Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, November 03, 2008

OzRant: Fade This Rubbish...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Several things are true about today's session: the first is that SPISpy subscribers pocketed a 30-odd point short scalp entered just before 11 a.m. Sydney time and exited just before 12 noon (in the second e-mail I said that it would be OK to close it and take profits, but that I advocated keeping it open, since the market is primed to fall to pieces over the coming weeks).

Sure, it wasn't as good as the Bond short entered on October 6th (search for "ScalpRant" in the archive... and note that the US 30-year bond was above 120 when it was issued: it's now below 114, for a lazy 600% profit in less than a month).

The second core truth about today is that the Strayan market is being deliberately 'fluffed' - by the same sort of professionals who ensure 'ability to perform' for male porn stars. 

The price action screams "Smart Money At Work"... setting up a situation in which "Kochie" and the rest of his journalistic ilk, will receive press releases from the brokerage community, and will parrot same across all the air-waves in Straya.

This, it is hoped, will encourage Mum and Dad investors to dive back into the market: the brokerage community knows that there is a load of dough which has been withdrawn from mortgage-type funds, and which is sitting in bank accounts. They also know that this amount will increase dramatically once the fund managers get a large enough government bribe to encourage them to release the money that is currently being held hostage.

So they figure that is they goose the market indices, the punters will be tricked into putting that cash back into market-linked investments... but not into mortgage funds. The game that is now afoot, is to get them to slosh it into stock funds.

And then, the smart money will be selling like mad.

You mark my words, dear Readers... from Koch to Pascoe to Kohler, these chuckleheads who never saw disaster coming, will tout stocks simply because we've seen a dead cat bounce (and because they are all Brokerage Bitches). 

Nobody who reads this screed is dumb enough to listen to the likes of Koch et al (except for some of our Froggo Schoolteacher types... but there's only one of those).

Speaking of short-arse Frogs, I admit I'm buggered if I know why he logs in to RantWorld ten times a day: maybe he thinks I will post the link to the Teacher Porn video, or maybe he's the sort of dill that has to read something ten times to understand what it's about.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 190.3 points (4.78%), finishing at 4173 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4173 at 4:37 pm, while the low for the day was 4080 - set at 11:19 am Sydney time.

The closing print is - like most closing numbers over the past week - a fiction. It was achieved after the market had closed, during a manic spike in the SPI futures which accompanied a goosing during settlement.

It's odd that everyone is still blathering on about bearish sentiment, when the only panics we see are buying panics because everybody is scared they will miss the recovery. Does that sound bearish to you?

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.19bn units, 6.2% below its 10-day average of 1.26bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1130 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 644 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 804.7m units; there were 258 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 285.7m shares.

Of the 493 All Ordinaries components, 335 rose while 87 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3.2:1, with 667.02m shares traded in gainers while 207.44m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - hurtled skyward to the tune of 203.5 points (5.06%), closing out the session at 4221.5 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 4173.00 190.30 (4.8%)
ASX 20 2572.70 125.10 (5.1%)
ASX 50 4273.20 206.60 (5.1%)
ASX 100 3476.60 165.00 (5.0%)
ASX 200 4221.50 203.50 (5.1%)
ASX 300 4198.50 201.90 (5.1%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3763.10 153.60 (4.3%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1961.10 108.40 (5.9%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 125.1 points (5.11%), closing out the session at 2572.7 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 107.25m units; 20 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 99.83m shares, while the sole declining stock traded 7.42m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$2.88 (13.41%) to $24.35 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), +$3.65 (12.41%) to $33.05 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway. (SUN), +$0.97 (12.11%) to $8.98 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
  • AMP (AMP), +$0.56 (10.35%) to $5.97 on volume of 5.6 million shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.38 (9.57%) to $4.35 on volume of 9.6 million shares.

The sole decliner in the index was :

  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.23 (1.4%) to $16.17 on volume of 7.4 million shares.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) also headed skywards, stacking on 108.4 points (5.85%), closing out the session at 1961.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 153 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 37 closed lower for the session.

