Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

USRant: Another Fed Save... Yawn...

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[EDIT: 10:42 a.m. AEDST - corrected "10%" to "30%" in para on Shiller index.] [EDIT: 9:42 a.m. AEDST - added Jefferson quote on central banks.]

Today's USRant will be mercifully brief as far as prefatory waffle is concerned: I find myself somewhat behind-hand today.

Let's just note that today the Fed added another $800 billion in fiat 'rescue' pelf. That is, another $2-3 trillion just got tacked onto future tax liabilities. 

Why $2-3 trillion? Simple - because as usual, the Fed has lied about how much it actually intends to spend. The US's Council of Princes has basically given up all pretence that it thinks that the US public deserves the truth. In short, the Fed, the Treasury, the White House and the US Congress are all of the opinion that the average US citizen is a retarded child.

Given the lack of dead politicians, perhaps they're not far wrong - in any country that genuinely valued its own future, there would already be a large-scale uprising against those vermin.

Which bring us to a discussion of what will happen when the average schlub gets up on his hind legs and starts to bray about the extent to which the US has been perverted deliberately by its political class. We all know that the systematic rapine of the polity is the sole aim of central banking - Thomas Jefferson wrote about it way back in the 1700s when he argues forcefully against a central bank. A quote...

"I sincerely believe... that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

Thomas Jefferson to John Taylor, 1816

There is another quotation often attributed to Jefferson (supposedly in a letter to a guy called Galatin) which he apparently did not say or write, but which has entered the anti-Fed quote book...

"The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."

Although I think it perfectly captures what central banking is all about, it's pretty obviously a fraud because 'inflation' and 'deflation' were not in use in that context at the time. Oh well... someone else thought it up.

Jefferson also wrote of the risk of a standing army - something else he was against. I would like to know the national makeup of the US military units that have been deployed to home soil: I would bet the units chosen will have a very high proportion of immigrants and 'green card soldiers': anyone who has read their Mill, or who knows how the Austrians kept the peace in Italy and Hungary, will understand why: the less that soldiers have in common with those they are instructed to suppress, the easier they find it to open fire on a crowd.

That's why the Austrians stationed Hungarian in Italy, and Italians in Hungary. If you decide you need to order your troops to open fire on crowds of civilians, you want your troops to view them as 'foreigners'. 

So I bet that NorthCom has a load of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Mexicans in the units it deploys to the East Coast.

Economic News

US Home Prices fell 16.6% year-over-year, according to the latest Case-Shiller index. In major metro areas, the decline was 18.1%. Phoenix and Las Vegas both recorded falls of over 30%; Miami, LA and San Diego all registered drops in excess of 25%.

Consumer Confidence for November rose from 38 to 44.9 - handily beating expectations (which thought there would be a rise to 40). The 'present situation' component fell slightly, but the 'expectations' component rose sharply (from 35.7 to 46). In other words, the average Yank thinks that the government will bail them out of the hole they dug themselves. This from a nation which supposedly has a firm belief in private enterprise and self-reliance.

The preliminary reading for Q3 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5%. The GDP report was a tale of woe for anybody who believes in private enterprise: personal consumption expenditure contracted by 3.7%, and the only elements of the GDP disaggregation that rose, was government spending (although the trade balance did contract slightly). The report also showed a GDP deflator that rose 4.2%.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +36.08 points (0.43%) to 8479.47 points. The index high for the day was 8607.38, while the low was 8281.46. There was yet another inexplicable 275-point surge - this one started at just after 2:15 p.m., and lasted a little under 50 minutes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) contains 30 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1591.75m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 1079.31m units; 13 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 464.43m units.

Today the index rose by 36.08 points (0.43%) to 8479.47 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.19 (7.9%) to $29.77 on volume of 104.35m shares;
  • Alcoa (AA) +0.55 (6%) to $9.7 on volume of 25.84m shares;
  • Home Depot (HD) +0.83 (3.9%) to $22.25 on volume of 31.11m shares;
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.91 (3.6%) to $54.68 on volume of 26.78m shares; and
  • General Electric (GE) +0.51 (3.3%) to $15.77 on volume of 120.01m shares.

