Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, September 18, 2008

OZRant: No Saviour...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

You might think that today is the cleansing purge that clears the decks. I disagree: as I have said several times these last few weeks, no medium-term bottom will be achieved while everybody is still looking for it. And mark my words, everybody in the Strayan market is looking to be the guy who bought the bottom.

You just need to look to look at an intraday chart to confirm this: sure, the All Ords was down 2.5% and advance-decline stats favoured losers by over 4:1. Sure, volume breadth favoured losers by almost 4:1 (and 10:1 in the top 20). Sure seems like the nuffie cliff-dive that signals a washout.

But... the market couldn't help itself.

Ask yourself if the market closed with its hands over its ears, saying "Make it stop, Mummy... make the bad man go 'way" - no it didn't.

In fact more than 1/3 of the day's intraday decline was recovered in last 90 minutes leading into the close.

Hope springs eternal, you see: everybody thinks that Helichopper Bernanke and Hankie Paulson have the ability to resolve this debacle... using the same type of policy (nationalisation and money-printing) favoured by Robert Mugabe... and we all know how just well Rhodesia is working out.

I keep harping on about the Cold War - the massive transfer of tax dollars that was undertaken supposedly to protect us from people who wanted to encourage an experiment with government ownership of capital. These folks were supposedly going to introduce a surveillance state in which the State was able to get all up in our stuff. Aren't we lucky that the trillions of dollars raped from taxpayers stopped those things from happening... oh, wait.

And the death toll in Vietnam alone - as scum like John 'Collaborator' McCain rained death from the sky onto peasant farmers in order to prevent them from exercising a right to stuff up their own economy - was greater than the events in Occupied Europe for which everybody has to pay homage to Tel Aviv.

The Vietnamese weren't going around telling everybody that a Sky Wizard told them that they were superior to everyone else - they just wanted to have a play with the socialisation of the means of production. It would have led to a reduction in living standards for the urban majority, but it ought to have been their right to give it a go and discover that it didn't work. Instead, they were torn to bits in their millions by the US government, for the specific purpose of preventing them from undertaking that experiment. I am sure that the 4-5 million dead are grateful they didn't have to live through the counterfactual - a lower standard of living under a Communist regime.

What's that? They had a Communist regime for the last thirty years and it resulted in no perceivable change in their living standards relative to non-Communist neighbours? Well, then the slaughtered millions will just have to be happy (and grateful) that the Yanks enabled them to live up to the American slogan... Better Dead than Red.

Note - In referring to the internment and maltreatment of El's Chosen during the latter half of WWII, I'm not defending the oppression of an entire religious group just for possessing a form of mental illness that manifests itself in a superiority complex... I'm just making a comparison between historical episodes in which the State has engaged in its secondary pursuit - butchery. One ofthose episodes was undertaken by a corrupt regime led by a closet homosexual who was being blackmailed by foreign intelligence ... the other was led, as we know, by Hitler. The Yank government has killed more people since WWII, than were killed during WWII: their civilian body count now rivals Stalin's and is on the way to beating Mao. 

And for what? So that filthy scum like Prick Cheney can divert tax receipts to their chums.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 117.8 points (2.47%), finishing at 4651.9 points - its lowest close since December 20th 2005. The index hit an intraday high of 4769.7 at 10:00 am, while the low for the day was 4575.5 - set at 2:23 pm Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.6bn units, 109.7% above its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1459 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 232 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 537.6m units; decliners numbered 998 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 1.95bn shares.

Of the 490 All Ordinaries components, 80 rose while 365 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 3.4:1, with 454.3m shares traded in gainers while 1.56bn shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - got hammered pretty hard losing 114.9 points (2.43%), closing out the session at 4607.3 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 4651.90 -117.80 (2.5%)
ASX 20 2611.80 -67.10 (2.5%)
ASX 50 4509.90 -108.30 (2.3%)
ASX 100 3742.30 -92.10 (2.4%)
ASX 200 4607.30 -114.90 (2.4%)
ASX 300 4598.40 -114.90 (2.4%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 4650.20 -131.10 (2.7%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2557.00 -73.10 (2.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - got the tar kicked out of it, sliding 67.1 points (2.5%) and closing at 2611.8 points. Thats the lowest close for the Top 20 since January 23 2006.

The 20 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 399.92m units; 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 35.62m shares, while the 16 decliners had volume traded totalling 364.3m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.09 (1.68%) to $5.45 on volume of 15.7 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.38 (1.58%) to $24.50 on volume of 8.7 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.36 (1.26%) to $28.99 on volume of 7 million shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.34 (0.67%) to $51.40 on volume of 4.2 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$7.88 (23.22%) to $26.05 on volume of 18.6 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.51 (5.76%) to $8.35 on volume of 27.3 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.1 (5.31%) to $19.60 on volume of 31.4 million shares;
  • St George Bank (SGB), -$1.56 (5.17%) to $28.59 on volume of 5.3 million shares; and
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$1.01 (4.39%) to $22.00 on volume of 24.6 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) fell quite a bit harder than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 73.1 points (2.78%), closing out the session at 2557 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 35 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 145 closed lower for the session.

