Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, September 22, 2008

OZRant: Mr Hankie's Bounce Won't Last...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

It would be just terrific if the ASX produced timely data on short interest - you know, say, a daily list of short interest in all shortable stocks. They produce a file that they claim is daily short interest, but if you examine it, you will find that the numbers only change once a week. Are the ASX honestly claiming that clearing houses only report short interest changes once a week?

Anyhow - the reason it would be neat to have genuine, reliable daily short interest data, is to show that short interest as a proportion of shares issued is small - the largest proportion (as at September 18th) was 2.72% for Challenger Financial (CGF). Only two other stocks - Seven Network (SEV) and Toll Holdings (TOL) - had short interest greater than 2%.

Now, if you had a clever little tool that showed you the relative merits of stocks in an index, and also showed you comparative price changes over given periods of time, you would see that for example, SEV, despite having a 'huge' 2.6% short interest, is not the biggest decliner in its sector on any timeframe up to a year.  (YTD, seven out of 24 stocks in the XDJ have performed worse than SEV).

In any case, the whole 'short sellers as sacrificial goat' sham is simply one leg of the propaganda effort to try and make the world swallow another trillion (at least) dollars of US debt. 

Speaking of trillions of dollars... as with the initial guesstimates of the cost of the 'subprime' mess, estimates of the costs of the last week are woefully low - deliberately so, in order to at least try and gull the public that this is not a huge payday for the banksters.

Every single cent that the US government spends 'sequestering' unwanted bank assets will eventually be lost. Every single cent - because the moment the government buys them their intrinsic value will fall to zero cents on the dollar. 

Why? Simple.

These assets only existed to inflate the capital bases of the banks and financials. They are fiction.

Before anybody babbles on about how these things are all just composites of mortgages, plus contracts for default insurance on those composites, plus plus plus... wait. Because if you wait, you will find that the next big story is that if you add up all the little slices of all the mortgages in those bundles, it turns out that each mortgage appears in the sum-total at more than 100% of its initial present value. That is, the same $100k mortgage (with a present value of about $240k) will somehow have added $500k - $700k to the aggregate. 

Furthermore, about a third of mortgages may now be unenforceable: simply put, there may actually be no owner of the mortgage anymore (at least, nobody who can present themselves as plaintiff in a default proceeding). 

This has already been found by at least three different courts: the person claiming to be justly entitled to repossess a house, was challenged to produce the mortgage document bearing their name, or failing that, a deed of assignment. They couldn't, so the repossession was thrown out of court. As more people become aware that their mortgage is probably in the same situation, you will find that many people who would normally walk to the repossession gallows, will lawyer up and fight the repossession... and win.

And last but not least - in thinking about Friday's donation from the Cancer Fairy: Mr Hankie wants his new trillion dollar gift to US banks to be immune from regulatory and judicial oversight or review. 

The balls on this guy... he wants the largest blank cheque in history for him and his cronies - a tenth of US GDP. And he wants legislation preventing anybody from suing him or Treasury - regardless of how badly they screw things up.

They ought to move Lenin's Tomb to Washington to symbolically recognise the surrender of the US to Lenin's view of the world. Anybody who believes that Paulson's plan will rescue global financial markets ought to be forced to make a pilgrimage to gaze upon his waxy visage.            

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 179.4 points (3.71%), finishing at 5020.1 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5050.1 at 4:12 pm, while the low for the day was 4840.7 - set at 11:00 am Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.45bn units, 3.5% above its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1343 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 695 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 978.9m units; decliners numbered 373 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 364.1m shares.

