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There seems to be a rather touching desire of 'investors' to grasp at any ray of hope - so when Lehman Brothers didn't actually turn toes-up yesterday, the US markets rallied 300 points from the opening lurch downwards. Frankly, that's hardly a basis on which to develop a medium-term bounce hypothesis.
Still, markets do not move in one direction forever - the key thing is to recognise the core trend direction and to trade in the same direction on lower timescales... until you get a heads-up regarding a likely change in direction.
Regular readers will know that my preferred 'heads up' for medium-term trend reversals involves a couple of things: a volume and breadth spike at a daily level, plus a divergence on the CCI. When such a configuration presents itself, short-term setups in the opposite direction to the dominant trend have the balance of probability in their favour.
That said - nothing of the sort has presented itself yet. There was a CCI divergence in mid-July, but no volume or breadth spike. Nobody has given up yet - which means that there will not be a sustainable bounce yet.
Almost nobody now remembers the Business Week "Death of Equities" cover story from 1979 - with the Dow under 800, a trailing PE in the single digits, and a dividend yield higher than bond yields. Now there was a contrarian indicator... it heralded a generational bull market that topped out in 2000 in the US (subsequent higher highs in US market are not valid - you've gotta adjust for inflation). Likewise, the non-stop cheerleading for housing and stocks that has not yet fully dissipated, is indicative of a generational top. Throw in a GOS share of GDP at a half-century high, and a dividend yield on major indices that is half the (government manipulated) rate of inflation, and you've got a lay-down misère... a recipe for two decades of misery in both nominal and real terms.
And we all know what happens when US banking interests feel like they might have to start paying the piper: they call in the markers that they have on political vermin, and we wind up in a global war. Whatever the propaganda reason for any war, behind it you will always find bankers.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 85.6 points (1.76%), finishing at 4957.1 points. The index hit its intraday high at the close, while the low for the day was 4871.5 at the open.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.18bn units, 3.2% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1278 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 517 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 728.7m units; decliners numbered 459 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 374.7m shares.
Of the 491 All Ordinaries components, 256 rose while 160 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.1:1, with 597.52m shares traded in gainers while 286.55m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 89.5 points (1.86%), closing out the session at 4903.8 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 4957.10 | 85.60 (1.8%) |
| ASX 20 | 2781.30 | 51.70 (1.9%) |
| ASX 50 | 4800.40 | 91.40 (1.9%) |
| ASX 100 | 3979.30 | 72.60 (1.9%) |
| ASX 200 | 4903.80 | 89.50 (1.9%) |
| ASX 300 | 4895.70 | 88.30 (1.8%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4913.80 | 65.70 (1.4%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 2753.70 | 44.20 (1.6%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 51.7 points (1.89%), closing out the session at 2781.3 points.
The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 134.6m units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 114.75m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 19.85m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Macquarie Group (MQG), +$2.00 (4.76%) to $44.01 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$4.70 (4.63%) to $106.25 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$1.53 (4.44%) to $36.00 on volume of 9.1 million shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.14 (2.5%) to $5.75 on volume of 18.4 million shares; and
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.10 (2.39%) to $4.28 on volume of 30.5 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.32 (5.53%) to $5.47 on volume of 8 million shares;
- Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.27 (1.51%) to $17.56 on volume of 6.1 million shares;
- CSL (CSL), -$0.3 (0.75%) to $39.76 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.13 (0.53%) to $24.20 on volume of 4 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) performed broadly in line with its large-cap counterpart, moving up 44.2 points (1.63%), closing out the session at 2753.7 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 116 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 64 closed lower for the session.
The 194 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 315.7m units: volume in the 116 gainers totalling 203.39m shares, with trade totalling 105.09m units in the index's 64 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Perilya (PEM), +$0.13 (60.98%) to $0.33 on volume of 10.2 million shares;
- Allco Finance Group (AFG), +$0.05 (27.27%) to $0.21 on volume of 7.6 million shares;
- Mineral Deposits (MDL), +$0.08 (15.38%) to $0.60 on volume of 500.7 thousand shares;
- Jabiru Metals (JML), +$0.04 (15.09%) to $0.31 on volume of 668.1 thousand shares; and
- Beach Petroleum (BPT), +$0.12 (14.2%) to $0.97 on volume of 15.9 million shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- City Pacific (CIY), -$0.05 (18%) to $0.21 on volume of 543.3 thousand shares;
- Centro Retail (CER), -$0.03 (14.71%) to $0.15 on volume of 15.6 million shares;
- OceanaGold Corporation (OGC), -$0.06 (12.77%) to $0.41 on volume of 283 thousand shares;
- Mintails (MLI), -$0.02 (11.76%) to $0.15 on volume of 561.4 thousand shares; and
- Sylvania Resources (SLV), -$0.15 (11.54%) to $1.15 on volume of 7.9 thousand shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4957.1 | 85.6 | 1.76 | 906.7m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 4800.4 | 91.4 | 1.94 | 315.9m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 4903.8 | 89.5 | 1.86 | 760.4m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 4895.7 | 88.3 | 1.84 | 846.6m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4913.8 | 65.7 | 1.36 | 215m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 2753.7 | 44.2 | 1.63 | 315.7m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2781.3 | 51.7 | 1.89 | 134.6m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 3979.3 | 72.6 | 1.86 | 530.9m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 16 | 75 | 145 | 256 | 116 | 517 |
| Declines | 4 | 23 | 50 | 160 | 64 | 459 |
| Advancing Volume | 114.8m | 374.5m | 522.4m | 597.5m | 203.4m | 728.7m |
| Declining Volume | 19.8m | 162.6m | 242.8m | 286.5m | 105.1m | 374.7m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.