The 194 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 617.21m units: volume in the 35 gainers totalling 147.18m shares, with trade totalling 455.54m units in the index's 145 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Sino Gold Mining (SGX), +$0.80 (22.54%) to $4.35 on volume of 4.3 million shares;
  • St Barbara (SBM), +$0.05 (20.83%) to $0.29 on volume of 28.8 million shares;
  • Deep Yellow (DYL), +$0.04 (15.56%) to $0.26 on volume of 47.1 million shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), +$0.21 (12%) to $1.96 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.47 (10.93%) to $4.77 on volume of 3.3 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), -$0.02 (33.33%) to $0.03 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • Rubicon Europe Trust Group (REU), -$0.01 (29.73%) to $0.03 on volume of 1.1 million shares;
  • Great Southern (GTP), -$0.1 (24.69%) to $0.31 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
  • Record Realty (RRT), -$0.01 (21.74%) to $0.02 on volume of 422.6 thousand shares; and
  • Compass Resources (CMR), -$0.11 (17.46%) to $0.52 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 4651.9 -117.8 -2.47 2058.9m
XFL ASX 50 4509.9 -108.3 -2.35 818.6m
XJO ASX 200 4607.3 -114.9 -2.43 1809.8m
XKO ASX 300 4598.4 -114.9 -2.44 1959.2m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 4650.2 -131.1 -2.74 523.3m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2557 -73.1 -2.78 617.2m
XTL ASX 20 2611.8 -67.1 -2.5 399.9m
XTO ASX 100 3742.3 -92.1 -2.4 1341.9m
Market Breadth
Advances 4 15 31 80 35 232
Declines 16 82 161 365 145 998
Advancing Volume 35.6m 296.9m 376.5m 454.3m 147.2m 537.6m
Declining Volume 364.3m 1.04b 1.42b 1.56b 455.5m 1.95bn
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the "Win" column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors... on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was Industrials (XNJ), which dipped 206.7 points (4.44%) to 4446 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 254.3m units; The 28 decliners had volume traded totalling 236.69m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 17.61m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Airports (MAP), -$0.36 (13.95%) to $2.22 on volume of 23.8 million shares;
  • Virgin Blue Holdings (VBA), -$0.06 (11.11%) to $0.44 on volume of 20.3 million shares;
  • Downer EDI (DOW), -$0.73 (10.2%) to $6.43 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX), -$0.24 (9.52%) to $2.28 on volume of 2.9 million shares; and
  • Bradken (BKN), -$1 (9.35%) to $9.70 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 191.5 points (4.11%) to 4463 points. The 30 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 278.78m units; The 25 decliners had volume traded totalling 261.45m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 17.33m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$7.88 (23.22%) to $26.05 on volume of 18.6 million shares;
  • Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.16 (17.39%) to $0.76 on volume of 21.6 million shares;
  • Australian Wealth Mgt (AUW), -$0.16 (11.44%) to $1.20 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
  • Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), -$0.25 (10.78%) to $2.07 on volume of 12.4 million shares; and
  • HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.09 (10.71%) to $0.75 on volume of 6.3 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Information Technology (XIJ), which slid 15.9 points (3.09%) to 499.1 points. There are only two stock in the index: both fell and in the course of doing so they traded a total of 6.08m units. 

  • Iress Market Technology (IRE), -$0.38 (6.21%) to $5.74 on volume of 1.6 million shares; and
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.24 (2.65%) to $8.80 on volume of 4.4 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XSJ Consumer Staples 7248.9 -43.9 -0.6 78m
XTJ Telecommunications 1395.4 -13.1 -0.93 114m
XMJ Materials 11773.4 -148.8 -1.25 381m
XPJ Property Trusts 1384.8 -22.8 -1.62 319m
XEJ Energy 16013.9 -271.2 -1.67 103m
XHJ Healthcare 9373.3 -237.9 -2.48 23m
XUJ Utilities 4715.8 -144.2 -2.97 150m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1624.4 -50.8 -3.03 123m
XIJ Information Technology 499.1 -15.9 -3.09 6m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4463 -191.5 -4.11 279m
XNJ Industrials 4446 -206.7 -4.44 254m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.09 -0.05 -1.21 97.6m
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.26 0.01 1.96 78.1m
MIG Macquarie Infrastructure Group 1.95 -0.10 -4.88 54.5m
LGL Lihir Gold Limited 2.48 0.34 15.89 49.7m
DYL Deep Yellow Limited 0.26 0.04 15.56 47.1m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
SGX Sino Gold Mining Limited 4.35 0.80 22.54 4.3m
SBM St Barbara Limited 0.29 0.05 20.83 28.8m
MAFCA Multiplex Prime Property Fund 0.35 0.05 16.67 28.5k
LGL Lihir Gold Limited 2.48 0.34 15.89 49.7m
DYL Deep Yellow Limited 0.26 0.04 15.56 47.1m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
RAT Rubicon America Trust 0.03 -0.02 -33.33 2.1m
REU Rubicon Europe Trust Group 0.03 -0.01 -29.73 1.1m
GTP Great Southern Limited 0.31 -0.10 -24.69 6.2m
ARR Arasor International Limited 0.05 -0.02 -24.24 287.2k
MQG Macquarie Group Limited 26.05 -7.88 -23.22 18.6m