Of the 490 All Ordinaries components, 299 rose while 140 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3.2:1, with 836.95m shares traded in gainers while 259.5m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - hurtled skyward to the tune of 183.7 points (3.82%), closing out the session at 4987.8 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 5020.10 179.40 (3.7%)
ASX 20 2874.70 130.00 (4.7%)
ASX 50 4931.00 205.70 (4.4%)
ASX 100 4068.50 157.70 (4.0%)
ASX 200 4987.80 183.70 (3.8%)
ASX 300 4975.50 181.80 (3.8%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 4872.40 89.70 (1.9%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2644.80 40.20 (1.5%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 130 points (4.74%), closing out the session at 2874.7 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 17 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 3 closed lower for the session. The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 206.48m units; 17 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 125.63m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 80.84m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$3.58 (10.11%) to $38.98 on volume of 22.2 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$8.30 (8.18%) to $109.80 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$1.29 (7.28%) to $19.00 on volume of 17.8 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), +$0.64 (7.03%) to $9.74 on volume of 5 million shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$1.44 (6.26%) to $24.44 on volume of 10.9 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • CSL (CSL), -$1.3 (3.33%) to $37.70 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.1 (2.42%) to $4.03 on volume of 69.5 million shares; and
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.06 (1.12%) to $5.32 on volume of 8.6 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) which significantly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords still performed solidly, in moving up 40.2 points (1.54%), closing out the session at 2644.8 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 113 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 70 closed lower for the session.

