Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Sunday, November 30, 2008

USRant: Half-Day Friday...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I have been slowly working my way through the writings of Thomas Jefferson and Tom Paine. To my way of thinking Paine gets the nod for keeping his behaviour consistent with his ideals, but Jefferson had a real gift for rhetoric. 

It's very interesting reading Paine after, say, J.S. Mill: Mill's "On Liberty" was written about 89 years after the American War of Independence, and 60 years after the death of Paine. Yet somehow Mill fails to 'get' what Paine (and to a lesser extent, Jefferson) was on about.

For consistency, Paine gets the nod over Jefferson primarily because Paine was anti-slavery and Jefferson owned slaves despite going on endlessly about rights to men of liberty and such like. Paine also excoriated Washington, thinking him a second-rate leader and a mountebank to boot. And like your Beloved GT, Paine just could not keep his trap shut. His 'thoughts on Religion' amount to a quasi-Atheist text, with Paine's "One God" very much a fig-leaf. 

Had Paine done as Twain did, and published his religious thoughts posthumously, there is a good chance that Paine would be much more famous today. Paine died in relative obscurity - this man who helped both the US and French Revolutions... the French made him a citizen and elected him to their parliament - then condemned him to death when he spoke against the massacre of the French aristocracy.

Jefferson, by contrast, is probably the most-quoted of the US presidents. Among my favourite Jeffersonisms is his response when informed about Shays' Rebellion (where the new US government sent 15,000 soldiers - led by Washington - against the people of Massachusetts who refused to pay a new Whisky Tax) :

A little rebellion now and then is a good thing. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government. God forbid that we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion

Contrast that with the response of the president at the time, Samuel Adams. Adams was one of the leaders of the Revolutionary movement, who helped lead the Boston Tea Party (a protest against tax). He first came to real prominence during his opposition to the Sugar Act of 1764.

So he was all for 'throwing off the tyrant's yoke' - until he was the tyrant. His view of Shay and his protesters:

Rebellion against a king may be pardoned or lightly punished, but the man who dares to rebel against the laws of a republic ought to suffer death.

In other words, a President ought to have more deference than a King. In other words "I'm just another scumbag politician now, peon". And the US has gone downhill ever since.

And we must remember two other Jefferson quotes:

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants

and

I have sworn upon the Altar of God, Eternal Hostility against every form of Tyranny over the Mind of Man.

My own version of Jefferson's Oath drops the reference to God. I make no claims regarding my sanity, but I do not hear voices from the sky nor do I believe that an invisible Sky Wizard directs the affairs of men.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) gained 102.43 points (1.17%) to 8829.04 points. The index high for the day was 8831.35, while the low was 8672.69. Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 695.75m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 3.3 to one, with 23 advancers to 7 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 584.46m to 111.29m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Citigroup (C) +1.24 (17.6%) to $8.29 on volume of 251.41m shares;
  • General Motors (GM) +0.43 (8.9%) to $5.24 on volume of 35.35m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) +0.98 (6.1%) to $17.17 on volume of 59.03m shares;
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.82 (5.3%) to $16.25 on volume of 52.96m shares; and
  • American Express (AXP) +1.01 (4.5%) to $23.31 on volume of 7.16m shares.


