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Well, SPISpyers had two chances to exit the latest short. The first was an hour after the first entry (with a gain of about 35 SPI points). Those who didn't were advised to exit yesterday with a gain of about a hundred points (probably closer to 90). Not bad, considering that the entire trade was severely compromised by a huge lurch skywards.
If I can get into my e-mail server this morning I will post all three of the e-mails relating to the trade, the last of which - sent yesterday at 3:27 p.m. - pointed out that the exit was mandatory since today was going to be a bounce day on Wall Street. It also gave some preliminary guidance as to when the short will be re-instated (markets are going much lower, Dearest Reader... much much lower).
The NBER last night finally declared what the entire world has known for six months - economic life in the US has stalled for everyone who is not in the top 0.5% of the income distribution.
Normally, the NBER is about as good at recognising recession as S&P and Moody's are at recognising credit risk - the NBER will usually spot a recession about a year after it finishes, and S&P and Moody's will recognise a possible credit default just after the company files for Chapter 11.
This time it's somewhat different: the politically-appointed hacks at the NBER can't possibly stall any longer, but they realise that we are currently about half way down the slope, and that this will not be a 'V' shaped recession, or even a 'U' shaped recession. This will be An 'L' shaped recession, but there will be a second 'L' sticky-taped to the bottom of the first 'L'.
By the end, there will have been a major global war (started by Israel, in all likelihood), and the US will have collapsed.
Sounds too pessimistic to be plausible? Wait and see, dearest Reader... wait and see.
Economic News
Consumer Credit (for September) rose by $6.9 billion, and the prior month - the worst on record - was revised upward.
So let's get this straight: during the period in which your political masters told you that credit markets were stalled and a bailout of banks was necessary, US consumers managed to borrow about the same amount as they borrowed in April, May and June of this year.
Sure, there was a sharp fall in August, but recall that Fannie and Freddie were nationalised on September 7th, and AIG was bailed out on September 16th. By late September the US decided that the financial superstructure of their 'capitalist' economy needed to be owned by the government.
In other words, much of the story we have been fed was the result of the August data point - and yet consumers had no difficulty getting credit in September?
If the data for October show little or no contraction in consumer credit, the incoming administration ought to suspend all payments pursuant to Mr Hankie's Crony Transfer Plan - and they ought to claw back the $35 billion of bailout cash that has already been used to pay bonuses.
After all, if banks continue to lend to consumers despite having toxic waste in their balance sheets, shareholders ought to punish management, not taxpayers.
Other Economic Stats:
Pending Home Sales fell by 4.6% to 89.6; this indicates that the level of activity in the housing market is 10% lower than it was in 2001.
The big story was the Non-farm Payrolls report, which showed a 240,000 fall in aggregate non-farm employment.
Heckuva job, Bushie - half a million fewer Americans employed in the last two months, and almost a million and a half jobs lost this year. The (highly manipulated) Unemployment Rate - now at 6.5% - is the highest in 16 years.
The Non-farm payroll number was an 'improvement' on the prior month, which was revised downward from -159,000 to -284,000. Had the prior month not been revised, the 'delta' for non-farm payrolls would have made market participants very nervy. So the political class revised history to make the current observation look good by comparison - as usual, your scumbag overlords have no qualms about massaging the data.
Fed Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed another liquidity drain - a 3 Days reverse repurchase totalling $25bn, all in Treasury-backed collateral.
Headline Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +248.02 points (2.85%) to 8943.81 points. The index high for the day was 8961.57, while the low was 8696.03.
Within the index, 28 issues rose; advancing volume was 847.67m shares. Only 2 Dow components fell, but the combined to post declining volume of 132.83m units.
Contributing to the advance were -
- AIG (AIG) +0.24 (12.8%) to $2.11 on volume of 72.94m shares;
- Alcoa (AA) +0.93 (9.1%) to $11.19 on volume of 19.3m shares;
- Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +4.39 (6.3%) to $73.95 on volume of 44.16m shares;
- Intel (INTC) +0.76 (5.5%) to $14.63 on volume of 72.57m shares; and
- Du Pont (DD) +1.45 (5%) to $30.46 on volume of 7.65m shares.
The S&P500 Index advanced +26.11 points (2.89%) to 930.99 points. The total volume traded in the index was 3.91bn units. Within the index, 416 issues rose and 72 fell. Advancing volume was 2.99bn units and declining volume was 923.37m units.
