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Yesterday's OzRant was fairly unambiguous regarding the expectation for yet another burst of manipulation of the new, Leninised, financial system of the Declining States of America.
To recap, we reasoned as follows:
Anyhow... the reason I mention that it's a holiday, is that the Yank Banks will probably use the thin trade in tonight's afternoon session to goose the living beJeebus out of their markets. Accordingly it would be a very good idea to short the 30-year bond as soon as poss (it's sitting above 127 again - just asking for it, your Honour).
That post went out at about 7:30 a.m. French time, or 5:34 p.m. Strayan time, or 12:34 a.m. Chicago time... and so on.
In any case, it was well before the US market opened. At the time the bond was trading at 127-18 (the "-18" suffix indicates "and 18/32nds", indicating that the price was 127.5625). By 7:30 a.m. Chicago time, it had dipped as low as 117-01 (yay for me), but thereafter it rocketed, climbing as high as 128-24 (boo.) before closing at 127-29.
Carrying an 11-tick loss across a holiday might cause a pinching sensation around the vord area if you're sensitive, but those who held it will feel like champions within a week.
You might be somewhat irked by the fact that the US market rallied pretty much right through the day - when I clearly said that the goosing would happen in the afternoon. Well, maybe you have a point... but I would point out that the market was about unchanged at 2 p.m., and thereafter rose 200 points in a goosing completely uninterrupted by pullbacks or common sense of any description.
Economic News
It was quite a heavy slate, data wise.
The Durable Goods report was a doozy, showing a decline of 6.2% when consensus had made a guess of -2.5%. Still, the only number we ever look at in this report is...
Come on, dear Reader... you know this...
Non-Defence CapEx Ex Aircraft.
For this report, even that number was woeful - a 2.5% contraction.
Initial Jobless Claims showed that another half-million Americans found themselves claiming the dole. In fact it was 529,000 - which was better than expectations.
Personal Income rose 0.3% for the month, although wage and salary income rose by a scant 0.1%. Personal Spending actually fell by 1% - much worse than expectations of a 0.6% decline.
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was revised downward from 57.9 to 55.3 - consensus had expected no change.
The Chicago PMI fell off a cliff - dropping to 33.8 from 37.8 a month ago. Consensus had expected it to rise to 39.0, so that wasn't very good, now was it?
And finally - New Home Sales dropped to 433,000 from the prior month's 457,000; consensus had expected a more modest drop to 450,000... but the fall was to levels not seen since 1992 (or thereabouts). The median price of a new home dropped 7%.
Headline Indices
After dropping at the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average staged a 'coast to coast' rally, finishing with a gain of 247.14 points (2.91%) to 8726.61 points - closing at its high tick of the day, more than 400 points above the day's low. The index high for the day was 8726.61, while the low was 8311.17.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) contains 30 components; the total volume traded in the index was 1.34bn units. Within the index, 28 issues rose and 2 fell. Advancing volume was 1.31bn units and declining volume was a paltry 33.1m units.
The three biggest percentage gainer in the Dow are the three biggest corporate basket-cases in the planet:
- General Motors (GM) +1.25 (35.1%) to $4.81 on volume of 101.22m shares;
- Citigroup (C) +0.97 (16%) to $7.05 on volume of 381.05m shares;
- AIG (AIG) +0.18 (10.2%) to $1.95 on volume of 57.91m shares;
- Alcoa (AA) +0.78 (8%) to $10.48 on volume of 18.14m shares; and
- Verizon (VZ) +1.96 (6.4%) to $32.54 on volume of 24.64m shares.
The S&P500 Index advanced 30.29 points (3.53%) to 887.68 points; total volume traded in the index was 4.47bn units. Within the index, 435 issues rose and 49 fell. Advancing volume was 4.19bn units - more than 15 times declining volume (which was 262.67m units).
The major percentage gainers in the index were - as with the Dow - the most profoundly dysfunctional enterprises in the history of humanity...
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.24 (51.1%) to $0.71 on volume of 113.47m shares;
- Federal Home Loan Mtg. (FRE) +0.26 (49.1%) to $0.79 on volume of 49.8m shares;
- General Motors (GM) +1.25 (35.1%) to $4.81 on volume of 101.22m shares;
- Ford Motor (F) +0.49 (29.5%) to $2.15 on volume of 172.48m shares; and
- AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS) +1.74 (25.4%) to $8.6 on volume of 9.54m shares.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 67.37 points (4.6%) to 1532.10 points and the Nasdaq100 added 50.51 points (4.42%) to 1193.09 points..