The S&P500 index (SPX) advanced 8.56 points (0.96%) to 896.24 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 2.25bn shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 1.9 to one, with 313 advancers to 167 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 1.59bn to 570.29m shares. The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.45 (63.4%) to $1.16 on volume of 98.61m shares;
  • Federal Home Loan Mtg. (FRE) +0.39 (49.4%) to $1.18 on volume of 48.04m shares;
  • Convergys Corp. (CVG) +1.58 (33.5%) to $6.29 on volume of 1.8m shares;
  • Ford Motor (F) +0.54 (25.1%) to $2.69 on volume of 119.91m shares; and
  • Genl Growth Properties (GGP) +0.22 (19%) to $1.38 on volume of 6.19m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite added +3.47 points (0.23%) to 1535.57 points while the Nasdaq100 index (NDX) fell -7.34 points (0.62%) to 1185.75 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the Nasdaq100 was 378.33m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 1.1 to one, with 51 decliners to 45 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 200.23m to 172.43m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Flextronics International (FLEX) -0.16 (6.4%) to $2.34 on volume of 5.99m shares;
  • Research in Motion (RIMM) -2.23 (5%) to $42.47 on volume of 9.01m shares;
  • Baidu.com (BIDU) -6.87 (4.8%) to $135.88 on volume of 2.28m shares;
  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) -0.95 (4.7%) to $19.06 on volume of 2.19m shares; and
  • Broadcom (BRCM) -0.7 (4.4%) to $15.31 on volume of 4.27m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index rose +0.36 points (0.66%) to 55.28 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index rose +0.79 points (1.43%) to 56.05 points.

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3480 issues traded on the NYSE; total volume was 2.86bn shares. A total of 2267 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 2.05bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 1133 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 0.79bn shares. 11 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 31 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2836 tickers traded; total Nasdaq volume was 790m shares. A total of 1787 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 420m shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 911 losers, and total declining volume was 340m shares. 8 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 53 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8829.04 +102.43 1.17%
S&P500 Index 896.24 +8.56 0.96%
Nasdaq Composite 1535.57 +3.47 0.23%
Nasdaq100 1185.75 -7.34 -0.62%
CBOE Volatility Index 55.28 +0.36 0.66%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 56.05 +0.79 1.43%

Dow Darlings

  • Citigroup (C) +1.24 (17.6%) to $8.29 on volume of 251.4m units
  • General Motors (GM) +0.43 (8.9%) to $5.24 on volume of 35.4m units
  • General Electric (GE) +0.98 (6.1%) to $17.17 on volume of 59m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.82 (5.3%) to $16.25 on volume of 53m units
  • American Express (AXP) +1.01 (4.5%) to $23.31 on volume of 7.2m units

Dow Duds:

  • Home Depot (HD) -0.44 (1.9%) to $23.11 on volume of 10.3m units
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) -0.81 (1.4%) to $55.88 on volume of 9.1m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) -0.27 (1.3%) to $20.22 on volume of 31.4m units
  • Intel (INTC) -0.17 (1.2%) to $13.8 on volume of 28.4m units
  • Chevron (CVX) -0.92 (1.2%) to $79.01 on volume of 8.7m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Citigroup (C) +1.24 (17.6%) to $8.29 on volume of 251.4m units
  • General Electric (GE) +0.98 (6.1%) to $17.17 on volume of 59m units
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.82 (5.3%) to $16.25 on volume of 53m units
  • General Motors (GM) +0.43 (8.9%) to $5.24 on volume of 35.4m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) --0.27 (1.3%) to $20.22 on volume of 31.4m units
Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced reasonably uniformly, with the exception of silver.

Precious Metals Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Gold 816.2 7.7 0.95
Silver 10.185 -0.035 -0.34
Palladium 192.6 2.2 1.16
Platinum 882.3 12.6 1.45

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) added 0.85 points (0.84%) to 101.59 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 44.01m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 3 to one, with 12 advancers to 4 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 31.62m to 12.39m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.43 (14.2%) to $3.45 on volume of 3.46m shares;
  • RandGold Resources (GOLD) +2.44 (6.8%) to $38.23 on volume of 0.72m shares;
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) +0.32 (5.8%) to $5.81 on volume of 8.71m shares;
  • Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +1.96 (5.5%) to $37.66 on volume of 2.07m shares; and
  • Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +0.01 (1.5%) to $0.68 on volume of 2.76m shares.
Energy Complex

Energy futures were weak - particularly in NatGas and RBOB.