The major advancers in the S&P500 were -
- AES Corp. (AES) +1.87 (28.3%) to $8.48 on volume of 12.83m shares;
- CB Richard Ellis Group (CBG) +1.43 (25.2%) to $7.1 on volume of 10.63m shares;
- Fluor Corp. (New) (FLR) +7.02 (20.6%) to $41.03 on volume of 11.39m shares;
- NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) +1.1 (14.4%) to $8.72 on volume of 28.14m shares; and
- AutoNationInc. (AN) +0.78 (13.5%) to $6.55 on volume of 3.37m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 38.70 points (2.41%) to 1647.40 points, while the Nasdaq100 advanced 29.65 points (2.39%) to 1271.62 points..
The Nasdaq100 index (NDX) contains 100 components; the total volume traded in the index was 910.29m units. Within the index, 84 issues rose, trading a combined volume of 684.19m units; 14 issues fell, posting declining volume of 180.27m units.
The top 5 gainers in the Nasdaq100 index were
- Discovery Holding Co (DISCA) +2 (16.5%) to $14.09 on volume of 5.19m shares;
- NVIDIA (NVDA) +1.1 (14.4%) to $8.72 on volume of 28.14m shares;
- VeriSign (VRSN) +1.7 (8.7%) to $21.25 on volume of 4.46m shares;
- Hansen Natural (HANS) +1.89 (8.2%) to $24.9 on volume of 2.35m shares; and
- Liberty Media (LINTA) +0.34 (8%) to $4.57 on volume of 10.41m shares.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 7.58 points (11.9%) to 56.10 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 7.56 points (12.06%) to 55.14 points..
Breadth and Internals
A total of 3524 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 4.97bn shares. A total of 2385 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 3.71bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 1048 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 1.18bn shares. 5 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 152 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
On the Nasdaq 2972 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.88bn shares. A total of 1781 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.37bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1074 losers, and total declining volume was 460m shares. 5 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 179 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8943.81 | +248.02 | 2.85% |
| S&P500 Index | 930.99 | +26.11 | 2.89% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1647.40 | +38.70 | 2.41% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1271.62 | +29.65 | 2.39% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 56.10 | -7.58 | -11.9% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 55.14 | -7.56 | -12.06% |
Dow Darlings
- Alcoa (AA) +0.93 (9.1%) to $11.19 on volume of 19.3m units
- Exxon-Mobil (XOM) +4.39 (6.3%) to $73.95 on volume of 44.3m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.76 (5.5%) to $14.63 on volume of 72.7m units
- Du Pont (DD) +1.45 (5%) to $30.46 on volume of 7.7m units
- Chevron (CVX) +3.35 (4.8%) to $73.46 on volume of 15.7m units
Dow Duds:
- General Motors (GM) -0.44 (9.2%) to $4.36 on volume of 83.5m units
- JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.51 (1.3%) to $37.75 on volume of 49.7m units
Most Traded Dow stocks:
- Citigroup (C) +0.3 (2.6%) to $11.82 on volume of 99m units
- General Motors (GM) --0.44 (9.2%) to $4.36 on volume of 83.5m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.37 (1.8%) to $20.49 on volume of 81.2m units
- General Electric (GE) +0.52 (2.8%) to $18.86 on volume of 78.5m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.76 (5.5%) to $14.63 on volume of 72.7m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures advanced modestly - looks like next week is the tipping point, but we'll need the Commitments of Traders data to be sure -
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 736.5 | 4.3 | 0.59 |
| Silver | 10.02 | -0.035 | -0.35 |
| Palladium | 224.05 | 1.45 | 0.65 |
| Platinum | 856.4 | 18.1 | 2.16 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; the total volume traded in the index was 89.55m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 78.21m units; 1 stock fell, with aggregate volume of 4.9m units.
