Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

OzRant: Hope on a Rope...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The last time the All Ordinaries set an intraday low under 3700: back on October 26th, 2004, when the intraday low was half a point above today's low. The close on that date was 3718 - in other words the market managed to crawl up 24 points between the low and the close.

Compare that to today - as soon as the re-test of 3700 held, the market shot skywards in the last hour, adding 60 points in that time.

I'm going to use all the text attributes now - just so that we are all quite clear.

Markets that bounce that eagerly off intraday lows are NOT showing bearish sentiment. 

And without a genuine flush of bearish sentiment, we cannot hope to put in a workable low.

The entire US financial system is now being socialised, and the Yen and other Asian currencies are unstoppable. This is interesting.

It is interesting because of the core driver of USD strength - the repatriation of cash reserves of US-based enterprises, in order to compensate for the inability of firms to issue commercial paper. In other words, US firms cannot pay their bills using US-generated cash flow, and in the ordinary course of events they would enter the commercial paper market. 

The commercial paper market is pretty much shut now, so US firms are having to transfer foreign-domiciled cash holdings into the US - and thus bidding up the USD.

Now... why is the YEN so strong? Hint: a very similar scenario - except that Japanese firms are repatriating out of USD because the US commercial paper market is dead. Better for them to convert their USD holdings into Yen.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - declined gently, dropping 12.9 points (0.34%), finishing at 3755.4 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3763.2 at 3:40 pm, while the low for the day was 3693.9 - set at 12:22 pm Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.37bn units, 12.9% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1196 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 283 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 549.4m units; decliners numbered 696 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 692.6m shares.

Of the 494 All Ordinaries components, 110 rose while 315 fell. Aggregate volume within the All Ords was evenly split - 491.81m shares traded in gainers while 502.55m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SPI Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell mildly, losing 14.6 points (0.38%), closing out the session at 3794.6 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3755.40 -12.90 (0.3%)
ASX 20 2297.40 -3.70 (0.2%)
ASX 50 3837.30 -2.60 (0.1%)
ASX 100 3134.80 -2.80 (0.1%)
ASX 200 3794.60 -14.60 (0.4%)
ASX 300 3770.80 -15.10 (0.4%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3498.10 -9.40 (0.3%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1683.20 -67.30 (3.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - slid modestly, falling 3.7 points (0.16%), closing out the session at 2297.4 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 135.22m units; 8 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 39.68m shares, while the 12 decliners had volume traded totalling 89.11m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$3.60 (5.57%) to $68.25 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.76 (3.09%) to $25.36 on volume of 13.9 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.51 (2.55%) to $20.50 on volume of 7.5 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), +$0.51 (1.89%) to $27.51 on volume of 2.3 million shares; and
  • St George Bank (SGB), +$0.43 (1.63%) to $26.82 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.45 (5.66%) to $7.50 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$1.04 (5.26%) to $18.75 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
  • AMP (AMP), -$0.28 (5.11%) to $5.20 on volume of 7.9 million shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$1.02 (4.26%) to $22.90 on volume of 6.8 million shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.64 (2.55%) to $24.45 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - which had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 67.3 points (3.84%), closing out the session at 1683.2 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 41 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 146 closed lower for the session.

The 207 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 322.24m units: volume in the 41 gainers totalling 101.08m shares, with trade totalling 179.72m units in the index's 146 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Becton Property Group (BEC), +$0.08 (53.33%) to $0.23 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Sunshine Gas (SHG), +$1.06 (42.23%) to $3.57 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Admiralty Resources NL (ADY), +$0.01 (25%) to $0.03 on volume of 23.4 million shares;
  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), +$0.04 (20%) to $0.21 on volume of 21.8 million shares; and
  • Compass Resources (CMR), +$0.04 (18.6%) to $0.26 on volume of 338.2 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), -$0.13 (18.25%) to $0.56 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Macquarie Media Group (MMG), -$0.26 (17.93%) to $1.19 on volume of 573.4 thousand shares;
  • Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CXC), -$0.15 (17.44%) to $0.71 on volume of 173.4 thousand shares;
  • Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), -$0.08 (16.67%) to $0.40 on volume of 7 million shares; and
  • Babcock & Brown Communities Group (BBC), -$0.04 (16.33%) to $0.21 on volume of 761.8 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3755.4 -12.9 -0.34 1089.4m
XFL ASX 50 3837.3 -2.6 -0.07 372.4m
XJO ASX 200 3794.6 -14.6 -0.38 898.7m
XKO ASX 300 3770.8 -15.1 -0.4 1019.7m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3498.1 -9.4 -0.27 331.1m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1683.2 -67.3 -3.84 316.2m
XTL ASX 20 2297.4 -3.7 -0.16 130.7m
XTO ASX 100 3134.8 -2.8 -0.09 703.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 8 37 53 110 41 283
Declines 12 60 143 315 146 696
Advancing Volume 39.7m 367.8m 420.7m 491.8m 101.1m 549.4m
Declining Volume 89.1m 292m 430.8m 502.6m 179.7m 692.6m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, 3 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 8 lost ground.

