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Well, those who took the SPISpy call on the Euro are now sitting on a 3-cent gain (equal to $3000 per contract) - having had to endure a countermove which was flagged as a possibility. Those who chose not to close the short in the SPI are no doubt feeling the pinch, but take it as read that the spike to overbought is not the start of a new bull leg... the silliness we are witnessing in equity markets is simply the washing off of a deep overbought condition: it has washed off more than expected, but we have still not seen any valid configuration that would indicate a bottom.
You'll know when I think the bottom is in - the MM Model Portfolios will have their hedges removed (they have been fully hedged with respect to the ASX200, since the All Ords was at 5800). Needless to say, removing market-wide risk from the portfolios proves to have been an absolute belter of an idea.
AS I said at the time, portfolio hedging is not hard to do - simply short the SPI, or buy SPI puts, until the net exposure on the short side equals the value of your portfolio. This removes market risk, and leave you with a portfolio that will advance so long as your stock selections outperform the index.
Everybody now knows that the non-white guy won the election. So the corruption machine has to change sides (what will Fox News do? it will do what Pravda would have done if the Republicans had won office in Moscow in the 1940s... it will change its tune).
Those who believe in the strong form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis will now say that the Obama win is now fully priced in.
That's rubbish: the bond market has not priced in a further fiscal loosening, nor has it priced in additional monetary easing. The bond market hasn't even priced in an increase in the riskiness of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which is now loaded with toxic sludge. And the USD has not priced in the effects of the massive money printing that has been happening over the last few weeks.
Once that starts to happen, the USD will crater (it has started) but more importantly, the US long bond will head towards 100. It's for this reason that there has been no attempt to take profits on the short position in the 30-year, which is now a month old.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 117.5 points (2.82%), finishing at 4287.3 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4291.9 at 3:49 pm, while the low for the day was 4224.7 - set at 10:53 am Sydney time.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.63bn units, 28.9% above its 10-day average of 1.26bn shares.The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1149 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 617 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 963.1m units; there were 324 declining stocks, which traded aggregate declining volume of 301.6m shares.
Of the 493 All Ordinaries components, 302 rose while 125 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3.9:1, with 852.53m shares traded in gainers while 220.62m shares traded in the day's losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - hurtled skyward to the tune of 121.5 points (2.88%), closing out the session at 4336.6 points.
| Name | Close | +/-(%) |
|---|---|---|
| All Ordinaries | 4287.30 | 117.50 (2.8%) |
| ASX 20 | 2628.00 | 59.70 (2.3%) |
| ASX 50 | 4384.70 | 115.70 (2.7%) |
| ASX 100 | 3567.40 | 95.50 (2.8%) |
| ASX 200 | 4336.60 | 121.50 (2.9%) |
| ASX 300 | 4312.50 | 119.80 (2.9%) |
| ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3862.20 | 115.30 (3.1%) |
| ASX Small Ordinaries | 2037.20 | 79.40 (4.1%) |
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - had a bit of a moonshot, stacking on 59.7 points (2.32%), closing out the session at 2628 points.
The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 155.14m units; 14 index components rose, and advancing volume was 110.37m shares. The 6 decliners had volume totalling 40.04m units.
The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$1.85 (8.96%) to $22.50 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
- RIO Tinto (RIO), +$6.89 (8.64%) to $86.60 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$2.48 (8.52%) to $31.60 on volume of 17.1 million shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), +$1.13 (4.85%) to $24.44 on volume of 3 million shares; and
- Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.72 (4.56%) to $16.50 on volume of 10.2 million shares.
On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.76 (3.41%) to $21.54 on volume of 9.9 million shares;
- CSL (CSL), -$0.98 (2.55%) to $37.52 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$0.8 (1.91%) to $41.00 on volume of 6.5 million shares;
- AMP (AMP), -$0.09 (1.51%) to $5.89 on volume of 16.5 million shares; and
- St George Bank (SGB), -$0.42 (1.4%) to $29.51 on volume of 1.3 million shares.