Energy Futures
Commodity Close Gain(Loss) %
Crude Oil 54.43 -0.01 -0.02
Heating Oil 1.7271 -0.0345 -1.96
Natural Gas 6.51 -0.368 -5.35
Gasoline RBOB 1.1462 -0.0336 -2.85
Ethanol 1.655 0.012 0.73

The Oil Services index (OSX) lost -0.86 points (0.62%) to 137.66 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 37.71m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 2.8 to one, with 11 decliners to 4 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 22.04m to 15.67m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Global Industries (GLBL) -0.16 (5.1%) to $2.95 on volume of 0.67m shares;
  • Cameron International (CAM) -0.9 (4.1%) to $21.1 on volume of 1.33m shares;
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) -0.5 (3.3%) to $14.5 on volume of 2.1m shares;
  • Tidewater (TDW) -0.84 (2.1%) to $39.48 on volume of 0.32m shares; and
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -0.47 (1.6%) to $28.29 on volume of 4.42m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures saw the Euro sold sharply - in anticipation of a larger monetary eaasing in Europe when the ECB meets this week. The USD has topped though - the Euro long position from a month ago is still solid. The AUD long from as week ago continues to make great strides.

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
U.S. Dollar Index 86.705 0.97 1.13
Euro FX 1.27 -0.0174 -1.35
Swiss Franc 0.8241 -0.0079 -0.95
Australian Dollar 0.6555 0.0045 0.69
Canadian Dollar 0.8061 -0.006 -0.74
Japanese Yen 1.0465 -0.0013 -0.12
New Zealand Dollar 0.5486 -0.0032 -0.58

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 15%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) +0.98 (6.05%) to $17.17 on volume of 59.03m units.
  • Citigroup (C) +1.24 (17.59%) to $8.29 on volume of 251.41m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) -0.81 (1.43%) to $55.88 on volume of 9.07m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -0.07 (0.09%) to $81.60 on volume of 3.91m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.17 (1.22%) to $13.80 on volume of 28.36m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.15 (0.92%) to $16.54 on volume of 22.48m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +0.87 (0.3%) to $292.96 on volume of 2.57m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.45 (63.38%) to $1.16 on volume of 98.61m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.39 (49.37%) to $1.18 on volume of 48.04m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) gained 1.46 points (3.15%) to 47.87 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 432.42m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 6.3 to one, with 19 advancers to 3 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 397.5m to 21.19m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • Citigroup Inc (C) +1.24 (17.6%) to $8.29 on volume of 251.41m shares;
  • New M&I Corporation (MI) +1.13 (7.9%) to $15.45 on volume of 1.51m shares;
  • Comerica Inc (CMA) +1.27 (6%) to $22.55 on volume of 1.37m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) +0.495 (5.6%) to $9.38 on volume of 2.65m shares; and
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +0.82 (5.3%) to $16.25 on volume of 52.96m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) fell -3.06 points (1.52%) to 198.24 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 92.24m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 2.4 to one, with 12 decliners to 5 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 62.38m to 27.26m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Infineon Tech (IFX) -0.28 (10.6%) to $2.35 on volume of 0.92m shares;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.56 (7.8%) to $6.61 on volume of 1.19m shares;
  • Broadcom (BRCM) -0.7 (4.4%) to $15.31 on volume of 4.27m shares;
  • Altera (ALTR) -0.54 (3.5%) to $14.71 on volume of 3.47m shares; and
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) -0.53 (2.6%) to $19.95 on volume of 2.22m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) rose 7.03 points (2.89%) to 250.44 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 73.41m shares. Advancers outpaced decliners by 15 to one, with 15 advancers to 1 decliners. Advancing volume exceeded declining volume by 73.1m to 0.25m shares The biggest gainers (percentage-wise) were -

  • General Electric (GE) +0.98 (6.1%) to $17.17 on volume of 59.03m shares;
  • Esterline Tech (ESL) +1.86 (5.3%) to $36.91 on volume of 0.15m shares;
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) +3.58 (4.9%) to $77.11 on volume of 1.26m shares;
  • Gencorp (GY) +0.1 (3.6%) to $2.86 on volume of 0.17m shares; and
  • Raytheon (RTN) +1.66 (3.5%) to $48.8 on volume of 1.42m shares.