The best performing index was Energy (XEJ), which added 279.5 points (2.46%) to 11624.3 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 159.05m units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 137.51m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 18.89m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Queensland Gas Company (QGC), +$2.55 (79.69%) to $5.75 on volume of 113.2 million shares;
  • Nexus Energy (NXS), +$0.05 (10.71%) to $0.47 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.25 (7.94%) to $3.40 on volume of 6.6 million shares;
  • Energy Resources Of Australia (ERA), +$0.67 (5.93%) to $11.97 on volume of 299.3 thousand shares; and
  • Linc Energy Ltd (LNC), +$0.12 (5.26%) to $2.40 on volume of 3.9 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Materials (XMJ), which gained 182.3 points (2.34%) to 7976 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 190.08m units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 119.27m shares, while the 26 decliners had volume traded totalling 53.32m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • PanAust Ltd (PNA), +$0.04 (20%) to $0.21 on volume of 21.8 million shares;
  • Perilya (PEM), +$0.01 (7.14%) to $0.15 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
  • James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX), +$0.25 (5.95%) to $4.45 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$3.60 (5.57%) to $68.25 on volume of 1.6 million shares; and
  • Lihir Gold (LGL), +$0.09 (5.41%) to $1.66 on volume of 16.8 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Utilities (XUJ), which climbed 52.9 points (1.22%) to 4397.9 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 27.99m units; The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 3.9m shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 22.44m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • AGL Energy (AGK), +$0.98 (7.31%) to $14.38 on volume of 3.9 million shares.

The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 24.6 points (5.04%) to 463.7 points. The index only has two components, and both fell - 

  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.47 (5.32%) to $8.37 on volume of 1.4 million shares; and
  • Iress Market Technology (IRE), -$0.1 (2.22%) to $4.40 on volume of 363.6 thousand shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which slid 25.2 points (1.98%) to 1247.7 points. The 24 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 43.84m units; The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 26.62m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.36m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Macquarie Media Group (MMG), -$0.26 (17.93%) to $1.19 on volume of 573.4 thousand shares;
  • Pacific Brands (PBG), -$0.17 (14.05%) to $1.04 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
  • West Australian Newspapers Holdings (WAN), -$0.6 (8.89%) to $6.15 on volume of 313.2 thousand shares;
  • GUD. Holdings (GUD), -$0.4 (7.55%) to $4.90 on volume of 160.6 thousand shares; and
  • JB Hi-Fi (JBH), -$0.7 (7.07%) to $9.20 on volume of 633 thousand shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Industrials (XNJ), which slid 67.8 points (1.87%) to 3548.3 points. The 32 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 100.94m units; The 23 decliners had volume traded totalling 60.66m units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 33.5m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL), -$0.13 (18.25%) to $0.56 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Seek (SEK), -$0.47 (12.81%) to $3.20 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
  • Transpacific Industries (TPI), -$0.5 (12.5%) to $3.50 on volume of 752.9 thousand shares;
  • Transfield Services (TSE), -$0.43 (11.78%) to $3.22 on volume of 975.3 thousand shares; and
  • Spotless Group (SPT), -$0.23 (9.39%) to $2.22 on volume of 469.3 thousand shares.
Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XEJ Energy 11624.3 279.5 2.46 159m
XMJ Materials 7976 182.3 2.34 190m
XUJ Utilities 4397.9 52.9 1.22 28m
XTJ Telecommunications 1330.3 -16.1 -1.2 56m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6116.4 -82.9 -1.34 27m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4378 -61.6 -1.39 78m
XPJ Property Trusts 979.9 -14.2 -1.43 223m
XHJ Healthcare 8613 -126.6 -1.45 9m
XNJ Industrials 3548.3 -67.8 -1.87 101m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1247.7 -25.2 -1.98 44m
XIJ Information Technology 463.7 -24.6 -5.04 2m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
QGC Queensland Gas Company Limited 5.75 2.55 79.69 113.2m
GPT GPT Group 0.86 0.02 2.38 64.6m
TLS Telstra Corporation Limited. 3.95 -0.07 -1.74 36.6m
VPG Valad Property Group 0.09 -0.01 -7.22 31.8m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.03 0.01 25 23.4m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
QGC Queensland Gas Company Limited 5.75 2.55 79.69 113.2m
BEC Becton Property Group 0.23 0.08 53.33 2m
SHG Sunshine Gas Limited 3.57 1.06 42.23 2m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.03 0.01 25 23.4m
CXG Coote Industrial Ltd 0.37 0.07 21.31 3.7m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
APD APN Property Group Limited 0.15 -0.07 -31.82 247.3k
CPR Clive Peeters Limited 0.21 -0.09 -28.81 854.8k
AXQ Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust 0.01 0.00 -28.57 1.1m
MUE Multiplex European Property Fund 0.23 -0.06 -19.3 100k
EHL Emeco Holdings Ltd 0.56 -0.13 -18.25 1.4m