour of the gainers, volume wise.
AS the name suggests, the S&P500 index (SPX) contains 500 components; the total volume traded in the index was 3.5bn units. Within the index, 437 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 2.9bn shares; 57 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 520.69m units.
Biggest percentage gainers in the index today were -
- Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) +0.93 (11.9%) to $8.72 on volume of 58.98m shares;
- Qwest Communications Int (Q) +0.38 (11.1%) to $3.81 on volume of 47.89m shares;
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) +2.04 (10.6%) to $21.33 on volume of 4.93m shares;
- KeyCorp (KEY) +1.13 (10.5%) to $11.94 on volume of 15.7m shares; and
- Dean Foods (DF) +2.16 (9.8%) to $24.28 on volume of 4.35m shares.
A Total of 3467 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.4 billion shares. A total of 2482 counters posted gains for the day, with aggregate upside volume of 3.25 billion shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were the 915 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 1.06 billion shares. 48 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 115 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced +58.37 points (2.48%) to 2414.10 points; the Nasdaq100 advanced +46.14 points (2.45%) to 1926.23 points.
Total volume traded in the Nasdaq100 index was 981.64m units. 85 index components rose, with total upside volume of 745.84m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 235.8m units.
Biggest percentage gainers in the NDX were
- UAL (UAUA) +1.52 (15.8%) to $11.13 on volume of 25.03m shares;
- Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) +2.02 (8.2%) to $26.55 on volume of 1.74m shares;
- Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) +2.45 (8.1%) to $32.59 on volume of 3.36m shares;
- Hansen Natural (HANS) +1.58 (7.3%) to $23.23 on volume of 6.72m shares; and
- PETsMART (PETM) +1.51 (6.4%) to $24.95 on volume of 3.53m shares.
All told, 2997 tickers traded today on the Nasdaq; total Nasdaq volume was 2.16 billion shares, which is not really that terrific for such a banner headline day. A total of 2048 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.68 billion shares trading to the upside. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange was populated with 833 losers, which accounted for a total volume of 480 million shares. 83 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 111 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 0.58 points (2.74%) to 20.57 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.63 points (2.55%) to 24.12 points.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 11734.32 | +302.89 | 2.65% |
| S&P500 Index | 1296.31 | +30.25 | 2.39% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2414.10 | +58.37 | 2.48% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1926.23 | +46.14 | 2.45% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 20.57 | -0.58 | -2.74% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 24.12 | -0.63 | -2.55% |
Of the 30 Dow components, 28 gained ground for the day, with total upside volume of 750.09m units. 2 Dow components suffered losses for the day, with total volume in declining index components of 16.12m units.
Dow Gainers
- Home Depot (HD) +1.89 (7.7%) to $26.37 on volume of 21.5m units
- McDonalds (MCD) +3.81 (6.2%) to $65.67 on volume of 24.8m units
- Citigroup (C) +0.92 (5%) to $19.39 on volume of 76.3m units
- Boeing (BA) +3.17 (4.9%) to $67.86 on volume of 8.6m units
- Du Pont (DD) +1.95 (4.5%) to $45.31 on volume of 5.6m units
Dow Decliners
- IBM (IBM) -0.24 (0.2%) to $128.81 on volume of 7m units
- Alcoa (AA) -0.04 (0.1%) to $31.76 on volume of 9.1m units
Most Traded Dow stocks
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.74 (2.7%) to $28.13 on volume of 79.9m units
- Citigroup (C) +0.92 (5%) to $19.39 on volume of 76.3m units
- General Electric (GE) +1.07 (3.7%) to $29.64 on volume of 60.5m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.56 (2.4%) to $24.23 on volume of 58.9m units
- AIG (AIG) +1.03 (4.3%) to $24.87 on volume of 57.7m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures took another bit of a caning - partly due to renewed buillishness on the US Dollar (misplaced bullishness, as we will discover soon enough) -
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 858.3 | -15.5 | -1.77 |
| Silver | 15.28 | -0.977 | -6.01 |
| Palladium | 330.75 | -17.25 | -4.96 |
| Platinum | 1560 | -22.6 | -1.43 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 103.67m units. Within the index, all 16 issues fell. The index fell by 6.76 points (4.47%) to 144.38 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -0.37 (15%) to $2.09 on volume of 21.56m shares;
- RandGold Resources (GOLD) -4.86 (10.2%) to $42.87 on volume of 1.61m shares;
- Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) -0.99 (9.8%) to $9.1 on volume of 8.13m shares;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -0.87 (9.5%) to $8.33 on volume of 2.74m shares; and
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) -0.75 (6.7%) to $10.5 on volume of 3.48m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy Futures were caned similar to Precious Metals. If people are too stupid to even begin to price in the recent eruption in Georgia (where Russia is now very nearly involved in a hot war) and the rather strange pronnoucement by Secretary of State Oil-Tanker Rice, then far be it from us to bother to criticise them. All we will do is take a long position early on Monday, and sit back and watch the fireworks while our money doubles in less than a week.