The Nasdaq100 index (NDX) contains 100 components; the total volume traded in the index was pretty weak at 870.23m units. Within the index, 94 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 854.7m units; 3 issues fell, with aggregate volume of 13.38m units.
Contributing to the advance were -
- Liberty Media (LINTA) +0.44 (20.4%) to $2.6 on volume of 5.83m shares;
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) +0.029 (19.9%) to $0.175 on volume of 43.1m shares;
- Leap Wireless International (LEAP) +3.09 (18.5%) to $19.82 on volume of 0.88m shares;
- Expedia (EXPE) +1.11 (15.6%) to $8.23 on volume of 3.62m shares; and
- Baidu.com (BIDU) +18.72 (15.1%) to $142.75 on volume of 4.74m shares.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index lost 5.98 points (9.82%) to 54.92 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 4.45 points (7.45%) to 55.26 points..
Breadth and Internals
A total of 3751 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 2.11bn shares. A total of 3100 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 1.41bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 581 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 0.66bn shares. 18 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 91 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.
On the Nasdaq 2981 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 1.95bn shares. A total of 2274 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 1.82bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 594 losers, and total declining volume was 0.12bn shares. 6 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 128 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8726.61 | +247.14 | 2.91% |
| S&P500 Index | 887.68 | +30.29 | 3.53% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1532.10 | +67.37 | 4.6% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1193.09 | +50.51 | 4.42% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 54.92 | -5.98 | -9.82% |
| CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index | 55.26 | -4.45 | -7.45% |
Dow Darlings
- General Motors (GM) +1.25 (35.1%) to $4.81 on volume of 101.4m units
- Citigroup (C) +0.97 (16%) to $7.05 on volume of 381.1m units
- Alcoa (AA) +0.78 (8%) to $10.48 on volume of 18.1m units
- Verizon (VZ) +1.96 (6.4%) to $32.54 on volume of 24.6m units
- Intel (INTC) +0.84 (6.4%) to $13.97 on volume of 69.8m units
Dow Duds:
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -0.43 (0.7%) to $58.27 on volume of 18.2m units
- Procter & Gamble (PG) -0.02 (0%) to $63.16 on volume of 14.9m units
Most Traded Dow stocks:
- Citigroup (C) +0.97 (16%) to $7.05 on volume of 381.1m units
- Bank Of America (BAC) +0.63 (4.3%) to $15.43 on volume of 118.5m units
- General Motors (GM) +1.25 (35.1%) to $4.81 on volume of 101.4m units
- General Electric (GE) +0.42 (2.7%) to $16.19 on volume of 82.4m units
- Microsoft (MSFT) +0.5 (2.5%) to $20.49 on volume of 74m units
Precious Metals
Precious metals futures took a breather -
| Precious Metals Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 815 | -3.5 | -0.43 |
| Silver | 10.31 | 0.04 | 0.39 |
| Palladium | 192.5 | -3.7 | -1.89 |
| Platinum | 874.6 | 3 | 0.34 |
The Gold Bugs index (XAU) contains 16 components; all 16 rose today, and total volume traded in the index was 115.58m units.
Today the index rose by 5.81 points (6.12%) to 100.74 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) +0.43 (16.6%) to $3.02 on volume of 8.03m shares;
- Silver Stand Resources (SSRI) +1.18 (13.1%) to $10.19 on volume of 1.27m shares;
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +0.07 (11.7%) to $0.67 on volume of 7.65m shares;
- Freeport McMoran (FCX) +2.27 (9.8%) to $25.33 on volume of 17.94m shares; and
- Yamana Gold (AUY) +0.47 (9.4%) to $5.49 on volume of 20.06m shares.
Energy Complex
Energy futures were all over the shop during the Asian session, but got up a head of steam in the US session -
| Energy Futures | |||
| Commodity | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Crude Oil | 54.83 | 4.06 | 8 |
| Heating Oil | 1.7667 | 0.0598 | 3.5 |
| Natural Gas | 6.793 | 0.407 | 6.37 |
| Gasoline RBOB | 1.1875 | 0.0926 | 8.46 |
| Ethanol | 1.643 | 0.036 | 2.24 |
The Oil Services index (OSX) contains 15 components, all of which registered a gain for the day. Total volume traded in the index was 91.05m units.
