Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Boy O Boy, it's starting to get interesting. When a career hack like Greensplatt admits he hasn't got a clue how things function, your beloved GT starts to think that perhaps Greensplatt has had a visit from the Ghost of Hannukah Past and has been shown that in the not-too-distant future, people will spit on him in the streets.
As I have said often over the past 10 years, such an outcome would be no less than Mr Magoo deserves. He sat in his crony heaven - a government-provided sinecure - as the western world rode the benefits of a 20-year bull market in bonds (and stocks), and claimed those benefits as the natural outcome of his genius. This was the same post hoc ergo propter hoc analysis that makes journalists think that any economic upswing is caused by political interference in an economy, when in fact good things happen despite political distortion of the economy.
Journalists, schoolteachers and the congenitally dim accepted the "Maestro Magoo" crapola as fact, and the hagiography was set in motion. And all the while, there were the Jeremiahs and Isaiahs of the intarwebs tubes, yelling that Emperor Maestro had no clothes.
That said, we are near to a short-term bottom. We could easily bounce 30% from here.
Why do I think that? Simple. Greenspan babbled yesterday about further downside - and if that guy ever had to back his opinions with his own money, he would be dead within a week.
That said, Mr Magoo is the only contrarian indicator which is flashing 'big bounce' - everything else points to a continuation of the decline. So while 'Fade Greenspan's Big Calls' has been something that has paid good dividends for over thirty years, I think that this time he is going to prove useless even as a contrarian indicator.
We are still in the formative stages of this event - as former parasite Paul Keating said the other day, the pain that started in earnest a year ago is going to last eight to ten years.
If we take that fork, then a few things are easy to predict. By the time the dust has settled, we will have had at least one world war, the US will be at least 3 different countries, at least two European capitals will be reduced to sheets of glowing glass, and western society will have regressed much as it did between the end of the Western Roman Empire and the start of the Renaissance. (Note that this time is what we refer to as the Dark Ages, but they were dark only in Europe: culture flourished in the Islamic world and in Asia, advances in mathematics, philosophy and engineering were made, and we benefited from them starting in the mid 1300s.)
There is one thing that will save us from a new Dark Ages, and only one.
That one thing is that we might be lucky enough to pass the inflection point on the 'knee' of our development curve, and attain the Kurzweilian idea of the Singularity, before we do too much more damage to our own civilisation.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - slid pretty savagely, posting a loss of 107.7 points (2.73%), finishing at 3831.6 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3987.8 at 10:00 am, while the low for the day was 3799.5 - set at 2:36 pm Sydney time.
The last date on which the index closed at or below 3831 was November 11th 2004 - the same date on which the intraday low was lower than today.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.08bn units, 14.4% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1209 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 254 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 171.7m units; decliners numbered 708 counters, and between them they traded aggregate declining volume of 836.5m shares.
Of the 494 All Ordinaries components, 97 rose while 325 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.8:1, with 138.76m shares traded in gainers while 662.42m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - dipped pretty savagely,rather savagely, losing 105 points (2.64%), closing out the session at 3869.4 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 3831.60 | -107.70 (2.7%) |
| ASX 20 | 2325.20 | -59.90 (2.5%) |
| ASX 50 | 3894.10 | -94.20 (2.4%) |
| ASX 100 | 3182.60 | -82.40 (2.5%) |
| ASX 200 | 3869.40 | -105.00 (2.6%) |
| ASX 300 | 3847.70 | -103.80 (2.6%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3563.50 | -136.60 (3.7%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 1818.40 | -70.90 (3.8%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 59.9 points (2.51%), closing out the session at 2325.2 points.
The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 134.45m units; only 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 12.31m shares. The 18 decliners had volume traded totalling 122.14m units. The three gainers within the index were
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$0.44 (2.59%) to $17.45 on volume of 6.7 million shares;
- CSL (CSL), +$0.87 (2.56%) to $34.89 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
- Brambles (BXB), +$0.09 (1.16%) to $7.84 on volume of 3.1 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Macquarie Group (MQG), -$3.25 (10.16%) to $28.75 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
- Westfield Group (WDC), -$1.46 (9.86%) to $13.34 on volume of 17 million shares;
- AMP (AMP), -$0.31 (5.17%) to $5.69 on volume of 4.4 million shares;
- Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.43 (4.88%) to $8.38 on volume of 2 million shares; and
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.2 (4.63%) to $4.12 on volume of 9.9 million shares.
The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) had significantly worse day than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 70.9 points (3.75%), closing out the session at 1818.4 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 51 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 136 closed lower for the session.
The 208 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 298.19m units: volume in the 51 gainers totalling 45.31m shares, with trade totalling 231.59m units in the index's 136 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Arrow Energy (AOE), +$0.24 (12.06%) to $2.23 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
- Molopo Australia Ltd (MPO), +$0.05 (11.76%) to $0.48 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
- Australian Education Trust (AEU), +$0.03 (9.43%) to $0.29 on volume of 176.9 thousand shares;
- Citigold Corporation (CTO), +$0.02 (8.11%) to $0.20 on volume of 426.8 thousand shares; and
- Oakton (OKN), +$0.17 (8.06%) to $2.28 on volume of 48.7 thousand shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.16 (31.37%) to $0.35 on volume of 7 million shares;
- Kagara Zinc (KZL), -$0.28 (27.09%) to $0.74 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Allco Finance Group (AFG), -$0.03 (25.83%) to $0.09 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
- Platinum Australia (PLA), -$0.15 (25.66%) to $0.42 on volume of 3.7 million shares; and
- Record Realty (RRT), -$0 (25%) to $0.01 on volume of 2.2 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 3831.6 | -107.7 | -2.73 | 904.1m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 3894.1 | -94.2 | -2.36 | 290.3m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 3869.4 | -105 | -2.64 | 757.9m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 3847.7 | -103.8 | -2.63 | 847.1m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3563.5 | -136.6 | -3.69 | 270.4m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 1818.4 | -70.9 | -3.75 | 286.4m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2325.2 | -59.9 | -2.51 | 124.5m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 3182.6 | -82.4 | -2.52 | 560.7m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 3 | 23 | 42 | 97 | 51 | 254 |
| Declines | 18 | 71 | 148 | 325 | 136 | 708 |
| Advancing Volume | 12.3m | 93.9m | 118.3m | 138.8m | 45.3m | 171.7m |
| Declining Volume | 122.1m | 399.1m | 568.1m | 662.4m | 231.6m | 836.5m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, 2 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 9 lost ground.