At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) hurtled skyward, stacking on 79.4 points (4.06%), closing out the session at 2037.2 points.
Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 134 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 56 closed lower for the session.
The 207 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 333.88m units: volume in the 134 gainers totalling 219.45m shares, with trade totalling 96.15m units in the index's 56 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were- Carbon Energy Ltd (CNX), +$0.10 (30.77%) to $0.43 on volume of 7.4 million shares;
- Apex Minerals NL (AXM), +$0.07 (28.89%) to $0.29 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
- Macmahon Holdings (MAH), +$0.24 (25.81%) to $1.17 on volume of 3 million shares;
- Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.10 (25.32%) to $0.50 on volume of 5.7 million shares; and
- Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.72 (24.57%) to $3.65 on volume of 306.2 thousand shares.
In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):
- Molopo Australia Ltd (MPO), -$0.12 (13.04%) to $0.80 on volume of 652.6 thousand shares;
- Babcock & Brown Communities Group (BBC), -$0.03 (11.63%) to $0.19 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
- Marion Energy (MAE), -$0.03 (10.34%) to $0.26 on volume of 3.1 million shares;
- Australian Education Trust (AEU), -$0.03 (10.34%) to $0.26 on volume of 386.2 thousand shares; and
- Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), -$0.01 (8.33%) to $0.11 on volume of 16.2 million shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4287.3 | 117.5 | 2.82 | 1365.7m |
| XFL | ASX 50 | 4384.7 | 115.7 | 2.71 | 406m |
| XJO | ASX 200 | 4336.6 | 121.5 | 2.88 | 1173.2m |
| XKO | ASX 300 | 4312.5 | 119.8 | 2.86 | 1294.1m |
| XMD | ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3862.2 | 115.3 | 3.08 | 561.2m |
| XSO | ASX Small Ordinaries | 2037.2 | 79.4 | 4.06 | 326.9m |
| XTL | ASX 20 | 2628 | 59.7 | 2.32 | 145.4m |
| XTO | ASX 100 | 3567.4 | 95.5 | 2.75 | 967.2m |
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 14 | 75 | 159 | 302 | 134 | 617 |
| Declines | 6 | 22 | 38 | 125 | 56 | 324 |
| Advancing Volume | 110.4m | 598.6m | 751.8m | 852.5m | 219.4m | 963.1m |
| Declining Volume | 40m | 115.6m | 173.5m | 220.6m | 96.1m | 301.6m |
GICS Industry Indices
Among the 11 industry indices, 9 registered an advance for the session, the remaining 2 lost ground.
The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 731 points (7.94%) to 9934.9 points. The 45 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 244.84m units; 44 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 232.15m shares, while sole declining stock traded 12.7m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Mount Gibson Iron (MGX), +$0.10 (25.33%) to $0.47 on volume of 61 million shares;
- Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.10 (25.32%) to $0.50 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
- Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.72 (24.57%) to $3.65 on volume of 306.2 thousand shares;
- Sims Group (SGM), +$2.15 (14.01%) to $17.50 on volume of 628.5 thousand shares; and
- Platinum Australia (PLA), +$0.10 (13.42%) to $0.85 on volume of 1.6 million shares.
Second in the index leadership stakes was Utilities (XUJ), which gained 246 points (5.33%) to 4862.1 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 47.57m units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10m shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 37.57m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- Babcock & Brown Wind Partners Group (BBW), +$0.13 (13.51%) to $1.05 on volume of 2 million shares;
- Spark Infrastructure Group (SKI), +$0.16 (11.11%) to $1.60 on volume of 1.5 million shares;
- AGL Energy (AGK), +$1.05 (7.27%) to $15.50 on volume of 2.3 million shares;
- Sp Ausnet (SPN), +$0.07 (6.54%) to $1.14 on volume of 2.7 million shares; and
- APA Group (APA), +$0.14 (4.64%) to $3.16 on volume of 468.5 thousand shares.