The S&P500 Index advanced +5.58 points (0.66%) to 857.39 points..

The S&P500 index (SPX) contains 500 components; the total volume traded in the index was 5451.42m units. Within the index, 295 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 3412.77m units; 189 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 1980.96m units.

Today the index rose by 5.58 points (0.66%) to 857.39 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) +0.44 (50%) to $1.32 on volume of 28.52m shares;
  • Lincoln National (LNC) +3.07 (43.7%) to $10.1 on volume of 12.35m shares;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.13 (38.2%) to $0.47 on volume of 95.86m shares;
  • D.R. Horton (DHI) +1.9 (38%) to $6.9 on volume of 21.33m shares; and
  • Genl Growth Properties (GGP) +0.36 (36%) to $1.36 on volume of 38.37m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 7.29 points (0.5%) to 1464.73 points..

The Nasdaq100 lost 11.76 points (1.02%) to 1142.58 points..

The Nasdaq100 index (NDX) contains 100 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1150.28m units. Within the index, 41 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 306.46m units; 56 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 842.19m units.

Today the index fell by 11.76 points (1.02%) to 1142.58 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Liberty Media (LINTA) -0.35 (13.9%) to $2.16 on volume of 6.74m shares;
  • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) -0.46 (12%) to $3.38 on volume of 9.25m shares;
  • Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -0.014 (8.8%) to $0.146 on volume of 85.84m shares;
  • Altera (ALTR) -1.32 (8.5%) to $14.21 on volume of 13.11m shares; and
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) -1.71 (8.4%) to $18.72 on volume of 7.16m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 3.88 points (6%) to 60.82 points..

The CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 3.28 points (5.21%) to 59.64 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3761 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 3.34bn shares. A total of 2505 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 0.9bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 1195 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 2.37bn shares. 7 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 125 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2975 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.41bn shares. A total of 1597 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.94bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1255 losers, and total declining volume was 1.44bn shares. 6 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 180 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8479.47 +36.08 0.43%
S&P500 Index 857.39 +5.58 0.66%
Nasdaq Composite 1464.73 -7.29 -0.5%
Nasdaq100 1142.58 -11.76 -1.02%
CBOE Volatility Index 60.82 -3.88 -6%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 59.64 -3.28 -5.21%

Of the 30 Dow components, 16 gained ground for the day, with total upside volume of 1082.89m units. 14 Dow components suffered losses for the day, with total volume in declining index components of 482.05m units.

Dow Darlings

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.19 (7.9%) to $29.77 on volume of 104.5m units
  • Alcoa (AA) +0.55 (6%) to $9.7 on volume of 25.9m units
  • Home Depot (HD) +0.83 (3.9%) to $22.25 on volume of 31.2m units
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.91 (3.6%) to $54.68 on volume of 26.9m units
  • General Electric (GE) +0.51 (3.3%) to $15.77 on volume of 120.5m units

Dow Duds:

  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -2.1 (5.9%) to $33.6 on volume of 37.1m units
  • United Technologies (UTX) -1.98 (4%) to $47.13 on volume of 12.6m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) -0.7 (3.4%) to $19.99 on volume of 90.3m units
  • Intel (INTC) -0.43 (3.2%) to $13.13 on volume of 82.1m units
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) -1.5 (2.3%) to $63.18 on volume of 22.2m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) +0.13 (2.2%) to $6.08 on volume of 461.1m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.21 (1.4%) to $14.8 on volume of 144.6m units
  • General Electric (GE) +0.51 (3.3%) to $15.77 on volume of 120.5m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.19 (7.9%) to $29.77 on volume of 104.5m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) --0.7 (3.4%) to $19.99 on volume of 90.3m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced as follows -

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 820.2 0.7 0.09
Silver 10.315 -0.04 -0.39
Palladium 198.1 2.3 1.17
Platinum 874.8 8.4 0.97

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 148.98m units. Within the index, 9 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 59.38m units; 7 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 89.6m units.