The best performing index was Information Technology (XIJ), which added 28.6 points (6.45%) to 471.8 points. The lone rising index component had volume amounting to 3.04m shares, while sole declining stock traded 0.22m units. The gainer:
- Computershare (CPU), +$0.58 (7.32%) to $8.50 on volume of 3 million shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 118 points (1.37%) to 8704.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.24m units; 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.32m shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 5.11m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Cochlear (COH), +$2.00 (3.77%) to $55.00 on volume of 329.3 thousand shares;
- CSL (CSL), +$0.87 (2.56%) to $34.89 on volume of 2.5 million shares; and
- Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.30 (2.23%) to $13.74 on volume of 481.1 thousand shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Property Trusts (XPJ), which dipped 111.9 points (10.28%) to 976.5 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 225.88m units; 18 index components fell, with downside volume totalling 160.65m units. Volume in the lone rising index component was 30.15m shares. The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.19 (34.23%) to $0.37 on volume of 18.1 million shares;
- Dexus Property Group (DXS), -$0.27 (23.04%) to $0.89 on volume of 15.1 million shares;
- Abacus Property Group (ABP), -$0.11 (21.78%) to $0.40 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
- Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), -$0.03 (20%) to $0.12 on volume of 3.5 million shares; and
- Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), -$0.08 (17.02%) to $0.39 on volume of 3.1 million shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 143.7 points (3.05%) to 4571.5 points. The 29 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 69.72m units. 25 of the 29 stocks fell, and downside volume was 65.71m units. Only 3 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 3.96m shares. The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Allco Finance Group (AFG), -$0.03 (25.83%) to $0.09 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
- HFA Holdings (HFA), -$0.07 (17.57%) to $0.31 on volume of 979.8 thousand shares;
- Babcock and Brown Capital (BCM), -$0.31 (13.5%) to $1.96 on volume of 524.7 thousand shares;
- Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.19 (13.48%) to $1.22 on volume of 594.8 thousand shares; and
- Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.17 (10.83%) to $1.40 on volume of 4.8 million shares.
Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Materials (XMJ), which slid 205.5 points (2.55%) to 7839.2 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 222.48m units; 36 decliners had volume traded totalling 176.59m units, and 6 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 22.07m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.16 (31.37%) to $0.35 on volume of 7 million shares;
- Kagara Zinc (KZL), -$0.28 (27.09%) to $0.74 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Platinum Australia (PLA), -$0.15 (25.66%) to $0.42 on volume of 3.7 million shares;
- Sino Gold Mining (SGX), -$0.65 (21.52%) to $2.37 on volume of 2 million shares; and
- Equinox Minerals (EQN), -$0.28 (19.58%) to $1.15 on volume of 4.4 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XIJ | Information Technology | 471.8 | 28.6 | 6.45 | 3m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 8704.5 | 118 | 1.37 | 10m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4447.1 | -38.2 | -0.85 | 24m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1352.1 | -12.6 | -0.92 | 37m |
| XEJ | Energy | 11764.5 | -119.7 | -1.01 | 50m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1301.3 | -18.7 | -1.42 | 39m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3687.6 | -64.5 | -1.72 | 68m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 6257.1 | -136.1 | -2.13 | 29m |
| XMJ | Materials | 7839.2 | -205.5 | -2.55 | 222m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 4571.5 | -143.7 | -3.05 | 70m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 976.5 | -111.9 | -10.28 | 226m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPG | Valad Property Group | 0.09 | 0.01 | 6.1 | 30.2m |
| IIF | ING Industrial Fund | 0.63 | -0.07 | -10 | 26.4m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation Limited. | 4.03 | -0.03 | -0.74 | 21.4m |
| OZL | OZ Minerals Limited | 0.92 | -0.04 | -4.19 | 21.1m |
| PNA | PanAust Ltd | 0.18 | -0.04 | -16.28 | 20.5m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | CEC Group Limited | 0.19 | 0.03 | 15.15 | 18.6k |
| AOE | Arrow Energy Limited | 2.23 | 0.24 | 12.06 | 5.6m |
| MPO | Molopo Australia Ltd | 0.48 | 0.05 | 11.76 | 1.5m |
| AEU | Australian Education Trust | 0.29 | 0.03 | 9.43 | 176.9k |
| CTO | Citigold Corporation Limited | 0.20 | 0.02 | 8.11 | 426.8k |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOF | Macquarie Office Trust | 0.37 | -0.19 | -34.23 | 18.1m |
| MRE | Minara Resources Limited | 0.35 | -0.16 | -31.37 | 7m |
| KZL | Kagara Zinc Limited | 0.74 | -0.28 | -27.09 | 2m |
| AFG | Allco Finance Group Limited | 0.09 | -0.03 | -25.83 | 5.1m |
| PLA | Platinum Australia Limited | 0.42 | -0.15 | -25.66 | 3.7m |
