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Thursday, November 13, 2008

OZRant: Leo Who?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The Australian markets are full of speculation as to the identity of Leo - the chap who fed a journo the 'How a budgie can get on a share register', which was the top story on the Age website (and will may well get picked up by the TV in the next few days). 

An interesting chap, this Leo... with his constant references to organised crime, dodgy brokers and what-not, you would think he must be a bit of a rabid conspiracy theorist.

I admit, Dearest Reader, that the identity of Leo is known to me. He is a long-time friend of Rant readers, going right back to the very dawn of Rantstory (as I've said before ,that is like history, only rantier). 

From time to time I wax lyrical about his talent - he's a fellow for which my goodwill borders on admiration. He's been in and around the financial services industry for years and years, and - bizarrely enough - he and I agree on everything

Anyhow ... enough of Leo. He will disappear into the shadowy dark places until it's time for him to throw another regulatory agency under the bus. Contacts in the press can be a powerful thing; I wish I had been as connected as Leo back when I was leading the charge against 'U' orders and closed briefings (both of which I was against, and which - eventually - the exchanges finally banned).

Only a short amount of prefatory blather today, dearest Reader... I am feeling rather self-satisfied.


One last thing - I am intensely annoyed that I called off the re-setting of the short (mentioned Friday as being set for 11 a.m. Monday). SPISpyers have not benefited at all from the last few days of decline: on Monday just before 11 a.m., I declared that the market behaviour was all wrong and delayed the entry until Monday afternoon, then didn't send out an e-mail. Since then there have been no technical entry points. So despite being predicted and clearly enunciated, it does not go down as a win, even though my target of SPI 3400 for this leg was still active.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - got flogged worse than a French batallion, posting a loss of 211.2 points (5.44%), finishing at 3672.4 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3751.8 at 10:19 am, on a bounce after the initial decline. The low for the day was 3672.4 - set after the close (during settlement - the print is timestamped 4:15 pm Sydney time).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.25bn units, 2.8% below its 10-day average of 1.29bn shares. So while there was no concerted bounce attempt, there was also not the washout that we have been waiting for.

The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1154 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 168 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 210m units; there were 781 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 913.6m shares. So we got downside volume making up over 80% of total volume - that's pretty bad breadth, but before we can set a genuine tradeable low, we really want to see a day in which everyone throws in the towel... this wasn't it.

Of the 493 All Ordinaries components, 62 rose while 355 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.4:1, with 173.21m shares traded in gainers while 768.67m shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - dipped rather savagely, losing 230 points (5.86%), closing out the session at 3697.3 points.

GT Intraday Chart
Name Close +/-(%)
All Ordinaries 3672.40 -211.20 (5.4%)
ASX 20 2191.10 -153.60 (6.6%)
ASX 50 3705.40 -249.50 (6.3%)
ASX 100 3036.80 -193.70 (6.0%)
ASX 200 3697.30 -230.00 (5.9%)
ASX 300 3678.70 -226.80 (5.8%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50 3469.10 -133.10 (3.7%)
ASX Small Ordinaries 1777.80 -68.60 (3.7%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - was thrashed into submission, sliding 153.6 points (6.55%), closing out the session at 2191.1 points.

The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 162.73m units; only 2 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 7.21m shares: the 19 decliners had volume traded totalling 155.52m units. 

The gainers within the index were

  • Brambles (BXB), +$0.04 (0.51%) to $7.84 on volume of 5.7 million shares; and
  • CSL (CSL), +$0.05 (0.14%) to $37.00 on volume of 1.5 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$3.35 (12.43%) to $23.60 on volume of 3 million shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$3.3 (11.66%) to $25.00 on volume of 16.1 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$2.13 (11.15%) to $16.97 on volume of 17 million shares;
  • St George Bank (SGB), -$2.5 (9.43%) to $24.00 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.39 (9.09%) to $3.90 on volume of 8.1 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO). The small end of the market , while still dropping overall, did significantly better than its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords was taken to the woodshed somewhat, sliding 68.6 points (3.72%), closing out the session at 1777.8 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 23 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 162 closed lower for the session.

The 207 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 259.85m units: volume in the 23 gainers totalling 20.93m shares, with trade totalling 209.59m units in the index's 162 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were
  • NRW Holdings (NWH), +$0.06 (19.67%) to $0.37 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
  • GRD (GRD), +$0.05 (11.63%) to $0.48 on volume of 230.3 thousand shares;
  • Mineral Deposits (MDL), +$0.03 (7.5%) to $0.43 on volume of 208.4 thousand shares;
  • Specialty Fashion Group (SFH), +$0.02 (6%) to $0.27 on volume of 129.1 thousand shares; and
  • Alliance Resources (AGS), +$0.03 (5.66%) to $0.56 on volume of 104.8 thousand shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

  • Imdex (IMD), -$0.11 (22.22%) to $0.39 on volume of 4.6 million shares;
  • CopperCo (CUO), -$0.02 (17.17%) to $0.08 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
  • Panoramic Resources (PAN), -$0.22 (17.13%) to $1.04 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Timbercorp (TIM), -$0.09 (17%) to $0.42 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
  • Mirabela Nickel (MBN), -$0.26 (16.46%) to $1.32 on volume of 25.6 thousand shares.