The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 453.6 points (3.9%) to 12098.8 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 182.03m units; 34 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 165.91m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 15.18m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Perilya (PEM), +$0.13 (60.98%) to $0.33 on volume of 10.2 million shares;
- Panoramic Resources (PAN), +$0.20 (13.79%) to $1.65 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.11 (11.7%) to $1.05 on volume of 3.2 million shares;
- Aquarius Platinum (AQP), +$0.85 (10.49%) to $8.95 on volume of 383.8 thousand shares; and
- Platinum Australia (PLA), +$0.15 (8.03%) to $1.95 on volume of 663.9 thousand shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Utilities (XUJ), which gained 118.3 points (2.41%) to 5032.8 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 37.37m units; 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.12m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 27.24m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- AGL Energy (AGK), +$0.90 (6.52%) to $14.70 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
- Envestra (ENV), +$0.04 (5.07%) to $0.73 on volume of 696.7 thousand shares;
- Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund (HDF), +$0.11 (4.2%) to $2.73 on volume of 421 thousand shares;
- Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), +$0.03 (1.85%) to $1.65 on volume of 2.1 million shares; and
- Duet Group (DUE), +$0.03 (1.01%) to $3.00 on volume of 2 million shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Telecommunications (XTJ), which climbed 29 points (2.03%) to 1458.7 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 42.07m units; The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 30.46m shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 11.61m units. The gainer was the big beast of the index...
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.10 (2.39%) to $4.28 on volume of 30.5 million shares.
The only declining index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 32 points (2.13%) to 1472.7 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 150.58m units; The 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 125.72m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.19m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Centro Retail (CER), -$0.03 (14.71%) to $0.15 on volume of 15.6 million shares;
- Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), -$0.12 (6.42%) to $1.75 on volume of 609.3 thousand shares;
- Apn/Uka European Retail Property Group (AEZ), -$0.02 (6.38%) to $0.22 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.03 (6.1%) to $0.39 on volume of 6.2 million shares; and
- Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.07 (5.7%) to $1.08 on volume of 1.7 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 12098.8 | 453.6 | 3.9 | 182m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5032.8 | 118.3 | 2.41 | 37m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1458.7 | 29 | 2.03 | 42m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 4847.5 | 95.8 | 2.02 | 112m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1739.6 | 32.1 | 1.88 | 38m |
| XEJ | Energy | 16964.6 | 274.2 | 1.64 | 65m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 7338.1 | 110.4 | 1.53 | 40m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 4993.9 | 72.9 | 1.48 | 93m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 523.9 | 4.3 | 0.83 | 2m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 9587.8 | 27.1 | 0.28 | 13m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1472.7 | -32 | -2.13 | 151m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OZL | OZ Minerals Limited | 1.35 | 0.08 | 6.3 | 37.3m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation Limited. | 4.28 | 0.10 | 2.39 | 30.5m |
| DXS | Dexus Property Group | 1.48 | -0.02 | -1.33 | 22.7m |
| FGL | Foster's Group Limited | 5.75 | 0.14 | 2.5 | 18.4m |
| RJT | Rubicon Japan Trust | 0.05 | 0.00 | 7.14 | 17.2m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEM | Perilya Limited | 0.33 | 0.13 | 60.98 | 10.2m |
| IRN | Indophil Resources NL | 0.96 | 0.24 | 33.33 | 9.3m |
| AFG | Allco Finance Group Limited | 0.21 | 0.05 | 27.27 | 7.6m |
| CRE | Crescent Gold Limited | 0.12 | 0.02 | 19.79 | 477k |
| MDL | Mineral Deposits Limited | 0.60 | 0.08 | 15.38 | 500.7k |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIY | City Pacific Limited | 0.21 | -0.05 | -18 | 543.3k |
| CER | Centro Retail | 0.15 | -0.03 | -14.71 | 15.6m |
| AXQ | Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust | 0.06 | -0.01 | -13.24 | 384.4k |
| OGC | OceanaGold Corporation | 0.41 | -0.06 | -12.77 | 283k |
| ARR | Arasor International Limited | 0.07 | -0.01 | -12.5 | 100.8k |