Today the index rose by 3.29 points (4.02%) to 85.16 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +2.71 (9.1%) to $32.35 on volume of 2.79m shares;
- Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) +0.49 (7.9%) to $6.66 on volume of 3.88m shares;
- RandGold Resources (GOLD) +2.11 (7.3%) to $30.86 on volume of 0.96m shares;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) +0.35 (5.4%) to $6.89 on volume of 1.77m shares; and
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU) +0.83 (4.9%) to $17.92 on volume of 1.76m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures were mixed - we have almost certainly seen the low in Crude, but as with the Precious MEtals, much depends on the Dumb Bull Ratio which I calculate from the CoT reports.-
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 61.03 | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| Heating Oil | 1.9808 | 0.0384 | 1.98 |
| Natural Gas | 6.798 | -0.181 | -2.59 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 1.35 | 0.014 | 1.05 |
| Ethanol | 1.722 | -0.011 | -0.63 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components; the total volume traded in the index was 88.44m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 86.02m units; 1 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 2.42m units.
Today the index rose by 4.73 points (3.3%) to 148.13 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Schlumberger (SLB) +3.23 (6.7%) to $51.38 on volume of 11.59m shares;
- Halliburton (HAL) +1.19 (6.5%) to $19.44 on volume of 15.72m shares;
- Weatherford International (WFT) +0.89 (6.3%) to $15.1 on volume of 9.02m shares;
- Smith International (SII) +1.42 (4.6%) to $32.05 on volume of 2.64m shares; and
- Rowan Co (RDC) +0.8 (4.4%) to $18.8 on volume of 3.64m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures were all over the shop - up, down and sideway during the session, but settling largely unchanged. Calm before the storm...
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 86.485 | 0.025 | 0.03 |
| Euro FX | 1.2729 | 0.0013 | 0.1 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.8501 | -0.0006 | -0.07 |
| Soybeans | 921 | 15 | 1.66 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.672 | 0.0039 | 0.58 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8409 | -0.0001 | -0.01 |
| Japanese Yen | 1.02 | -0.0038 | -0.37 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.5876 | -0.0005 | -0.09 |
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 2.6%. The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +0.52 (2.84%) to $18.86 on volume of 78.48m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.30 (2.6%) to $11.82 on volume of 98.96m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.90 (1.68%) to $54.39 on volume of 19.31m units.
- IBM (IBM) +1.12 (1.32%) to $86.27 on volume of 7.82m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.76 (5.48%) to $14.63 on volume of 72.65m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.64 (3.78%) to $17.58 on volume of 63.95m units.
- Google (GOOG) -0.08 (0.02%) to $331.14 on volume of 4.64m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.03 (4.23%) to $0.74 on volume of 13.4m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.01 (1.18%) to $0.86 on volume of 8.98m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 670.91m units. Within the index, 13 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 340.16m units; 10 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 330.75m units.
Today the index rose by 0.41 points (0.77%) to 53.62 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- State Street (STT) +2.71 (6.7%) to $42.97 on volume of 4.72m shares;
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +0.58 (5.7%) to $10.69 on volume of 7.59m shares;
- Suntrust Banks (STI) +1.7 (4.6%) to $38.68 on volume of 5.34m shares;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) +1.55 (4.1%) to $38.95 on volume of 2.71m shares; and
- Wachovia (WB) +0.19 (3.5%) to $5.57 on volume of 68.47m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 220.98m units. Within the index, 15 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 192.67m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 28.31m units.
Today the index rose by 3.75 points (1.71%) to 223.19 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Infineon Tech (IFX) +0.3 (9.5%) to $3.46 on volume of 1.34m shares;
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +0.41 (5.6%) to $7.78 on volume of 13.6m shares;
- Intel (INTC) +0.76 (5.5%) to $14.63 on volume of 72.57m shares;
- ST Microelectronic (STM) +0.43 (5.4%) to $8.41 on volume of 1.28m shares; and
- Applied Materials (AMAT) +0.41 (3.8%) to $11.3 on volume of 17.18m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 107.86m units. Within the index, 14 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 106.12m units; 2 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 1.68m units.
Today the index rose by 2.87 points (1.11%) to 261.45 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +1.26 (3.9%) to $33.95 on volume of 0.14m shares;
- Rockwell Collins (COL) +1.17 (3.4%) to $35.09 on volume of 0.87m shares;
- General Electric (GE) +0.52 (2.8%) to $18.86 on volume of 78.06m shares;
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) +1.93 (2.5%) to $78.75 on volume of 2.49m shares; and
- United Technologies (UTX) +1.2 (2.4%) to $51.81 on volume of 5.91m shares.
