Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

OzRant: A Bit Late...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

With US markets delivering a resounding vote of "Are you joking, Mr Hankie?", it was not a surprise that the Strayan markets likewise hit the skids.

The charlatans that run the Ticket-clippers' Union (the ASX - yet another no-ticket, no-start organisation similar to the BLF) can't blame short-sellers for today - although how the 0.28% of float of CBA (as an example) could ever be presented as an important reason for the price decline is beyond me. After all, short interest in CBA (3.7m shares), is almost exactly equal to one day's trade in the stock.

In fact, aggregate short interest - the total of shares held short in all shortable stocks on the ASX - is a paltry 0.35% of the float of shortable stocks. One share in 300.

For what it's worth, I routinely slice and dice the short interest numbers in the Short Report on the subscription site, but for the moment I wouldn't try and look at it - today it's going to be down. But you'll find - when it's back up later today - that it shows a load of detail on short interest. I have found analysis of short interest is a bit like put-call ratios - best used as a contrarian indicator. That opinion is based primarily on my research on US markets, but thus far it seems to hold true in Australia as well.

This fact - the minuscule proportion of stock held short - is the prima facie evidence that the whole short-sellers-as-lepers crapola to be bullshit.

Bullshit is a very specific type of storytelling: the issue is not whether the thing being said is true or not. The bullshitter does not give a flying rat's ass if it's true - literally not one scintilla of mental effort is devoted to assessing whether the bullshit is factual. The core issue for the bullshitter is that he thinks that what he says sounds plausible

And the layer upon layer of bullshits artist and charlatans that infest the financial-political nexus in all Western countries is now beyond the point of no return: it will, in all likelihood, require vast bloodshed to return us to a system where politicians and soi-disant 'opinion leaders' are afraid to bullshit us. 

Take, for example, Mr Hankie himself- the guy who said in April  "I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained"- this horse's arse wants a trillion dollar line of credit for his cronies? With no obligation to be subject to anything other than bi-annual speeches to Congress?

Now either he knew that what he was saying was a lie, or he is so ill-informed that he didn't know that what he was saying was wrong: take your pick, but notice there is no choice that results in the conclusion "Sure - give the guy a trillion bucks (for starters), this guy is up to the job". 

A guy who was absolutely wrong on the biggest economic issue of this generation; the guy who asked Merrill Lynch to pony up $7bill for a Lehman takeover the very weekend that Merrill negotiated itself out of existence... the guy who - bugger it, I can't be bothered enumerating the guy's idiocy. But this is the Saviour? 

So he made a personal fortune (supposedly $700 mill) by heading up a team of ticket-clippers and shysters: I have no doubt he thinks he is worth every nickel of it. I flatter myself that, put in the same situation, I would take the money (let's be honest) but I would know full well that I didn't deserve it.  And I certainly would not pretend to be able to answer the world's financial ills thereafter.

And what is worse - if McCain wins (unlikely, but nothing surprises me anymore in US 'elections'), the guy in control of that trillion bucks will be one of the slipperiest shills in the history of the United States - Phil 'Stop Whining, You Peons' Gramm.

It's the lack of any decent sense of shame in these people that makes me know that they are a different species - a malignant tumour on our society, and I honestly want them wiped out. The sort of person who can make a statement which is utterly at odds with observable reality, and a few months later - with no mea culpa - they're waffling about how they are the guy who has to be trusted to fix stuff. Kinda like Brokeback Cowboy (George the Turd) on Iran now - after his deplorable performance on every front, he thinks he ought to be trusted when he opens his idiot yapper. Shows what happens when Mamma and Pappy are too closely related...

But let's get to the scores: 

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - dipped reasonably hard, registering a loss of 92.4 points (1.83%), finishing at 4957.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5050.1 at 10:00 am (yesterday's closing number), while the low for the day was 4920.4 - set at 2:39 pm Sydney time. So 40% of the day's maximum intraday decline, was recovered in the last 80 minutes: yet again, everybody trying to front-run the bounce. So we're not at a bottom by any stretch.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.04bn units, 27.8% below its 10-day average (the average shot up as a result of two 2-billion share days last week). 

The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1284 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 367 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 368.4m units; decliners numbered 634 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 597.7m shares.

