Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, October 06, 2008

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Ha. Bloody clocks, trying to sneak an hour off me. Funny thing is, it happens every single year - I get blindsided by the stupid switch to (from) Daylight Savings Time. It's bad enough that I go through life being surprised - year after year - that people know when summer starts. Me, I don't have any idea - regardless of which hemisphere I'm in.

So at present it's getting colder here - the first dustings of snow are on the hills nearby. Next year, if anybody was to ask me when the snow started to fall, or what the weather was like in October, you can bet I will not be able to tell them. 

I remember one year it poured with rain on Christmas day in Ballan, but I only remember it because we were at The Lovely's Parents' property and the gutters were overflowing and I got up to unclog them. 

At least I think it was Christmas Day...  

But the point is - half the time I couldn't tell you where I was during a given year, let alone what the weather is supposed to be like in a particular bit of the year near a particular bit of the planet.

Some of my fondest winter memories involve sitting above the conditioning bins in the smuts at Bunge, falling slowly into a lovely warm sleep as the damp wheat in the bins gave off abundant heat. I was always slightly shocked when the shift ended and I would walk to my bike and the dawn would be cold.

Or riding my RZ across the the causeway at midnight on my way to the smuts, wearing a balaclava and my favourite black Benetton cashmere scarf under my helmet (an AGV, which I didn't like ... I later got a Shoei which was the evil-est helment ever). I was always warm

And oddly enough, if you held a gun to my head and gave me three seconds to tell you what year it was, I would not have a shit's show in hell. It was the eighties - maybe '84, and definitely not as late as '86. Sure it was winter, but no idea what month it was.     

Hmph. Odd how the memory plays tricks. I just remembered that I could not possibly have worn that scarf and the AGV helmet at the same time. I was given the scarf by a girl I met after the accident - in which half the AGV was abraded away by the road. No wonder the month eludes me - I didn't have that scarf until I had a new bike (an RG250-R... the RZ was a twisted piece of wreckage) and of course with the RG came the Shoei helmet. 

Anyway - the only reason that I know that the clocks must have gone back (forward? sideways? Who cares.) in Straya is because I was checking something on another site, and I noticed that the intraday chart on that site had already finished the day's session on the ASX. This came as a shock to me, because it was just after 7 a.m. here - an hour early.

So there is an odd synchronicity that, starting tomorrow, I'm going to be back at the helm of the subscription site. The past month and a bit has been diabolical - negotiations with venture capitalists are always tedious, and in this market it's even less fun - but the deal is now done and I've managed to get a decent valuation attached to it. The cash injection will help pay for the translation (I'll do the bulk myself, but will pay someone to do a final read-over of the entire thing so that it doesn't get a slot on the French or German versions of

Now let's all put on our surprised faces ... the Tycoons' Whores of the US Congress not only dropped to their knees - as was obviously always going to happen - but they have already loaded another $150 billion of grift into the new version. 

So how come the US dollar is not weaker (except against the Yen)? Sure, the Euro-zone is flailing around with its own problems, but the Eurozone economy is in far better shape than the US. For a start it has a much smaller external deficit. 

So short the USD - preferably by opening a long Euro position: if Euro doesn't bounce 3 cents against USD in the next week, you may call me Meyer.

Now you'll remember the last 'You may call me Meyer' declaration: it was in Platinum back when Platinum was above $2000 an ounce, and I declared that it would fall. Platinum is now $957 an ounce, and is, as I have said several times, the harbinger of things to come in the Precious Metals. Once I get back to Rant Central (soon to be renamed Mentat Central) and get a few residual subscription stuffups fixed, I will write a nice detailed blather on the Precious Metals patch for the subscriber site - there is a small fortune in Platinum over the next six months, but it will require both a short and a long position (but not necessarily in that order).

And one final toot - how timely was the 'close the bond short and the Dow/SPI long' the other day? Plenty of time to get out with every cent of the profit. now that is what is meant by risk management.  

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 158.1 points (3.36%), finishing at 4544.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4702.8 at 10:40 am, while the low for the day was 4525.7 - set at 1:30 pm Sydney time. The close is the lowest since December 13th 2005, and the low is the lowest intraday low since December 9th of the same year.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 634.6m units, 55.8% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1154 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 166 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 41.7m units; decliners numbered 774 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 528.9m shares.

Of the 496 All Ordinaries components, 61 rose while 364 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 14.7:1, with 27.03m shares traded in gainers while 397.42m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - dipped pretty savagely,rather savagely, losing 155 points (3.3%), closing out the session at 4540.4 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 4544.70 -158.10 (3.4%)
ASX 20 2652.70 -75.40 (2.8%)
ASX 50 4509.40 -143.70 (3.1%)
ASX 100 3714.60 -122.00 (3.2%)
ASX 200 4540.40 -155.00 (3.3%)
ASX 300 4526.80 -155.20 (3.3%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 4399.00 -174.70 (3.8%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 2324.80 -113.20 (4.6%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - copped a bit of a kicking, sliding 75.4 points (2.76%), closing out the session at 2652.7 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 78.87m units; 3 index components rose (and one of the three gainers only gained one cent), with rising volume amounting to 10.54m shares. The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 68.34m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), +$0.40 (3.75%) to $11.08 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.07 (0.26%) to $27.40 on volume of 2.3 million shares; and
  • Brambles (BXB), +$0.01 (0.13%) to $7.51 on volume of 2.6 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$4.1 (10.49%) to $35.00 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.36 (6.36%) to $5.30 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • CSL (CSL), -$2.57 (6.33%) to $38.00 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$1.06 (5.87%) to $17.00 on volume of 4.8 million shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$4.43 (4.98%) to $84.48 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the small end of the market had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 113.2 points (4.64%), closing out the session at 2324.8 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 27 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 163 closed lower for the session.