The 207 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 317.96m units: volume in the 153 gainers totalling 234.62m shares, with trade totalling 59.21m units in the index's 37 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • Marion Energy (MAE), +$0.11 (61.11%) to $0.29 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
  • Rubicon Europe Trust Group (REU), +$0.00 (50%) to $0.01 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.13 (40.62%) to $0.45 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Cockatoo Coal (COK), +$0.11 (34.43%) to $0.41 on volume of 1 million shares; and
  • Mincor Resources NL (MCR), +$0.23 (32.37%) to $0.92 on volume of 2.9 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.33 (31.73%) to $0.71 on volume of 7.1 million shares;
  • Compass Resources (CMR), -$0.08 (16.85%) to $0.37 on volume of 777.7 thousand shares;
  • Perilya (PEM), -$0.03 (10.64%) to $0.21 on volume of 1.7 million shares;
  • Strike Resources Ltd (SRK), -$0.05 (10%) to $0.45 on volume of 237.6 thousand shares; and
  • Apex Minerals NL (AXM), -$0.03 (10%) to $0.23 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 4173 190.3 4.78 921.5m
XFL ASX 50 4273.2 206.6 5.08 280.8m
XJO ASX 200 4221.5 203.5 5.06 706.7m
XKO ASX 300 4198.5 201.9 5.05 847.9m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3763.1 153.6 4.26 259.6m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1961.1 108.4 5.85 307.4m
XTL ASX 20 2572.7 125.1 5.11 97.6m
XTO ASX 100 3476.6 165 4.98 540.5m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 20 91 173 335 153 644
Declines 1 9 22 87 37 258
Advancing Volume 99.8m 405.2m 552.4m 667m 234.6m 804.7m
Declining Volume 7.4m 131.3m 145.3m 207.4m 59.2m 285.7m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, it was green across the board, as every sector managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which added 466.8 points (7.05%) to 7088.5 points. The 13 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 28.03m units; 13 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 28.03m shares, while sole declining stock traded 0m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • AWB (AWB), +$0.36 (13.74%) to $2.98 on volume of 541.8 thousand shares;
  • Australian Agricultural Company. (AAC), +$0.26 (13.68%) to $2.16 on volume of 246.3 thousand shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$2.88 (13.41%) to $24.35 on volume of 2 million shares;
  • Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.05 (9.8%) to $0.56 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.09 (7.23%) to $1.26 on volume of 1.8 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Consumer Discretionary (XDJ), which gained 80.4 points (6.21%) to 1375.5 points. The 24 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 45.09m units; 19 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 42.28m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 1.02m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • APN News & Media (APN), +$0.57 (23.65%) to $2.98 on volume of 479.6 thousand shares;
  • West Australian Newspapers Holdings (WAN), +$0.80 (13.01%) to $6.95 on volume of 207.3 thousand shares;
  • News Corporation Inc (Voting CDI) (NWS), +$1.50 (10.1%) to $16.35 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Tabcorp Holdings (TAH), +$0.65 (9.49%) to $7.50 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • David Jones (DJS), +$0.28 (9.12%) to $3.35 on volume of 818.6 thousand shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Materials (XMJ), which climbed 536.8 points (6.05%) to 9404.8 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 229.68m units; 38 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 131.44m shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 97.42m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.13 (40.62%) to $0.45 on volume of 3.5 million shares;
  • Mincor Resources NL (MCR), +$0.23 (32.37%) to $0.92 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
  • Platinum Australia (PLA), +$0.18 (30.51%) to $0.77 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), +$0.14 (26.42%) to $0.67 on volume of 3.4 million shares; and
  • Independence Group NL (IGO), +$0.37 (26.24%) to $1.78 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

As mentioned above, there were no declining sectors today - so we can move on down to the Asian market stuff now.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XSJ Consumer Staples 7088.5 466.8 7.05 28m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1375.5 80.4 6.21 45m
XMJ Materials 9404.8 536.8 6.05 230m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 4767.3 253.7 5.62 69m
XNJ Industrials 3757 176 4.91 73m
XIJ Information Technology 488.9 21.6 4.62 3m
XEJ Energy 13480.6 465.8 3.58 54m
XHJ Healthcare 9183.1 285.6 3.21 7m
XTJ Telecommunications 1418.7 35.8 2.59 28m
XUJ Utilities 4560.4 112.5 2.53 15m
XPJ Property Trusts 1037.8 14.9 1.46 178m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MGX Mount Gibson Iron 0.40 -0.01 -2.47 78.8m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.02 0.00 -7.69 36m
GPT GPT Group 0.84 0.09 12.08 28.9m
OZL OZ Minerals 1.07 0.13 13.23 24m
GMG Goodman Group 0.97 0.04 3.74 22m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
MAE Marion Energy 0.29 0.11 61.11 4.8m
REU Rubicon Europe Trust Group 0.01 0.00 50 1.8m
ARR Arasor International 0.05 0.02 42.86 411.3k
LYC Lynas Corporation 0.45 0.13 40.62 3.5m
COK Cockatoo Coal 0.41 0.11 34.43 1m
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ABS ABC Learning Centres 0.00 0.00 38k
MRE Minara Resources 0.71 -0.33 -31.73 7.1m
AND Andean Resources 0.70 -0.15 -17.65 342.7k
CMR Compass Resources 0.37 -0.08 -16.85 777.7k
MLX Metals X 0.13 -0.02 -13.79 635k