Today the index rose by 11.17 points (8.77%) to 138.52 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Weatherford International (WFT) +1.83 (16.7%) to $12.79 on volume of 13.83m shares;
- Rowan Co (RDC) +2.19 (14.3%) to $17.49 on volume of 4.45m shares;
- Global Industries (GLBL) +0.38 (13.9%) to $3.11 on volume of 1.53m shares;
- BJ Services (BJS) +1.41 (13.6%) to $11.77 on volume of 7.07m shares; and
- Nabors Industries (NBR) +1.63 (12.2%) to $15 on volume of 7.64m shares.
Currency Futures
Currency futures lent a bounce-bid to the USD after a few sessions of weakness. Don't fret though - the long AUD position is up a little under 4 grand in four sessions.
| Currency Futures | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 85.795 | 0.735 | 0.86 |
| Euro FX | 1.2874 | -0.0144 | -1.11 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.832 | -0.0105 | -1.25 |
| Australian Dollar | 0.651 | 0.005 | 0.77 |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8121 | -0.0019 | -0.23 |
| Japanese Yen | 1.0478 | 0.0017 | 0.16 |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.5518 | 0.0079 | 1.45 |
Bellwethers
The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 15.5%, biased upwards by the pop in dross like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (they're still lsited, so they stay in the list). The fallout occurred as follows:
- General Electric (GE) +0.42 (2.66%) to $16.19 on volume of 82.41m units.
- Citigroup (C) +0.97 (15.95%) to $7.05 on volume of 381.06m units.
- Wal-Mart (WMT) +2.01 (3.68%) to $56.69 on volume of 23.3m units.
- IBM (IBM) +1.02 (1.26%) to $81.67 on volume of 7.99m units.
- Intel (INTC) +0.84 (6.4%) to $13.97 on volume of 69.83m units.
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +0.97 (6.29%) to $16.39 on volume of 54.55m units.
- Google (GOOG) +10.04 (3.56%) to $292.09 on volume of 6.34m units.
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +0.24 (51.06%) to $0.71 on volume of 113.5m units.
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +0.26 (49.06%) to $0.79 on volume of 49.8m units.
Other Indices of Interest...
The Banks index (BKX) contains 24 components; the total volume traded in the index was 781.72m units and every index component posted a gain.
Today the index rose by 1.75 points (3.92%) to 46.41 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Citigroup Inc (C) +0.97 (16%) to $7.05 on volume of 381.05m shares;
- Wachovia (WB) +0.42 (8%) to $5.65 on volume of 43.8m shares;
- State Street (STT) +2.9 (7.7%) to $40.65 on volume of 5.77m shares;
- Northern Trust (NTRS) +2.85 (6.9%) to $44.41 on volume of 2.35m shares; and
- Wells Fargo (WFC) +1.7 (6.3%) to $28.65 on volume of 56.41m shares.
The Semiconductor index (SOX) contains 18 components; the total volume traded in the index was 235.16m units. Within the index, 17 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 233.33m units; 1 stock fell, with aggregate volume of 1.82m units.
Today the index rose by 14.28 points (7.64%) to 201.3 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +0.33 (18.3%) to $2.13 on volume of 23.94m shares;
- KLA-Tencor Cp (KLAC) +2.1 (12.3%) to $19.12 on volume of 5.82m shares;
- Applied Materials (AMAT) +1.02 (11.7%) to $9.73 on volume of 26.63m shares;
- Sandisk (SNDK) +0.67 (9.7%) to $7.56 on volume of 9.23m shares; and
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) +1.01 (8.7%) to $12.63 on volume of 2.51m shares.
The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) contains 17 components; the total volume traded in the index was 115.43m units. Within the index, 16 issues rose, with aggregate volume of 115.37m units - the other stock was unchanged..
Today the index rose by 9.74 points (4.17%) to 243.41 points. Contributing to the advance were -
- Embraer Empresa (ERJ) +1.22 (8.3%) to $15.88 on volume of 0.66m shares;
- Esterline Tech (ESL) +2.66 (8.2%) to $35.05 on volume of 0.41m shares;
- FLIRr Systems (FLIR) +2.11 (7.4%) to $30.74 on volume of 1.95m shares;
- ITT Corporation (ITT) +2.33 (6.1%) to $40.83 on volume of 1.66m shares; and
- Teledyne Tech (TDY) +1.8 (4.7%) to $39.82 on volume of 0.2m shares.