The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 166.42m units: volume in the 27 gainers totalling 11.39m shares, with trade totalling 148.16m units in the index's 163 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.00 (13.33%) to $0.03 on volume of 183.7 thousand shares;
  • Citigold Corporation (CTO), +$0.02 (7.5%) to $0.22 on volume of 606.7 thousand shares;
  • Aspen Group (APZ), +$0.07 (6.19%) to $1.12 on volume of 53.6 thousand shares;
  • City Pacific (CIY), +$0.01 (5.41%) to $0.20 on volume of 175.1 thousand shares; and
  • Wattyl (WYL), +$0.06 (5.26%) to $1.20 on volume of 24.5 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Albidon (ALB), -$0.32 (26.78%) to $0.88 on volume of 74.9 thousand shares;
  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.85 (18.2%) to $3.82 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Giralia Resources NL (GIR), -$0.16 (17.78%) to $0.74 on volume of 163.1 thousand shares;
  • Industrea (IDL), -$0.06 (16.92%) to $0.27 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
  • Deep Yellow (DYL), -$0.04 (16.67%) to $0.18 on volume of 1.3 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 4544.7 -158.1 -3.36 453.7m
XFL ASX 50 4509.4 -143.7 -3.09 158.7m
XJO ASX 200 4540.4 -155 -3.3 321.3m
XKO ASX 300 4526.8 -155.2 -3.31 408.1m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 4399 -174.7 -3.82 87.1m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 2324.8 -113.2 -4.64 162.4m
XTL ASX 20 2652.7 -75.4 -2.76 76.8m
XTO ASX 100 3714.6 -122 -3.18 245.8m
Market Breadth
Advances 3 5 12 61 27 166
Declines 18 96 188 364 163 774
Advancing Volume 10.5m 13m 19.8m 27m 11.4m 41.7m
Declining Volume 68.3m 231m 306.9m 397.4m 148.2m 528.9m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the "Win" column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors... on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 74.9 points (5.25%) to 1351.5 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 50.79m units; The 20 decliners had volume traded totalling 48.97m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 1.82m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.09 (9.09%) to $0.90 on volume of 4 million shares;
  • Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.03 (8.93%) to $0.26 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.01 (8.79%) to $0.08 on volume of 6 million shares;
  • Centro Retail (CER), -$0.01 (8.7%) to $0.11 on volume of 2.6 million shares; and
  • Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.03 (8.62%) to $0.27 on volume of 748.9 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Energy (XEJ), which slid 796.6 points (5.04%) to 14998.3 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 27.81m units; The 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 27.81m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 0m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), -$0.85 (18.2%) to $3.82 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Felix Resources (FLX), -$2.52 (15.48%) to $13.76 on volume of 446.8 thousand shares;
  • Gloucester Coal (GCL), -$0.88 (13.75%) to $5.52 on volume of 550.5 thousand shares;
  • Riversdale Mining (RIV), -$0.96 (11.59%) to $7.32 on volume of 529.5 thousand shares; and
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), -$2.86 (9.94%) to $25.90 on volume of 930.7 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 486.2 points (5.01%) to 9213.4 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 5.12m units; The 7 decliners had volume traded totalling 3.33m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 1.67m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • CSL (CSL), -$2.57 (6.33%) to $38.00 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), -$0.27 (5.87%) to $4.33 on volume of 208.7 thousand shares;
  • Primary Health Care (PRY), -$0.24 (4.73%) to $4.83 on volume of 148.2 thousand shares;
  • Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), -$0.06 (4.41%) to $1.30 on volume of 792 thousand shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), -$0.63 (4.41%) to $13.65 on volume of 303 thousand shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XIJ Information Technology 515.4 -5.2 -1 1m
XTJ Telecommunications 1465.8 -24 -1.61 24m
XSJ Consumer Staples 7127.5 -166.1 -2.28 15m
XNJ Industrials 4276.4 -114.1 -2.6 40m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4968.6 -140.9 -2.76 37m
XUJ Utilities 4675.3 -146.6 -3.04 12m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1510.4 -52.9 -3.38 18m
XMJ Materials 10228.4 -378.5 -3.57 103m
XHJ Healthcare 9213.4 -486.2 -5.01 5m
XEJ Energy 14998.3 -796.6 -5.04 28m
XPJ Property Trusts 1351.5 -74.9 -5.25 51m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.05 0.00 -1.82 36m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 4.32 -0.06 -1.37 22.5m
OZL OZ Minerals Limited 1.38 -0.11 -7.07 13.8m
FMG Fortescue Metals Group Ltd 4.41 -0.56 -11.27 12.5m
TMR Tamaya Resources Limited 0.01 0.00 0 12m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
FAN Fantastic Holdings Limited 2.48 0.33 15.35 10.5k
RAT Rubicon America Trust 0.03 0.00 13.33 183.7k
MLX Metals X Limited 0.18 0.02 12.5 479.3k
WVL Windimurra Vanadium Limited 1.30 0.13 11.11 42.8k
CTO Citigold Corporation Limited 0.22 0.02 7.5 606.7k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ALB Albidon Limited 0.88 -0.32 -26.78 74.9k
LNC Linc Energy Ltd 3.82 -0.85 -18.2 2m
CEG CEC Group Limited 0.27 -0.06 -18.18 47.7k
GIR Giralia Resources NL 0.74 -0.16 -17.78 163.1k
TRY Troy Resources NL 1.02 -0.22 -17.74 80k