The bronze medal for today goes to Property Trusts (XPJ), which climbed 50.2 points (4.89%) to 1076.5 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 245.67m units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 217m shares, while the 4 decliners had volume traded totalling 26.16m units. The major percentage gainers within the index were
- ING Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.05 (12.35%) to $0.46 on volume of 8.1 million shares;
- Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), +$0.03 (11.11%) to $0.30 on volume of 23.1 million shares;
- Tishman Speyer Office Fund (TSO), +$0.04 (11.11%) to $0.40 on volume of 5 million shares;
- Babcock&Brown Japan Property Trust (BJT), +$0.05 (10.31%) to $0.54 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
- Goodman Group (GMG), +$0.10 (10%) to $1.05 on volume of 50.2 million shares.
The worst-performed index for the session was Information Technology (XIJ), which dipped 9 points (1.86%) to 476 points. There are onyl two stocks in this index and only one fell for the day -
- Computershare (CPU), -$0.25 (2.87%) to $8.45 on volume of 2.9 million shares.
Just missing out on the wooden spoon was Healthcare (XHJ), which slid 150.1 points (1.61%) to 9172.9 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 12.45m units; The 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 6.52m units, and 4 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 5.92m shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were
- CSL (CSL), -$0.98 (2.55%) to $37.52 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
- Sonic Healthcare (SHL), -$0.3 (2.2%) to $13.35 on volume of 2.2 million shares;
- Cochlear (COH), -$0.97 (1.64%) to $58.03 on volume of 341.7 thousand shares;
- Ansell (ANN), -$0.19 (1.44%) to $13.01 on volume of 901.5 thousand shares; and
- Primary Health Care (PRY), -$0.03 (0.64%) to $4.68 on volume of 1.2 million shares.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 9934.9 | 731 | 7.94 | 245m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4862.1 | 246 | 5.33 | 48m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1076.5 | 50.2 | 4.89 | 246m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 3953.7 | 173.9 | 4.6 | 112m |
| XEJ | Energy | 14176.9 | 453.3 | 3.3 | 308m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 1386.7 | 28.6 | 2.11 | 50m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 7067.7 | 118.1 | 1.7 | 30m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1406.4 | 11.2 | 0.8 | 35m |
| XXJ | Financials ex Property Trusts | 4838 | 1 | 0.02 | 112m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 9172.9 | -150.1 | -1.61 | 12m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 476 | -9 | -1.86 | 3m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QGC | Queensland Gas Company | 5.75 | 0.00 | 0 | 257.9m |
| MGX | Mount Gibson Iron | 0.47 | 0.10 | 25.33 | 61m |
| GMG | Goodman Group | 1.05 | 0.10 | 10 | 50.2m |
| GPT | GPT Group | 0.88 | 0.04 | 4.17 | 32.4m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 4.18 | 0.03 | 0.72 | 28.2m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFU | Ceramic Fuel Cells | 0.22 | 0.08 | 51.72 | 1.9m |
| CNX | Carbon Energy Ltd | 0.43 | 0.10 | 30.77 | 7.4m |
| AXM | Apex Minerals NL | 0.29 | 0.07 | 28.89 | 1.8m |
| TOE | Toro Energy | 0.14 | 0.03 | 27.27 | 2.9m |
| MAH | Macmahon Holdings | 1.17 | 0.24 | 25.81 | 3m |
All Ords Percentage Losers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABS | ABC Learning Centres | 0.00 | 0.00 | 38k | |
| BBI | Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group | 0.19 | -0.07 | -25.49 | 19.1m |
| MRZ | Mirvac Real Estate Investment Trust | 0.44 | -0.08 | -15.38 | 427.4k |
| MPO | Molopo Australia Ltd | 0.80 | -0.12 | -13.04 | 652.6k |
| BBC | Babcock & Brown Communities Group | 0.19 | -0.03 | -11.63 | 2.6m |