The 194 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 364.07m units: volume in the 113 gainers totalling 270.21m shares, with trade totalling 84.39m units in the index's 70 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), +$0.03 (41.67%) to $0.09 on volume of 45.9 million shares;
  • City Pacific (CIY), +$0.04 (23.33%) to $0.19 on volume of 171.6 thousand shares;
  • Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.02 (20%) to $0.12 on volume of 12.1 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.05 (17.86%) to $0.33 on volume of 3.7 million shares; and
  • Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.20 (17.65%) to $1.30 on volume of 4.5 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Rubicon Japan Trust (RJT), -$0.02 (30%) to $0.04 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.07 (8.97%) to $0.71 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • Macquarie Media Group (MMG), -$0.27 (8.65%) to $2.85 on volume of 569.7 thousand shares;
  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.01 (8.33%) to $0.11 on volume of 13.8 million shares; and
  • Citigold Corporation (CTO), -$0.02 (8%) to $0.23 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 5020.1 179.4 3.71 1138m
XFL ASX 50 4931 205.7 4.35 452.7m
XJO ASX 200 4987.8 183.7 3.82 992.1m
XKO ASX 300 4975.5 181.8 3.79 1082.3m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 4872.4 89.7 1.88 265.5m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2644.8 40.2 1.54 364.1m
XTL ASX 20 2874.7 130 4.74 206.5m
XTO ASX 100 4068.5 157.7 4.03 718.2m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 17 72 127 299 113 695
Declines 3 26 67 140 70 373
Advancing Volume 125.6m 533.3m 736.3m 836.9m 270.2m 978.9m
Declining Volume 80.8m 168m 234.7m 259.5m 84.4m 364.1m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the outcome favoured the upside, but only just - the 6 advancing sectors just triumphed the 5 losing sectors.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 1011.5 points (8.47%) to 12951.7 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 228.67m units; 36 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 212.68m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 15.99m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), +$1.37 (24.04%) to $7.07 on volume of 14.4 million shares;
  • Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.20 (17.65%) to $1.30 on volume of 4.5 million shares;
  • Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX), +$0.21 (17.21%) to $1.43 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • Atlas Iron (AGO), +$0.26 (16.67%) to $1.79 on volume of 2.2 million shares; and
  • Great Southern (GTP), +$0.06 (16.22%) to $0.43 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which gained 222.6 points (4.54%) to 5122.5 points. The 30 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 137.03m units; 22 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 123.7m shares, while the 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 13.33m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Babcock & Brown (BNB), +$0.45 (55.97%) to $1.24 on volume of 13.5 million shares;
  • Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.20 (9.05%) to $2.41 on volume of 7.6 million shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$1.29 (7.28%) to $19.00 on volume of 17.8 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), +$0.64 (7.03%) to $9.74 on volume of 5 million shares; and
  • Babcock and Brown Capital (BCM), +$0.16 (6.69%) to $2.55 on volume of 928.7 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Property Trusts (XPJ), which climbed 58.8 points (3.97%) to 1540.5 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 242.96m units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 207.67m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 35.3m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), +$0.03 (41.67%) to $0.09 on volume of 45.9 million shares;
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.05 (17.86%) to $0.33 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Apn/Uka European Retail Property Group (AEZ), +$0.03 (16.67%) to $0.18 on volume of 7.3 million shares;
  • Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), +$0.09 (9.77%) to $0.96 on volume of 17.6 million shares; and
  • Dexus Property Group (DXS), +$0.13 (8.33%) to $1.63 on volume of 20 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Telecommunications (XTJ), which dipped 26.4 points (1.88%) to 1379.5 points. The 3 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 77.65m units; The declining stock traded 69.48m units, and 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.17m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.10 (2.42%) to $4.03 on volume of 69.5 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 174.1 points (1.87%) to 9142.9 points. The 8 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 11.01m units; The 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.44m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 5.57m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL (CSL), -$1.30 (3.33%) to $37.70 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • ResMed Inc. (RMD), -$0.11 (1.96%) to $5.49 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.19 (1.6%) to $11.71 on volume of 546 thousand shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), -$0.02 (0.46%) to $4.30 on volume of 440.7 thousand shares; and
  • Cochlear (COH), -$0.26 (0.46%) to $56.34 on volume of 205.3 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Utilities (XUJ), which slid 56.2 points (1.22%) to 4551.5 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 51.18m units; The 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 10.55m units, and 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 39.78m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund (HDF), -$0.12 (4.58%) to $2.50 on volume of 387.5 thousand shares;
  • Duet Group (DUE), -$0.1 (3.75%) to $2.57 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • APA Group (APA), -$0.07 (2.15%) to $3.18 on volume of 882.4 thousand shares;
  • AGL Energy (AGK), -$0.27 (2.06%) to $12.86 on volume of 1.7 million shares; and
  • Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), -$0.03 (1.57%) to $1.57 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XMJ Materials 12951.7 1011.5 8.47 229m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 5122.5 222.6 4.54 137m
XPJ Property Trusts 1540.5 58.8 3.97 243m
XEJ Energy 17081.6 454.3 2.73 43m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7275 46.9 0.65 30m
XNJ Industrials 4638.7 19.2 0.42 115m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1675.9 -5.5 -0.33 59m
XIJ Information Technology 500.7 -3.9 -0.77 4m
XUJ Utilities 4551.5 -56.2 -1.22 51m
XHJ Healthcare 9142.9 -174.1 -1.87 11m
XTJ Telecommunications 1379.5 -26.4 -1.88 78m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.03 -0.10 -2.42 69.5m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.09 0.03 41.67 45.9m
OZL OZ Minerals Limited 1.62 0.17 11.76 35.8m
LGL Lihir Gold Limited 2.62 0.17 6.94 26.2m
GPT GPT Group 2.04 0.14 7.37 25m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BNB Babcock & Brown Limited 1.24 0.45 55.97 13.5m
CNP Centro Properties Group 0.09 0.03 41.67 45.9m
CEG CEC Group Limited 0.17 0.04 30.77 14.5k
FMG Fortescue Metals Group Ltd 7.07 1.37 24.04 14.4m
CIY City Pacific Limited 0.19 0.04 23.33 171.6k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
RJT Rubicon Japan Trust 0.04 -0.02 -30 1.9m
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.05 -0.01 -23.33 490.8k
AGG Anglogold Limited 5.50 -0.62 -10.13 0.5k
VPG Valad Property Group 0.29 -0.03 -9.52 14.2m
HFA HFA Holdings Limited 0.71 -0.07 -8.97 1.6m