Index Changes
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
XAO All Ordinaries 3672.4 -211.2 -5.44 1043.1m
XFL ASX 50 3705.4 -249.5 -6.31 371.6m
XJO ASX 200 3697.3 -230 -5.86 881.1m
XKO ASX 300 3678.7 -226.8 -5.81 981.8m
XMD ASX Mid-Cap 50 3469.1 -133.1 -3.69 355.2m
XSO ASX Small Ordinaries 1777.8 -68.6 -3.72 255.1m
XTL ASX 20 2191.1 -153.6 -6.55 154.6m
XTO ASX 100 3036.8 -193.7 -6 726.7m
Market Breadth
ASX20 XTO XJO XAO XSO Market
Advances 2 8 16 62 23 168
Declines 19 88 180 355 162 781
Advancing Volume 7.2m 138m 153.7m 173.2m 20.9m 210m
Declining Volume 155.5m 529.7m 662.6m 768.7m 209.6m 913.6m
GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, the news was universally negative: not a single sector managed to break into the "Win" column.

Since none of the industry sectors registered a gain for the session, there is no point in burdening ourselves with the internal behaviour of advancing sectors... on to the losers.

The worst-performed index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 819.5 points (9.29%) to 8003.4 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 142.64m units. OF the 45, 42 fell, and between them the losers had volume traded totalling 130.89m units. One single stock rose, and volume in the lone rising index component was a lousy 250 thousand shares. 

The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Panoramic Resources (PAN), -$0.22 (17.13%) to $1.04 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.07 (16.28%) to $0.36 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
  • Kagara Zinc (KZL), -$0.09 (15.79%) to $0.48 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
  • Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.03 (15.15%) to $0.14 on volume of 1.8 million shares; and
  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.24 (14.08%) to $1.47 on volume of 7 million shares.

Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Financials ex Property Trusts (XXJ), which slid 281 points (6.72%) to 3902.8 points. The 29 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 108.33m units; The 26 decliners had volume traded totalling 97.53m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 60 thousand shares. The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Babcock & Brown (BNB), -$0.08 (12.6%) to $0.56 on volume of 4.9 million shares;
  • Macquarie Group (MQG), -$3.35 (12.43%) to $23.60 on volume of 3 million shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$2.13 (11.15%) to $16.97 on volume of 17 million shares;
  • St George Bank (SGB), -$2.5 (9.43%) to $24.00 on volume of 1.9 million shares; and
  • Lend Lease Corporation (LLC), -$0.70 (8.97%) to $7.10 on volume of 1.7 million shares.

Third-to-last amongst the sector indices was Energy (XEJ), which slid 680.6 points (5.18%) to 12464.8 points. The 19 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 79.47m units; The 17 decliners had volume traded totalling 45.46m units, and volume in the lone rising index component was 1.19m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

  • Paladin Energy (PDN), -$0.4 (15.75%) to $2.14 on volume of 4.2 million shares;
  • Worleyparsons (WOR), -$1.58 (11.49%) to $12.17 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
  • Nexus Energy (NXS), -$0.05 (7.94%) to $0.58 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$3.09 (7.73%) to $36.90 on volume of 2.1 million shares; and
  • Santos (STO), -$1 (7.17%) to $12.95 on volume of 2.1 million shares.

Sector Indices
Code GICS Sector Close +/- % Volume
XHJ Healthcare 8873 -107.8 -1.2 16m
XUJ Utilities 4580.5 -56.3 -1.21 82m
XIJ Information Technology 386.4 -5.7 -1.45 3m
XTJ Telecommunications 1380.8 -34.5 -2.44 34m
XNJ Industrials 3384.7 -115.5 -3.3 165m
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1189.4 -46.1 -3.73 34m
XSJ Consumer Staples 6347.2 -297.4 -4.48 28m
XPJ Property Trusts 1007.7 -50.7 -4.79 209m
XEJ Energy 12464.8 -680.6 -5.18 79m
XXJ Financials ex Property Trusts 3902.8 -281 -6.72 108m
XMJ Materials 8003.4 -819.5 -9.29 143m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.09 0.02 20 65.2m
AIO Asciano Group 1.50 0.35 30.43 47.3m
GPT GPT Group 1.12 -0.08 -6.3 46.8m
QGC Queensland Gas Company 5.75 0.00 0 32.8m
ADY Admiralty Resources NL 0.02 0.00 -11.76 27.7m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
AIO Asciano Group 1.50 0.35 30.43 47.3m
BVA Bravura Solutions 0.27 0.05 20.45 636k
BBI Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group 0.09 0.02 20 65.2m
NWH NRW Holdings 0.37 0.06 19.67 3.6m
KMN Kings Minerals NL 0.09 0.01 12.5 284.9k
All Ords Percentage Losers
Code Name Close +/- % Volume
ABS ABC Learning Centres 0.00 0.00 38k
IMD Imdex 0.39 -0.11 -22.22 4.6m
RPX Rp Data Ltd 0.55 -0.14 -20.29 53k
ACK Austock Group 0.20 -0.05 -20 39.2k
GMG Goodman Group 1.02 -0.22 -17.74 22.3m