Of the 496 All Ordinaries components, 138 rose while 296 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.9:1, with 250.04m shares traded in gainers while 484.23m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - registered a loss of 97 points (1.93%), closing out the session at 4923.5 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 4957.70 -92.40 (1.8%)
ASX 20 2837.70 -58.50 (2.0%)
ASX 50 4867.40 -98.00 (2.0%)
ASX 100 4015.80 -79.70 (1.9%)
ASX 200 4923.50 -97.00 (1.9%)
ASX 300 4912.10 -95.10 (1.9%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 4807.70 -86.30 (1.8%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2616.50 -38.10 (1.4%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 58.5 points (2.02%), closing out the session at 2837.7 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 2 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 18 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 129.99m units; 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 43.85m shares, while the 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 85.26m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM), +$1.34 (5.25%) to $26.84 on volume of 2.8 million shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), +$0.16 (3.98%) to $4.18 on volume of 41 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.63 (9.95%) to $5.70 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), -$1.11 (5.8%) to $18.04 on volume of 8.2 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$1.8 (4.53%) to $37.90 on volume of 15.3 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), -$1.7 (4.5%) to $36.10 on volume of 3.4 million shares; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.8 (4.26%) to $18.00 on volume of 5.4 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO): while still dropping overall, XSO did a bit better than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords registered a loss of 38.1 points (1.44%), closing out the session at 2616.5 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 65 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 132 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 265.52m units: volume in the 65 gainers totalling 86.57m shares, with trade totalling 171.33m units in the index's 132 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.01 (27.27%) to $0.03 on volume of 832.7 thousand shares;
  • CBH Resources Limited (CBH), +$0.01 (18.31%) to $0.08 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • Sino Gold Mining Limited (SGX), +$0.80 (17.02%) to $5.50 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Apex Minerals NL (AXM), +$0.04 (12.73%) to $0.31 on volume of 2.6 million shares; and
  • Mirabela Nickel Limited (MBN), +$0.51 (12.14%) to $4.71 on volume of 184.6 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Albidon Limited (ALB), -$0.23 (15.33%) to $1.27 on volume of 299.2 thousand shares;
  • Compass Resources Limited (CMR), -$0.07 (13.73%) to $0.44 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
  • City Pacific Limited (CIY), -$0.03 (13.51%) to $0.16 on volume of 418.5 thousand shares;
  • Brockman Resources Ltd (BRM), -$0.15 (12.72%) to $1.00 on volume of 1.7 million shares; and
  • Minara Resources Limited (MRE), -$0.15 (11.54%) to $1.15 on volume of 3.3 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 4957.7 -92.4 -1.83 757.6m
XFL ASX 50 4867.4 -98 -1.97 272.8m
XJO ASX 200 4923.5 -97 -1.93 598m
XKO ASX 300 4912.1 -95.1 -1.9 697.3m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 4807.7 -86.3 -1.76 169m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2616.5 -38.1 -1.44 255.6m
XTL ASX 20 2837.7 -58.5 -2.02 124.4m
XTO ASX 100 4015.8 -79.7 -1.95 441.8m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 2 22 45 138 65 367
Declines 18 77 155 296 132 634
Advancing Volume 43.8m 150.9m 188.1m 250m 86.6m 368.4m
Declining Volume 85.3m 295m 423.9m 484.2m 171.3m 597.7m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, today's market action was dominated by sectoral declines - only one sector managed a gain for the day, and it got there on the performance of one stock in the index..

The best performing index was Telecommunications (XTJ), which added 46.3 points (3.36%) to 1422.8 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 45.73m units; The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 41.04m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 4.69m units. The only gainer in the index was also the only stock that really matters in the index - 

  • Telstra Corporation Limited. (TLS), +$0.16 (3.98%) to $4.18 on volume of 41 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 82.5 points (5.32%) to 1469 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 103.01m units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 101.43m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0.68m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.63 (9.95%) to $5.70 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.03 (9.09%) to $0.30 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Goodman Group (GMG), -$0.24 (8.33%) to $2.64 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • GPT Group (GPT), -$0.16 (7.77%) to $1.90 on volume of 11.7 million shares; and
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), -$0.12 (7.47%) to $1.43 on volume of 2.3 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Materials (XMJ), which slid 346 points (2.64%) to 12761.6 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 161.68m units; The 29 decliners had volume traded totalling 82.65m units, and 14 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 76.83m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Minara Resources Limited (MRE), -$0.15 (11.54%) to $1.15 on volume of 3.3 million shares;
  • Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), -$0.64 (8.95%) to $6.51 on volume of 4.9 million shares;
  • Gunns Limited (GNS), -$0.09 (7.2%) to $1.10 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Mount Gibson Iron (MGX), -$0.11 (5.98%) to $1.73 on volume of 9.6 million shares; and
  • Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC), -$0.05 (5.66%) to $0.75 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 36.5 points (2.17%) to 1647.2 points. The 24 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 49.86m units; The 20 decliners had volume traded totalling 33.72m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 11.51m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group (MCG), -$0.22 (7.94%) to $2.55 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • Invocare Limited (IVC), -$0.25 (4.6%) to $5.19 on volume of 717.5 thousand shares;
  • Fairfax Media Limited (FXJ), -$0.13 (4.36%) to $2.85 on volume of 4.3 million shares;
  • News Corporation Inc (Voting CDI) (NWS), -$0.71 (4.31%) to $15.78 on volume of 3 million shares; and
  • GUD. Holdings Limited (GUD), -$0.28 (4.3%) to $6.23 on volume of 211.4 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XTJ Telecommunications 1422.8 46.3 3.36 46m
XUJ Utilities 4539.8 -12.5 -0.27 38m
XEJ Energy 17066.6 -66.4 -0.39 30m
XHJ Healthcare 9052.7 -106.4 -1.16 13m
XNJ Industrials 4602.7 -62.9 -1.35 85m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7200.9 -104 -1.42 26m
XIJ Information Technology 491.9 -8.8 -1.76 3m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 5043.8 -109.7 -2.13 69m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1647.2 -36.5 -2.17 50m
XMJ Materials 12761.6 -346 -2.64 162m
XPJ Property Trusts 1469 -82.5 -5.32 103m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.18 0.16 3.98 41m
LGL Lihir Gold Limited 2.77 0.12 4.53 27.9m
OZL OZ Minerals Limited 1.71 0.11 6.56 18.8m
BHP BHP Billiton Limited 37.90 -1.80 -4.53 15.3m
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.32 -0.01 -3.08 15.1m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
RAT Rubicon America Trust 0.03 0.01 27.27 832.7k
CBH CBH Resources Limited 0.08 0.01 18.31 4m
SGX Sino Gold Mining Limited 5.50 0.80 17.02 1.9m
RMS Ramelius Resources Limited 0.70 0.09 14.75 408.3k
AXM Apex Minerals NL 0.31 0.04 12.73 2.6m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
CEG CEC Group Limited 0.14 -0.04 -20.59 26.9k
EBB Everest Babcock & Brown Limited 0.28 -0.07 -20 132.7k
ALB Albidon Limited 1.27 -0.23 -15.33 299.2k
CMR Compass Resources Limited 0.44 -0.07 -13.73 1.3m
CIY City Pacific Limited 0.16 -0.03 -13.51 418.5k