Today the index rose by 0.11 points (0.12%) to 94.93 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) +1.14 (5.2%) to $23.06 on volume of 20.29m shares;
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +1.5 (4.5%) to $35 on volume of 6.16m shares;
  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.31 (4%) to $8.01 on volume of 8.89m shares;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) +0.24 (3%) to $8.31 on volume of 4.15m shares; and
  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) +0.93 (2.7%) to $35.77 on volume of 1.05m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures performed as follows -

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 50.97 -3.53 -6.48
Heating Oil 1.7178 -0.0783 -4.36
Natural Gas 6.888 0.408 6.3
Gasoline RBOB 1.0939 -0.0486 -4.25
Ethanol 1.607 -0.035 -2.13

The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 103.05m units. Within the index, 10 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 50.11m units; 5 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 52.94m units.

Today the index rose by 1.43 points (1.14%) to 127.35 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) +1.48 (5.9%) to $26.6 on volume of 11.15m shares;
  • Oceaneering International (OII) +0.71 (3.2%) to $23.24 on volume of 0.81m shares;
  • Transocean Inc (RIG) +1.3 (2.1%) to $63.51 on volume of 4.94m shares;
  • Tidewater (TDW) +0.62 (1.7%) to $37.87 on volume of 1.63m shares; and
  • Smith International (SII) +0.41 (1.6%) to $26.62 on volume of 3.66m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures performed as follows -

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 84.85 -1.43 -1.66
Euro FX 1.3018 0.0148 1.15
Soybeans 883 -1 -0.11
Swiss Franc 0.8425 0.0075 0.9
Australian Dollar 0.646 -0.0007 -0.11
Canadian Dollar 0.814 0.0058 0.72
Japanese Yen 1.0461 0.0129 1.25
New Zealand Dollar 0.5439 0.0026 0.48

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 7.4%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) +0.51 (3.34%) to $15.77 on volume of 120.47m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +0.13 (2.18%) to $6.08 on volume of 461.07m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +1.91 (3.62%) to $54.68 on volume of 26.87m units.
  • IBM (IBM) +0.76 (0.95%) to $80.65 on volume of 12.16m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.43 (3.17%) to $13.13 on volume of 82.14m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.98 (5.98%) to $15.42 on volume of 81.18m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +24.61 (9.56%) to $282.05 on volume of 10.68m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.13 (38.24%) to $0.47 on volume of 97.36m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.08 (17.78%) to $0.53 on volume of 40.41m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1024.62m units. Within the index, 19 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 941.47m units; 4 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 83.15m units.

Today the index rose by 1.21 points (2.78%) to 44.66 points. Contributing to the advance were -

  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +2.19 (7.9%) to $29.77 on volume of 104.35m shares;
  • PNC Financial (PNC) +3.62 (7.5%) to $52.17 on volume of 6.45m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.57 (7%) to $8.68 on volume of 9.82m shares;
  • Capital One Financial (COF) +1.95 (6.1%) to $33.7 on volume of 16.14m shares; and
  • Comerica Inc (CMA) +1.07 (5.6%) to $20.27 on volume of 3.34m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 249.54m units. Within the index, 4 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 38.02m units; 14 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 211.52m units.

Today the index fell by 4.18 points (2.19%) to 187.02 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Altera (ALTR) -1.32 (8.5%) to $14.21 on volume of 13.11m shares;
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) -0.68 (4.5%) to $14.58 on volume of 18.61m shares;
  • Xilinx (XLNX) -0.68 (4.1%) to $15.77 on volume of 8.4m shares;
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) -0.19 (3.4%) to $5.34 on volume of 8.76m shares; and
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -0.06 (3.2%) to $1.8 on volume of 16.19m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 182.12m units. Within the index, 6 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 128.75m units; 10 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 53.31m units.

Today the index fell by 0.38 points (0.16%) to 233.67 points. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • United Technologies (UTX) -1.98 (4%) to $47.13 on volume of 12.55m shares;
  • Alliant Tech (ATK) -2.75 (3.5%) to $76.83 on volume of 0.63m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) -0.89 (2.7%) to $32.39 on volume of 0.37m shares;
  • ITT Corporation (ITT) -0.73 (1.9%) to $38.5 on volume of 13.61m shares; and
  • Raytheon (RTN) -0.66 (1.4%) to $45.77 on volume of 4.93m shares.