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 114.79 | -5.23 | -4.36 |
| Heating Oil | 3.12 | -0.1136 | -3.51 |
| Natural Gas | 8.303 | -0.268 | -3.13 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 2.88 | -0.1227 | -4.09 |
| Ethanol | 2.04 | -0.188 | -8.44 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 78.33m units. Within the index, 1 issue rose, with aggregate volume of 4.86m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 73.47m units.
Today the index fell by 8.18 points (2.79%) to 285.01 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -
- Cameron International (CAM) -2.05 (4.3%) to $45.66 on volume of 3.53m shares;
- Global Industries (GLBL) -0.36 (4.2%) to $8.25 on volume of 4.99m shares;
- Baker Hughes (BHI) -3.29 (4.1%) to $77.2 on volume of 4.93m shares;
- Weatherford International (WFT) -1.54 (4%) to $37.25 on volume of 6.18m shares; and
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -2.74 (3.7%) to $70.52 on volume of 5.72m shares.
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 1.1%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +1.07 (3.75%) to $29.64 on volume of 60.52m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.92 (4.98%) to $19.39 on volume of 76.3m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.90 (1.58%) to $57.86 on volume of 22.13m units.
- IBM (IBM) -0.24 (0.19%) to $128.81 on volume of 7m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.56 (2.37%) to $24.23 on volume of 58.88m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.67 (2.84%) to $24.25 on volume of 52.96m units.
- Google (GOOG) +15.89 (3.32%) to $495.01 on volume of 3.71m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.9 (9.05%) to $9.05 on volume of 99.71m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.01 (0.17%) to $5.90 on volume of 46.69m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 473.73m units. Within the index, 22 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 396.92m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 76.81m units.
Today the index rose by 2.27 points (3.44%) to 68.3 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Keycorp (KEY) +1.13 (10.5%) to $11.94 on volume of 15.7m shares;
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) +0.55 (7.5%) to $7.84 on volume of 7.41m shares;
- Citigroup Inc (C) +0.92 (5%) to $19.39 on volume of 76.22m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) +0.81 (4.7%) to $17.93 on volume of 59.75m shares; and
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.68 (4.5%) to $15.68 on volume of 10.8m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 202.41m units. Within the index, 18 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 202.41m units; 0 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 0m units.
Today the index rose by 7.52 points (2.09%) to 367.17 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.35 (4.2%) to $8.65 on volume of 1.38m shares;
- Micron Technology (MU) +0.17 (3.3%) to $5.27 on volume of 14.5m shares;
- Sandisk (SNDK) +0.5 (3.1%) to $16.67 on volume of 9.08m shares;
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) +0.6 (2.8%) to $22.22 on volume of 2.75m shares; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) +0.64 (2.5%) to $25.74 on volume of 10.57m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 87.99m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 87.31m units; 1 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 0.69m units.
Today the index rose by 8.81 points (2.41%) to 374.4 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Rockwell Collins (COL) +2.7 (5.4%) to $52.7 on volume of 1.08m shares;
- Boeing (BA) +3.17 (4.9%) to $67.86 on volume of 8.56m shares;
- General Electric (GE) +1.07 (3.7%) to $29.64 on volume of 60.4m shares;
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) +3.77 (3.5%) to $112.06 on volume of 2.6m shares; and
- United Technologies (UTX) +2.12 (3.3%) to $66.86 on volume of 4.54m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures have gone much further than I had anticipated - not to worry though, since we didn't initiate any enw short USD or Long EUR positions today. It's clear that currency markets think that the ECB is going to be as irresponsible as the Fed and will throw the Euro under a bus in order to try and stave off the consequences of credit excess in the Euro zone.
Well. I've got news for them: the ECB is the Bundesbank and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.
Germany does not have anywhere near the credit problems that France, Italy, Spain and the UK exhibit (and on France and Spain the problems are exaxcerbated because a lot of hot money flowed in with immigrant Poms).
As I say, that problem does not exist in Germany. The ECB is a German operation, and its rate settings are undertaken for the greater good of Germany.
The Krauts are laughing in their sleeves at the current economic misadventures of the rest of the West. As the famous cry went up at the guillotine "Jacques de Molay, Thou Art Avenged" (making a reference to an event that happened 650 years earlier), the Krauts will take comfort in being able to 're-capture' Western Europe without having to undertake a blitzkreig (or any form of krieg, in fact)
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 76.01 | 1.285 | 1.72 |
| Euro FX | 1.4982 | -0.0312 | -2.04 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.9255 | -0.0162 | -1.72 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.8842 | -0.0192 | -2.13 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9357 | -0.0146 | -1.54 |
| Japanese Yen | 0.909 | -0.0067 | -0.73 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.7005 | -0.0103 | -1.45 |
